Good Day, Newsies! Buckle up! It’s going to be a bumpy ride!
There’s so much news today, that I’m going to try to be a lot less wordy and just try to get as many stories and excerpts in here as I can without overwhelming everyone. The Lightning Roundup today is likely to be longer than usual and full of additional important news, which I won’t elaborate on too much in the interest of keeping this GNR to a manageable size.
Before I start, though, I’d like to say something that has been in the back of my mind a lot over the past few days as our national scene has grown more incredible by the week. As challenging as the times have been since November 2016, we are about to be tested even more sorely. There will be disinformation campaigns, bot attacks, denial, concealment and conspiracy against the United States and the rule of law. Expect it all and do not be distracted by agitators who seek to divide and weaken us. The suffering that is happening now will only be effectively stopped if we take down the power-brokers who are causing it. They are using people like pawns and counting on the rest of us to continue to run around trying to douse fires so that we cannot focus on them to put out the worst dumpster fire of all. We have to focus, like Robert Swan Mueller is focused, with ruthless precision on bringing down these bastards. It’s the only way we can effectively put a stop to all of the suffering.
I’m not advocating turning a blind eye to injustice — Yes! Continue to donate to ACLU, continue to speak out and advocate for people, continue with the work you are doing toward a more just society. I am simply saying that the gish gallop of vicious policies and actions is a tactic, and one we need to be aware of to fight back effectively. We must keep a steely eye on the main goal — a blue tsunami in the midterm elections — and do everything in our power to bring that about. I know we will be up to the challenge, if we stay focused.
All of the Good News Roundup writers have reminded us frequently that this is a marathon and that we will need to pace ourselves, persist and resist over many months (and possibly years) until the evil that has overtaken our government and our society has been completely rooted out. I agree wholeheartedly and I want to add this: Remember that this is an epic battle for control of the United
States (and indeed the world). It isn’t just about the current occupant of the White House — it has never been just about the Pretender — it is about a huge, wide-reaching and deeply entrenched system of abuse that threatens all people everywhere. It’s political, it’s cultural, it’s financial, it’s criminal...and it’s not going to be dismantled quickly or easily. But, it’s the beginning of the end for 45 and the Gun-fondling Old Perverts and we will soon be able to start rebuilding the country and striving once more toward a more just and perfect union.
GNR writers — and many IC and LE experts — have warned since last year that things will get “worse” before they get better. Without losing our ability to appreciate the good news when it occurs, we must remain cognizant of that fact and remain prepared to weather a storm. “Worse” doesn’t mean simply more sensational news (although it will include that); worse will really mean worse. These criminals are not playing around. As the investigations here and around the world start closing in on them, these awful people will not sit still and wait to be indicted or arrested. They will increase their criminal activity, and the dangers caused by their criminal actions will intensify. They will do anything to avoid exposure. We need to remember that and brace ourselves. More people may be hurt. It will get even scarier. That will mean the end is near for the bad guys, but also that the time is swiftly approaching when our resolve and our solidarity is really going to be tested. We must pace ourselves, persist and resist.
Mueller time is already playing out (even as we wait impatiently for public indictments) and our career justice professionals will deal this conservative cabal a severe blow. Combined with a blue wave in November, it’s possible to envision the tide turning as soon as early 2019. Stay focused. Do not let them freak you out. Together, with courage, we will save democracy.
⌛️ Pressure Is Mounting On The Conspirators ⌛️
Rosenstein Called His Bluff and The Buffoon Blinked
Whatever the hell went on Monday morning, it was not a resignation. An early report that Rod Rosenstein had “verbally resigned” was later walked back and it turns out that the DAG’s meeting at the WH today was a regularly scheduled briefing, not an ominous “summons” as also reported in the frantic early hours of the day. So, as things stand right now, Rod Rosenstein is still DAG and the Mueller probe is still safe. It looks like possibly Rosenstein was under great pressure to resign but he appears to be resolved not to, forcing the pResident to fire him if he dares. The pResident has no good options here and it seems like he thought he could bully Rosenstein. Things may have been very hot for RR behind the scenes and we may never know how heroic he may have been. But Rosenstein called the bluff and the buffon backed down. We will see what happens on Thursday, but rest assured that Robert Mueller has been prepared for this eventuality from the day he was appointed Special Counsel for the Russia matter, after the firing of James Comey. There is a “dead man’s switch” — count on it.
Rosenstein Still On The Job … For Now, Tierney Sneed, Talking Points Memo, September 24, 2018.
