It’s been a long while since I last talked about the battle for the Michigan State House, so I wanted to spend some time looking at how things have shifted. I did a post-primary update to the State Senate already, so here’s my look at the State House. There are a few ratings changes, but it’s still largely the same, just with new analysis and campaign finance data. So let’s jump in:
Likely D: 23, 109
23rd District: Darrin Camilleri
This house district is located in southern Wayne County on the border of Monroe County, including Trenton and Grosse Ille, and it really shifted towards Republicans. Despite being an Obama/Peters seat, it went to Trump by 12 in 2016. That was almost enough to sink Democratic candidate Darrin Camilleri, who won by less than a point that same night in his quest to snag a seat in the State House. Camilleri is back for a re-election bid and luckily for him, his opponent is a Some Dude with 0 money in the bank. The close 2016 margin makes me hesitate to totally take it off the map, but the GOP nominee Frazier has been in the race for months and has gained zero traction, so Camilleri doesn’t appear to be in any real type of trouble this time around.
109th: Sara Cambensby
The 109th is our other Likely D seat and it is a light red one up in the UP. Centered on Marquette, it is the bluest UP house district with an R+4 PVI. Sara Cambensby won the 109th in a special election last fall, 56.7% to 42% and she’s a strong favorite to hang onto it in 2018 given that kind of impressive margin. Better yet, she will be facing Melody Wagner, who is also a Some Dude (or gal I suppose). I’ll leave it at Likely D because it is a Trump seat (he won it by 4), but it’s not really competitive now.
Lean D: 25, 40, 41, 62, 110
25th District: Open (Yanez)
Democrat Henry Yanez is leaving this Sterling Heights area seat open to run for State Senate, which means that Dems have to defend a tough R+3 seat. Sterling Heights shifted towards the GOP in 2016, with Trump winning HD-25 by 10 points. Yanez still won by a comfortable margin, so there is Dem strength downballot. The other good news for Dems that leaves the seat in Lean D is they have a good recruit. Nate Shannon, the Dem in the field, is a member of the Sterling Heights City Council, while the Republican nominee, Jazmine Early, has incredibly problematic views on Islam, making this race a Lean D contest.
40th District: Open (McCready)
The first of the three GOP seats I have rated as Lean Democratic is the 40th, located in Oakland County, specifically Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills. One of the wealthiest and most educated areas in the entire country, this is an area packed with Romney/Clinton voters. HD-40 supported both Clinton and Peters, with an EVEN PVI, and it’s an open seat in 2018, which is why it lands here. Democrats have a former Dingell staffer, Mari Manoogian, and she’s running a very good campaign, getting set to face David Wolkinson, former VP of the MI GOP, in the general election. While Wolkinson has a shot, Manoogian is the favorite, hence the Lean D rating.
41th District: Open (Howrylak)
Another open Oakland County district, HD-41 is also a Clinton seat, with an R+2 PVI, since Romney also won it in 2012 (by 4). Centered on Troy, MI, the 41st is another key battleground, and a great Democratic pickup opportunity. The Democratic nominee is IT analyst and Troy Planning Commission Member Padma Kuppa, who has raised a ton of money for this race. Her opponent is going to be Doug Tietz, an Oakland County Commissioner. Tietz is a good candidate but it’s just hard to see the GOP holding this seat, so we call this seat Lean D.
62nd District: Open (Bizon)
The 62nd is the most likely Democratic pickup in the Michigan State House. A D+1 seat in Calhoun County including Battle Creek, this went to Obama/Peters before Clinton lost it by just 2. That poor showing weighed down 2016 Dem. nominee for this seat, Jim Haadsma, who lost by 0.57%. Haadsma is back in 2018 and the incumbent he lost to is leaving the seat open. And that combination of Dem leaning open seat, favorable national environment, and strong Democratic candidate means this is a Lean D seat and a very good pickup opportunity. No changes since last time.
110th District: Open (Dianda)
This district is the western UP and it has an R+8 PVI. It’s also by far the reddest district that Democrats currently hold, and being an open seat with current Rep. Scott Dianda term limited, it would seemingly be a close race. But, Republicans did not field a legitimate candidate for this race, while Democrats very much did, and so it moves from Tossup → Lean D. The Republican is Gregory Markkanen, who has just $300 in the bank at the last reporting period, while Democrat Ken Summers, a nonprofit dude, has nearly $50,000 in the bank. Being a district that is bluer down ballot and a race where the spending is totally one-sided, the affair should clearly favor Dems, hence the rating.
