The Feb. 27 GOP primary to succeed disgraced former Rep. Trent Franks in Arizona’s conservative 8th District is coming up quickly and early voting has in fact been underway for weeks, but there's still time for at least one big development. On Tuesday evening, the local NBC affiliate got hold of a series of flirtatious text messages sent between a cell phone associated with one of the leading Republican candidates, former state Sen. Steve Montenegro, and a legislative staffer. The staffer sent Montenegro, who is married and a church minister, a picture of herself topless and said, "You have to delete these." Montenegro responded "SNAP," an apparent reference to Snapchat, an app where messages disappear after they're viewed.
In a later exchange that took place as news broke that Franks, who was Montenegro's old boss, was about to resign due to a sexual harassment scandal (though we didn't learn the full extent of his transgressions until later), Montenegro asked the staffer to call him. When she messaged back asking if "someone call[ed] you out," Montenegro said no. When asked if he's "afraid someone might," Montenegro responded, "Just lining my ducks in order." The staffer then texted, "Yeah, you would never have to worry about me. So I hope that puts you at some ease. I just saw the Trent Franks thing."
It’s not clear how the texts emerged, but Montenegro quickly issued an angry statement calling the story "a despicable example of the tabloid trash that conservatives around this country have to deal with on a regular basis." He even claimed that the media has it in for him because he’s a “Hispanic conservative.” When the Arizona Republic asked Montenegro's campaign what was false or distorted, they did not respond. However, two people who say they know the staffer tell the paper that she did in fact send those messages and the photo. The paper also notes that in the days before the report came out, Montenegro had begun skipping campaign events.
Despite its explosive nature, though, it’s hard to say what impact this story might have on this contest, if any. A big reason why this scandal might not do much is because plenty of votes have already been cast. Roll Call's Bridget Bowman writes that as of Friday, about 74,000 people had voted early. Officials estimate a total turnout in both parties’ primaries of 110,000 to 115,000, so somewhere around two-thirds of all votes have already been cast (depending on each side’s propensity to vote early versus on Election Day).
But there may still be enough votes outstanding to swing a close race—and this one does in fact appear to be tight. The last poll we saw, an early February survey from a local GOP firm with no direct involvement in the race showed Montenegro tied with fellow former state Sen. Debbie Lesko at 21 apiece, while former state Rep. Phil Lovas and former state Corporation Commissioner Bob Stump took 12 and 10, respectively. If voters who've waited to make up their minds decide they don't want another Trent Franks on their hands, that might tilt the outcome against Montenegro.
And the former congressman’s shadow still looms. Back in December, Franks abruptly resigned under very vague circumstances, but news soon broke that the congressman had, astonishingly, asked two female staffers to bear his children, and even offered to pay them $5 million to do so.
But—perhaps understandably, now—the scandal didn't seem to trouble Montenegro, who just days later proudly announced that he was running with his old boss' endorsement. And Montenegro has stuck with Franks on the campaign trail, too, even running a campaign ad that featured him with both Franks and Joe Arpaio.
Bizarre as it may seem, despite his stunning fall from grace, Franks may yet well be a net asset to Montenegro. Multiple GOP strategists told Bowman that they believe the former congressman is still popular here, and even a strategist for Lovas conceded Franks still has adherents, though he added plenty of people are embarrassed by his one-of-a-kind implosion. We’ll see if there are enough left to make a difference.