An Axios report that Rosenstein had offered a verbal resignation to White House chief-of-staff John Kelly kicked off a series of conflicting reports as to whether he had in fact tendered a resignation or if he was just expecting to be terminated.
As Rosenstein was reportedly summoned to the White House Monday,Bloomberg reported that the White House accepted his resignation, while NBC News’ Pete Williams reported that Rosenstein had told people he was not resigning and that the White House would need to fire him if Trump wanted him out instead.
There are other implications, however, for the White House’s ability to replace Rosenstein under the Federal Vacancies Reform Act that depend on whether he is fired or had resigned. (NiftyNote: Rosenstein must be fired for the Federal Vacancies Reform Act to kick in)
Mueller Plays Chess, Donald Plays Tiddly-Winks
Robert Mueller is playing a long game on the Russia investigation, and it's paying off, Mueller's careful strategy is increasing the likelihood his report will see the light, and Rod Rosenstein and Jeff Sessions will keep their jobs. Norman Eisen and Asha Rangappa, USA Today, September 24, 2018.
The protracted negotiation with Mueller, moreover, provides a specific issue for the president to focus on with his lawyers and a channel for him to vent his frustrations. Allowing the president to believe he is calling some shots and pushing back on the investigation gives Trump the illusion of control and makes him less likely to panic, lose his temper, and impulsively try to fire Mueller or his boss, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.
We may well have seen the beneficial results in the past few days. Despite a New York Times report that Rosenstein urged actions harmful to the president, a much feared Saturday Night Massacre II did not materialize. The claims — that Rosenstein offered to wear a wire around Trump and brought up the 25th Amendment — smack of spin by someone making mischief.
Still, Trump’s response has been surprisingly muted (so far), perhaps in part because Mueller and Rosenstein have avoided pushing the president into a corner (yet). The result: Despite constant rumors of Trump intending to fire one or both, they are still here.
The truth is that with the Nov. 6 elections so close, Trump’s hands are tied. He can’t fire either of them without risking a backlash and further helping Democratic candidates. No less a provocateur than Fox News’ Sean Hannity went on the air Friday after the Rosenstein allegations to beg the president, don't fire people now. Mueller’s cautious approach has helped bring us to this point.
The Crooked Cabal is Collapsing
Former Trump Official K.T. McFarland Revises Statement to Mueller, Shane Harris and Devlin Barrett, Washington Post, September 22, 2018.
K.T. McFarland, who briefly served as Flynn’s deputy, has now said that he may have been referring to sanctions when they spoke in late December 2016 after Flynn’s calls with Russia’s ambassador to the United States, these people said.
When FBI agents first visited her at her Long Island home in the summer of 2017, McFarland denied ever talking to Flynn about any discussion of sanctions between him and the ambassador, Sergey Kislyak, in December 2016, during the presidential transition.
For a time, investigators saw her answers as “inconsistent,” putting her in legal peril as the FBI tried to determine whether she had lied to them. ✂️
Flynn pleaded guilty in December to lying to the FBI about his calls with Kislyak and has been cooperating with Mueller. He is scheduled to be sentenced in mid-December.
Including Cohen
He’s Committed to Working with Mueller on Everything.”: Michael Cohen is Ready to Divulge “His Deep Concerns About Trump’s Suitability As President”, Emily Jane Fox, Vanity Fair, September 21, 2018.
On Thursday, ABC News reported that Cohen had spoken to Mueller’s team for hours about topics ranging from collusion to possible pardons. It added another dimension to the news I reported last week, namely that Cohen’s legal team had been engaged for a month with representatives from the special counsel’s office. Prosecutors from the Southern District sat in on some of the talks, and, separately, Cohen has been cooperating with officials from the tax and finance department of the New York state attorney general’s office, which is investigating the Trump Foundation. One person familiar with Cohen’s conversations explained that while Mueller’s focus is on Russia, their discussions have gone beyond potential collusion. “He’s committed to working with Mueller on everything,” this person said. “Everything. It’s been him saying, ‘these are the many things I’ve lived with for 10 years.’ He is no longer behind Donald Trump with a shovel. He wants to tell the truth about why Donald Trump is unsuitable to be president, about how he is not only dangerous for the country, but disloyal to this country as well.” (A spokesman for the special counsel’s office declined to comment. Both Cohen and Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Cohen’s attorney, Lanny Davis, tweeted on Thursday night, in part, “Good for @michaelcohen212 in providing critical information to the #muellerinvestigation without a cooperation agreement.”)