Tossup: 17, 19, 20, 38, 39, 51, 61, 71, 79, 91, 99, 101, 104
17th District: Joseph Bellino
This Monroe-based district had one of the biggest 2016 shifts against Democrats anywhere in the state. It went from Obama +8 to Trump +18, in the process sweeping incumbent Democrat Bill LaVoy out of office at the hands of Joseph Bellino. Bellino is looking to snare a second term against LaVoy’s wife, Michelle Draeger LaVoy (Bill is running for an overlapping State Senate seat), who serves as Monroe (city) Clerk Treasurer. She profiles as a good candidate, with credentials and the LaVoy name, and Bellino only won by 8 in 2016, so this is a tossup seat and a good test of Obama/Trump voters. Still, Democrats would like to see more money flowing into the LaVoy campaign, as Bellino has been majorly outraising LaVoy for most of the campaign so far. For reference, there was an excellent article in the New York Times about this race and so you can read more about it.
19th District: Open (Cox)
This seat consists wholly of Livonia, a notoriously conservative suburb of Detroit in Wayne County. However, it is considerably more swingy now and Trump only won it by 8 in 2016 and it moved to the left when compared to the state as a whole that year. Incumbent Laura Cox is term limited and running for State Senate, giving Democrats an opportunity in an R+5 district. The Democratic nominee is activist Laurie Pohutsky, while the Republican nominee is Livonia City Councilman Brian Meakin. The fundraising is pretty similar between the two, and while I think the edge probably goes to the GOP here, the primary turnout did make me pause, as Democrats cast nearly 2,000 more votes than the Republicans in HD-19 in the August primary. This is the type of educated area where juiced Democratic turnout could tip the scales and so it remains a tossup.
20th District: Jeff Noble
Here’s one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities, an R+2 seat in outer Wayne County centered on Plymouth and Northville. Incumbent Republican Jeff Noble is a freshman Rep. and so he hasn’t quite established himself in this district. He did do rather well in 2016, winning by 7 in 2016 despite Clinton winning the district by 4. But in an anti-Trump midterm, being a suburban Republican is not a good thing and he’s facing a stiff challenge from teacher Matt Koleszar (D). Koleszar outraised Noble $27,000 to $4,000 in the last reporting period and Democrats outvoted Republicans in this district in the primary. This is the kind of seat Democrats need to flip to get a majority in the State House and for now it’s a tossup.
38th District: Kathy Crawford
This is an Oakland County district that includes Novi as well as parts of Northville and it has an R+4 PVI. Kathy Crawford won re-election by a healthy 58-42 margin in 2016, running a good deal ahead of Trump, who won the seat by 3.5. But, Crawford is not at all secure in this seat, as was shown in the primary when she eked out a 7 point win over Chase Turner. Given that, Democrats are gunning for this seat, and they have a solid candidate to do it, Novi City Councilwoman Kelly Breen. For some reason, there is very little money in this race, with both sides having shockingly little cash-on-hand, and thus it will probably come down to who runs a more active campaign. Given that it’s a suburban swing seat where Democrats outvoted Republicans in the primary and candidate quality is roughly similar, this is a tossup race.
39th District: Open (Kesto)
Klint Kesto is term limited out in this seat and decided to run for Congress (he lost the primary), which creates an open swing seat in Oakland County. HD-39 has an R+3 PVI and Trump won it by just 3.5 points in 2016. Geographically, it’s centered on Wixon and Commerce Township and it is another pivotal State House battleground. Democrats have lawyer and progressive activist Jennifer Suidan running for this seat, while Republicans have attorney Ryan Berman in the race. Both sides have about the same amount of cash-on-hand, so it’s hard to call this anything other than a tossup.
51st District: Open (Graves)
HD-51 is located in the non-Flint portions of Gennessee County, specifically Linden and Fenton, and those types of areas went hard for Trump. He won this district by 23 points, and Romney won it by 7, giving it a hefty R+10 PVI. However, Gary Peters did win here, and the big factor is that Dems have a solid recruit, former Linden Mayor David Lossing. Being a Mayor of one of the two cities in the district is a big asset, and with a background in politics, he is a good candidate. His fundraising, however, has sagged, causing me to pump the breaks a bit. That said, Republican candidate Mike Mueller hasn’t been blowing the fundraising out of the water either, so we’ll keep it in tossup.
