The AP, New York Times, and a number of other news media have called California’s US Congressional District 21 for incumbent Republican David Valadao, but the mail ballots counted since election day are putting the race close enough that Nate Silver now has changed it from a safe to likely Republican race.
www.nytimes.com/...
|
Vote |
% |
NYT Election Results CA CD-21
David Valadao-R (I) |
43,469 |
51.2% |
TJ Cox-D |
41,390 |
48.8% |
Valadao now has only a 2079 vote lead, according to NYT numbers though he had 57% of the vote election night.
In the latest update 11/12, 11,540 ballots were added from Kern County to the district total. Valadao gained 3,994 votes and Cox gained 7546, moving the Democrat from 46.4% to 48.9%.
As of early Wed. morning, Valadao (R) led ballots counted in Fresno Co. by 13 points. He's led ballots counted *since* then in Fresno Co. by just 2 points.
Cox (D) led the Kern Co. count on Election Night by 7 points. Ballots *since* then have come in for him by *27* points.
From 538:
twitter.com/...
Republican Rep. David Valadao leads Democrat T.J. Cox 51 percent to 49 percent in that one, but the Associated Press and ABC have both projected a Valadao win. (We still think there’s a narrow path to a Cox victory.)