Flynn Too
Robert Mueller is finished with Michael Flynn, but he is keeping the details of his cooperation under wraps until after the midterm elections. Probably nobody in the White House is concerned. 😉
Judge sets Michael Flynn sentencing for December 18, CBS/AP News, September 20, 2018.
The move comes just days after prosecutors working for special counsel Robert Mueller said they were ready for Flynn's case to conclude. Flynn, a senior Trump campaign surrogate who gave a memorable speech at the 2016 Republican National Convention calling for the jailing of Democrat Hillary Clinton, has been a key cooperator in the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election and coordination with Trump associates.
But prosecutors have yet to reveal the extent of his cooperation, and according to U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan's order, the public won't see any details until after the midterm election.
Prosecutors won't be required to file a sentencing memorandum — a document which usually contains the government's view on the value of the cooperation — until Dec. 4.
And Don’t Forget Paul Manafort
What everyone’s forgetting about Paul Manafort, Diana Pilipenko, Washington Post, September 18, 2018.
If Kilimnik and Deripaska knew of Manafort’s crimes and crippling financial distress, so did the Kremlin. We can safely assume that Manafort was a compromised man when, on June 9, 2016, he met with a Russian government attorney to, in an ironic twist, receive illicit “dirt” on Hillary Clinton.
But Manafort was not the only person on the Trump campaign vulnerable to potential kompromat possessed by the Kremlin. Like his campaign chairman, Trump has been plagued by self-engineered financial distress. He has grown reliant on money from the former Soviet Union, including Russia. He worked closely with politically connected oligarchs and corrupt business partners. His financial empire is shrouded in the secrecy of hundreds of shell companies. And questions about his tax and bank documents abound. The parallels between Trump and Manafort are many, but they do not end there.
Manafort’s cooperation with Mueller could soon reveal how the Kremlin employed kompromat to attack U.S. democracy, because if Putin had compromising information on the campaign chairman of a major party candidate in a U.S. general election, he would probably put it to use. The same applies to the candidate himself.
And that’s not even touching the stories about Republican congressmen retiring in droves (sorry that’s a Fox link), Rs in legal trouble, self-inflicted trade war heating up, and of course the imploding Kreepy Kavanaugh SCOTUS nomination process.
The pretender and his gang of miscreants are under pressure is what I’m saying.
🌊 Election News 🌊
Following up on my story last week talking about the sleeper gubernatorial blue wave that’s approaching, here is Rachel Bitcofer’s latest predictions:
NBC News/WSJ poll: Democrats hold the advantage in November's elections, Mark Murray, NBC News, September 23, 2018.
In the survey, which was conducted Sept. 16-19, 52 percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 40 percent who want the Republicans in charge.
That 12-point lead for Democrats — their highest of the cycle in the poll — is an increase from August, when they held an 8-point edge, 50 percent to 42 percent, although the change is within the survey’s margin of error.
Among the voters who are most likely to vote — the first time the NBC/WSJ poll has measured these voters for the 2018 elections — the Democrats’ advantage falls to 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent.
In the larger pool of registered voters, McInturff points to warning signs for Republicans. They trail Democrats among moderates and independents by more than 30 points; they’re losing women ages 50 and older by nearly 20 points; and they’re behind among voters living in competitive congressional districts by 12 points, 53 percent to 41 percent.
Additionally, a combined 59 percent of voters say they’d like to see either “a great deal of change” or “quite a bit of change” in the direction Trump has been leading the country.
That includes 61 percent of independents and even a third of Republican respondents. 👀
The 10 most important Senate elections, briefly explained, Dylan Scott, Vox, September 21, 2018.
The candidates for the most competitive Senate elections in the 2018 midterms are now set, and while Democrats will need a near-perfect November to win back control of the chamber, a fresh assessment of the Senate battlefield reveals that they should have several opportunities to pick up the seats they need.
Democrats always had an uphill climb to retaking the Senate. Ten Democrats are up for reelection in states that Donald Trump won in 2016. Right now, Republicans are clinging to a 51-49 majority.
Democrats will still need to win most or all of West Virginia, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, Indiana, and Florida — and then win the Republican-held seats in Nevada, Arizona, and maybe even Tennessee or Texas — in order to win the 51 seats they need.
Still, going by the polling averages, 10 Senate races look legitimately competitive heading into the final two months of the 2018 campaign. Others could still prove to be closer than they appear — Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is an obvious candidate to see her race tighten, and Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), fresh off a mistrial on some corruption charges, has had some worryingly close polls — but we’re leaving them off for now.
