Despite Republican Mike Braun’s 5.9 percent victory over incumbent Joe Donnelly in the Indiana US Senate race, Indiana Democrats had one bright spot on Tuesday night, one that showed the party missed what may have been it’s only path to victory statewide.
In the northern reaches of Indianapolis, and into its wealthy suburbs, Donnelly pulled off a stunning result. The one-term Senator came within eight points of winning historically Republican Hamilton County.
Hillary Clinton lost the county by 20 points in 2016 and Barack Obama twice lost it by nearly 30.
However, it was clear to see in statewide results that this was an outlier. A small pocket trending blue in a state trending ever-red.
Donnelly won just nine of Indiana’s 92 counties. Historically Democratic counties in the southern half of the state turned ever more red. The most notable fact of this was Braun’s victory in Perry County, which went for Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Gregg by nine points when he lost statewide by just six in 2016.
Donnelly embraced the national Democratic message on healthcare. It worked in suburban Hamilton, Boone and Porter counties but it failed in medium-sized urban centers that have defined the industrial makeup of the state.
In 2008, when Barack Obama won Indiana, these medium-sized urban centers like Terre Haute, Muncie, Anderson and Evansville helped carry him to a one-point victory statewide.
Ten years later, Donnelly still carried many of these cities, but the margins were not there to carry a Democrat to a statewide victory.
In Vigo County, where Obama won by 16 points, Donnelly carried the county by just 341 votes, or 1.1 percent. In Delaware County, home of Muncie, Obama’s 15 point victory was cut into a just a two point victory for Donnelly.
Democrats found deaf ears in the communities that they needed the most. No path to statewide victory has ever ran through Hamilton County and suburban Indiana.
Donnelly had his chances to run on issues that have tremendous impact on these communities. The opioid crisis has ravaged these old rust belt centers, and more than half of children statewide rely on medicaid. The economy is growing in these places, but not fast enough for many hardworking families.
Donnelly and Indiana Democrats missed a chance to craft a new path to victory statewide. But it’s there for the taking in 2020 and into the future.