61st District: Brandt Iden
Here’s another top pickup opportunity for Democrats. It’s a Calhoun County seat that includes Battle Creek and Albion and it has an EVEN PVI. Incumbent Republican Brandt Iden will be trying for a third and final term in the State House and he’s proven to be resilient, winning by 4 (49-45) in 2016 while Clinton won the seat by 5. However, surviving 2018 will be his toughest test yet, with the winds majorly at the backs of Democrats and a strong challenge from businesswoman Alberta Griffin. Iden has been prepping for this race for awhile, and he has over $100K in the bank. However, Griffin has been coming on strong, outraising Iden $40K to $4K in the last reporting period. Additionally, Democrats out voted Republicans by nearly 2,000 votes in the primary, showing some element of a pro-Dem enthusiasm bump, which should scare Iden. This is a seat Democrats need to win and it is one of the best opportunities in the entire state. Still, Iden’s strong incumbency makes us put this in the tossup column.
71st District: Open (Barret)
Speaking of top pickup opportunities, HD-71 is probably the closest seat to moving into the Lean D column. Held by term-limited Republican Tom Barrett, this is an R+1 seat that went to Obama by 4 and Trump by 2, making it a clear swing seat. It contains most of Eaton County and has a number of Lansing suburbs in it, making it fertile ground for a potential Democratic flip. In the August primary, Dems selected their strongest candidate, Angela Witwer, a member of the Waverly School board, while Republicans nominated small businessman Chuck Cascarilla. In terms of COH, it’s about even between the two, but in the last reporting period, Witwer spanked Cascarilla in fundraising. It’s another must-win seat for Democrats, and right now Team Blue is favored to pick this one up, but I’m not quite ready to move it out of tossup.
79th District: Open (LaSata)
This is a rating change from last time, moving from Lean R → Tossup, as Democrats have proven to have a strong enough candidate to win this R+4 southwest Michigan seat. HD-79 is centered around Benton Harbor and St. Joseph on the Lake Michigan coastline and it was a Trump +8 seat in 2016, so right in the territory of a potential wave. Democrats nominated Joey Andrews, a small businessman, while Republicans nominated Pauline Wendzel, who could best be described as a community activist and fruit enthusiast, the former 2007 Apple Queen. Andrews currently has a sizable edge in COH, but in the last reporting period, it was much more even. Given that this is a light pink seat, the GOP probably has the edge, but it looks close enough to call a tossup.
91st District: Open (Hughes)
This seat contains Muskegon County outside of the City of Muskegon itself and it has an R+4 PVI. Incumbent Holly Hughes ran for State Senate in this August’s primary (she lost), leaving this Obama +2/Trump +14 seat open for the fall 2018 elections. Republicans have nominated Greg VanWoerkom, a former staffer for US Rep. Bill Huizenga. Huizenga represents this area in Congress, but his base is not the Muskegon area, so on the face, VanWoerkom is not the strongest candidate. Still, he has a lot of money in the bank, and the fundraising of Democratic candidate Tanya Cabala is sagging. Cabala, a Whitehall City Council Member, is still very much in this race, but she needs to pick it up as the campaign hits the final stretch. This seat is too swingy to call anything other than a tossup in the environment that 2018 looks like, but it’s tilting a tad towards the GOP it seems.
99th District: Roger Hauck
Another notable surprise from primary night was when local businesswoman Kristen Brown upset Mount Pleasant Allison Quast-Lents to win the Democratic nomination to face Roger Hauck in this R+4 seat. Hauck won in 2016 by just 9 points so he is vulnerable despite being well funded. While Quast-Lents had more credentials, Brown has been able to raise more money and Democrats are arguably better off with Brown in this seat than the Mayor. Either way, this remains a tossup.