And Cook’s has changed ratings on three senate races, two ratings more favorable to Democrats:
The Senate battleground has been pretty stable for much of the year. There have been very few rating changes. With just over six weeks to go, a majority of the most competitive races are within the margin of error, but a couple of races have closed over the past several weeks, expanding the playing field a bit going into the final stretch. On the Democratic side, Montana moves from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, and West Virginia moves from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. For Republicans, Texas moves to the Toss Up column.
Montana (D – Tester): Likely Dem to Lean Dem →
Texas (R – Cruz): Lean Rep. to Toss Up ←
West Virginia (D – Manchin): Toss Up to Lean Dem ←
And the ever popular fivethirtyeight generic ballot chart for control of the House:
♀ Women Are Heroes Who Will Save Democracy ♀
NPR is doing a series all this week on the role that women are playing in the midterms. This first article is packed with information. Go read the whole thing!
The Women's Wave: Backlash To Trump Persists, Reshaping Politics In 2018, Danielle Kurtzleben, NPR News, September 24, 2018.
"What you're seeing is just this harmonic convergence where women are running, women are volunteering in campaigns, women are making record numbers of contributions," said Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster. "And women are voting for Democrats, especially women Democrats."
A record number of women have run and won primaries for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and governorships this year, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, and a record number of women have also won nominations for state legislatures; the vast majority are Democrats.
Women turn out — and this year, they're very Democratic
It's nothing new for women to be politically active — women's turnout rate has outstripped men's in every presidential election since 1980, and in every midterm election since 1986. (In terms of raw numbers, women have outvoted men in every national election since at least 1964. These days, that gap is several million every election year.)
In that sense, every year is the "year of the woman."
But in 2018, polls show women have swung even more Democratic than usual, while men remain nearly evenly split, or leaning slightly Republican. According to an NPR analysis of recent likely-voter polls, this year's gender gap could be even bigger than those in 2014 and 2016, with women far more Democratic than in either of those years.
Profile in courage: Christine Blasey Ford: 'My fear will not hold me back from testifying', Kate Sullivan and Manu Raju, CNN News, September 24, 2018.
"I have one motivation in coming forward -- to tell the truth about what Mr. Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge did to me. My sincere desire is to be helpful to persons making the decision."
Ford also wrote that she has been the target of death threats and her family has had to relocate.
"While the nationwide outpouring of love has been heartwarming, I am spending considerable time managing death threats, avoiding people following me on freeways, and disconcerting media intrusion, including swarms of vans at my home and unauthorized persons entering my classroom and medical settings where I work," Ford said in the letter. ✂️
"While I am frightened, please know, my fear will not hold me back from testifying and you will be provided with answers to all of your questions," Ford said. "I ask for fair and respectful treatment."
Hundreds rally outside Supreme Court in solidarity with Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez, Elham Khatami, Think Progress, September 24, 2018.
The demonstration, which began at the Hart Senate Office Building, was part of a nationwide walk-out, hosted by dozens of organizations, including the Women’s March, Planned Parenthood Action, Know Your IX, and the Progressive Turnout Project. According to the Facebook event page, nearly 20,000 people across the country participated in the action.
“I’m here to demand that Congress represent us better,” said Washington, D.C. resident Bethany Zaiman. “I think there’s something to be said for using your body to show solidarity with other people, especially given the kind of undemocratic process that we’ve seen so far around the Brett Kavanaugh hearings and how many women are now coming forward to speak up about what he’s done to them in the past.”
Anti-Kavanaugh protests lead to arrests at the Capitol, Sunlen Surfaty, Ted Barrett, Elizabeth Landers and Clare Foran, CNN, September 24, 2018.
US Capitol Police charged 128 individuals Monday for "unlawfully demonstrating in Senate office buildings."
Among those, dozens of protesters sought to put pressure specifically on Collins. An aide from Collins' office came out into the hallway at one point to listen to the protesters.
The protesters implored the senator to take a stand sooner rather than later, saying: "Collins needs to make a decision now when it matters and stand up for us."
Another protester indicated that she was still holding out hope that Collins would be a "no" vote on Kavanaugh's nomination, saying, "We believe that Senator Collins can be a hero."
Capitol Hill police worked to make sure that people had room to move throughout the hallways, and police later arrested protesters occupying the hallway outside of Collins' office.
Women Walk Out Across The Country In Support Of Kavanaugh’s Accusers, Andy Campbell, Emma Gray and Laura Bassett, Huffington Post, September 24, 2018.