101st District: Open (VanderWall)
This district is comprised of 4 counties: Mason, Manistee, Benzie, Leelanau, on the northern coast of Lake Michigan. It has an R+6 PVI, and it has a fair bit of an Obama/Trump dynamic, voting for Romney by 2 but then Trump by 13. However, it is an open seat, Democrats appear to have a strong candidate, and it is bluer down ballot. First off, Curt VanderWall is term limited, leaving HD-101 open, and his 2016 race was only an 8 point race despite the top of the ticket result and the fact VanderWall had incumbency to his name. In a much more pro-D environment and no incumbent, that profiles as a tossup. Second, Democrats have nurse Kathy Wiejaczka, who is running a good campaign with a quite a bit of money in the bank. Republicans have a former radio host, Jack O’Malley, and he is going to need to close the cash gap as we get into the final few weeks of the campaign. All things considered, this looks like a pure tossup.
104th District: Larry Inman
This seat consists wholly of Grand Traverse County, with its biggest city being Traverse City, aka “The Pinky” of the LP. Inman won his first term in 2016 by a very unimpressive 51-43 margin, given that this is an R+8 district that Trump won by 12 points on the same day. Inman looks to be a pretty weak incumbent as a result, and his fundraising confirms that, as he has just $34 K COH and raised just $3.5 K in the last reporting period. Meanwhile, his challenger in 2018, attorney Dan O’Neill, has $93K in the bank and raised $31 K in the last period. That gap mitigates any potential incumbency advantage that Inman may have, and as a result, we call this seat a tossup.
Lean R: 24, 30, 66, 108
24th District: Steve Marino
This is a Macomb district including Commerce and Harrison Townships with an R+6 PVI. It is held by Republican Steve Marino, who won the seat as an open seat in 2016 by a 55-45 margin, running pretty close to Trump’s margins. He won’t be an easy out and he has a solid bit of cash in the bank. But the real reason this seat is favoring Marino is that there is still little evidence that Democratic nominee, Laura Winn, a businesswoman, has the skills to win the race. She is still raising very little money and in a reach type district, there just doesn’t seem to be enough here to make this a tossup, so Lean R feels right.
30th District: Diana Farrington
The most stunning result of all on primary night was the defeat of Democratic candidate Wisam Naoum in the primary. Naoum had been getting a lot of buzz for running a very good campaign, raising a ton of money and focusing on tapping into the district’s Chaldean community, which often gets overlooked. I had the general election with Farrington rated as a tossup in the last ratings batch. And then Naoum lost the primary. Not just did he lose, but he lost to a Some Dude, auto salesman John Spica. There was very little information on Spica on the internet at the time (now he has a campaign website) and he has 0 money in the bank. While the fact that Spica won the primary without being well known outside the district means that we shouldn’t discount the chance that he may be stronger on the ground than can be measured in quantitative ways, but it’s hard to argue that Democrats aren’t much worse off with Spica instead of Naoum. For what it’s worth, Farrington is a pretty weak incumbent in an R+7 Macomb seat, which made it gettable with the right candidate. But for the time being, Spica is not that candidate, so this moves from Tossup → Lean R.
66th District: Beth Griffin
This district consists of Van Buren County, along with a bit of Kalamazoo County. Republican Beth Griffin won it when it was an open seat in 2016 by a 54-46 margin, suggesting some potential vulnerability in a more challenging environment for R’s as 2018 is shaping up to be. With only an R+5 PVI, it’s exactly the type of seat that could fall in a large sized wave, but there aren’t the signs that it is truly competitive yet. Democrats have IT/computer science dude Dan Seibert running in this race and while he is running a legitimate campaign, his fundraising is not at the point that I can say this a tossup. Griffin retains an edge heading into the home stretch, and so we’ll say rate it as Lean R.
108th District: Beau LaFave
HD-108 is found in Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta counties in the UP. While the UP as a whole is rather red at the presidential level, it is significantly bluer down-ballot, as noted in HD-110 and HD-109, both of which Dems hold. Republicans hold HD-108, an R+12 PVI seat, but it’s not nearly as secure as the topline presidential results would indicate. Incumbent Republican Beau LaFave won his first term by just a 53-47 margin in 2016, running way behind Trump, and it leaves him potentially vulnerable this November. He’s set to face UAW dude Bob Romps, who is running a good campaign. Romps is closing the COH gap and outraised LaFave $12K to $1K in the last reporting period. It’s still too red for me to call a tossup, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if HD-108 flips on Election Night.
Likely R: 56, 85, 98, 106
56th District: Jason Sheppard
HD-56 is another one of the Monroe County districts that really moved away from Democrats in 2016, with narrow Obama/Peters losses being replaced with a titanic 24 point Clinton loss. It helped carry Jason Sheppard to an easy 20 point win, but there seems to be tougher competition this time around, in the form of Monroe County Democratic Treasurer Ernie Whiteside. While Whiteside has the ideal characteristics, he hasn’t raised nearly enough money to win and so this stays as Likely R.
85th District: Ben Frederick
Ths district is mostly Shiawassee County, but also some of the outer parts of Saginaw County. With only an R+7 PVI, it could be gettable for Democrats, but it is still a reach, especially with an incumbent (Ben Frederick) holding it down. Frederick breezed to an easy win in 2016 but recent college graduate Eric Sabin is not running a half bad campaign for a Trump +22 (and Obama +1) district. This seat is on the board but is comfortably a Likely R race.
98th District: Open (Glenn)
Bay County is one of the places in Michigan that is bluer down-ballot than it is at the top of the ticket, which makes HD-98 a closer race than the R+10 PVI might insinuate. That, plus an open seat and a credible Democratic challenger in the form of non-profit executive Sarah Schulz puts it sorta in play. Republican Annette Glenn won the primary and fundraising has been surprisingly close between her and Schulz, meaning this seat is now on the verge of Lean R territory, but I’ll keep it in Likely R.
106th District: Sue Allor
This is a northeastern Michigan district along the Lake Huron coast, with the largest city being Alpena. It has an R+12 PVI, but as is often the case with these northern Michigan districts, they are bluer down-ballot. Republican incumbent Sue Allor won convincingly in 2016 but she’s facing a more serious challenge this time around from lawyer Lora Greene. While Allor still has quite a bit more money in the bank, Greene outraised her significantly in the last reporting period and has a fair bit of enthusiasm for her campaign on the ground. Allor is still a clear favorite, but HD-106 moves onto the board.
Breakdown of the current state of play
Right now, the Democrats have about 5 GOP-held districts where they are probably favored: 62, 40, 41, 71, and 61, in that order. Beyond that, you can divide the districts between Metro Detroit and not. In the Metro Detroit area, I’ve heard good things from DKE’s own Mister Gloom about HD-17, HD-19, HD-20, and HD-38. These are all more educated seats with the exception of HD-17 and they showed big time Dem enthusiasm in the primary, with Democrats outvoting the GOP in all three of the “educated” seats and coming close in the Monroe-based HD-17. You can also include HD-39 in this grouping of seats, specifically the educated category. It is currently about a 50-50 race. Democrats probably need 2 of these 5 seats to get a majority, though 3 would be huge.
Outside of there, HD-101 and HD-104 will be fascinating because in less red districts, these two would be bordering on a Lean Dem rating. But their PVI’s are R+6 and R+8, respectively, so I don’t want to be too resolute in saying Democrats are favored here, despite having the stronger candidate in both cases. Getting 1 of these 2 seats would be huge for ensuring a Democratic majority.
Elsewhere, HD-51, HD-79, HD-91, are HD-99 all varying degrees of winnable for Democrats and Democrats would like to get at least one of these seats. In the Lean R column, HD-108 is probably the most gettable because of how fickle the UP is, though HD-30 is possible if John Spica pulls another rabbit out of the hat or a Dem turnout gap overpowers Steve Marino in HD-24. Any of these would be a cherry on top for Team Blue.
FInal Thoughts with just over 6 weeks to go
The battle for Michigan’s House of Representatives remains a tossup but I’m starting to think it is tilting towards Dems ever so slightly because of some classic loserspeak coming from Republican operatives in regards to the state legislature in recent days. While this is a brutally gerrymandered map, it feels like there are just enough opportunities that if things continue on the path they are on, there should be enough seats for Democrats to cobble together a majority in the State House. It makes sense statewide quite frankly. Gretchen Whitmer (D) looks like she may well blow Bill Schuette (R) out of the water in the Governor’s race, leading him by anywhere between 9 and 15 points in the most recent polls. Democrats also looked poised to flip the Secretary of State’s office and seem slightly favored in the Attorney General race. President Trump’s approval ratings are garbage statewide, Democratic enthusiasm in the primary was off the charts, and the statewide generic ballot is generally D+double digits, which is what it needs to be to flip this chamber (and the State Senate). Rating state legislatures is an inexact science and as the D primary in HD-30 showed us, there are plenty of surprises with the absence of polling. This is my best guess for now and hopefully things will continue to come into picture over the next six weeks.