🔥 Meanwhile, From The Schadenfreude File, This Assh*le 🔥
Haha, it’s the “I’m a dentist,OK? I can read body language” guy, again! 😂 Looks like even Paul Gosar’s siblings cannot stomach his gross racist conservatism. Six of them made this ad endorsing his opponent, Democrat Dr. David Brill.
Arizona Congressman Paul Gosar’s Siblings Endorse Rival in New Campaign Ads, Joseph Flaherty, Phoenix New Times, September 21, 2018.
And This Assh*le
A casual observer could be forgiven for mistakenly thinking that “Ted” Cruz might secretly be a Beto fan. Last week, I mentioned how the Cruz campaign just can’t stop swooning over how cool Beto O’Rourke is. I kind of figured Cruz would pull back sharply on that, but you know Ted just does not possess a genuine, natural human instinct for what regular people do or do not find appealing. It’s really quite extraordinary. He seemed to really think sneering at Beto’s band days, his affection for Whataburger and his skateboarding would elicit jeering nods of approval from Texans.
Wrong!
So, this week, Ted went back to the drawing board, dug out the whitest, scratchiest piece of chalk, and tried to sound a really piercing racist whistle. Trouble is, the new ad was greeted with confusion by his dogged supporters and cheers by enthusiastic O’Rourke supporters — and frankly a lot of independents and disaffected Republicans. Some political observers remarked that the point of the ad was to frighten racist whites by the sight of a large group of black people cheering for Beto, as he speaks about Botham Jean’s murder in his own home at the hands of a police officer (and it is true that this visual will probably have the desired effect on those who already have irrational racist fears), but the truth is that those voters were always going to vote for Cruz anyway and the ad will not likely win over any new voters because a great many people think what Beto said that day was right on.
Late-breaking bonus schadenfreude! Cruz chased out of Washington DC restaurant by people protesting Kavanaugh nomination:
⚡️ Lightning Roundup ⚡️
⚡️ Thanks for the laugh, Wonkette!: Rod Rosenstein Not YOU'RE FIRED Over That Shitty New York Times Story Yet ... OR IS HE? Evan Hurst, Wonkette, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ Also: Why Trump Couldn’t Really Stop the Mueller Investigation—Even if He Fired Rosenstein, Martin London, Time, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ Took them long enough: Dallas police fire officer charged with fatally shooting man in his apartment, Elliot C. McLaughlin, Jay Croft and Keith Allen, CNN, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ A small step toward justice: 18 men framed by 'corrupt' Chicago police sergeant have convictions overturned, Meghan Keneally, ABC News, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ ORLY?: Report: Instagram Founders Exit Facebook as Zuckerberg Involvement Grows, Sarah Frier, Bloomberg News, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ Goodie’s future congressman, hopefully! A progressive is co-opting Trump’s messaging to unseat Chris Collins, Ryan Koronowski, Think Progress, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ No wonder, indeed: No Wonder the GOP Doesn’t Want Mark Judge to Testify, Adam Rawnsley, The Daily Beast, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ 🔥 Sally 🔥: Kavanaugh isn’t entitled to a Supreme Court seat, just as men aren’t entitled to sex, Sally Kohn, Washington Post, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ He says we will hear more by Wednesday. Hope this is legit: Avenatti: Kavanaugh accuser client may pursue criminal case, Rachel Maddow Show, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ Completely appropriate for kringeworthy Kav: Kavanaugh mocked after citing virginity, strict social calendar in latest defense, Karma Allen, ABC, September 25, 2018.
⚡️ Hope he’s not all bark/no bite: Michael Avenatti Warns Trump, Kavanaugh: ‘Be Very, Very Careful’ About What You Do Next, David Barden, Huffington Post, September 25, 2018.
⚡️ Yep: #WhyIDidntReport and #MeToo Have Higher Aims Than Converting Skeptics, Christina Cauterucci, Slate, September 23, 2018.
⚡️ Please take their advice 🍊!: Trump supporters want Kavanaugh accuser to testify. They’re sure he will be cleared. Anita Kumar, McClatchy News, September 23, 2018.
⚡️ No way!: Republicans Knew More Kavanaugh Claims Were Coming, Democratic Aides Say, Jennifer Bendery, Huffington Post, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ Yogi is safe again: Federal Judge Restores Endangered Species Protection To Yellowstone-Area Grizzlies, Nick Visser, Huffington Post, September 25, 2018.
⚡️ Gee, I wonder WH🍊?: Nikki Haley is a GOP rising star. But some don’t like her stealing Trump’s spotlight, Anita Kumar, McClatchy News, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ Anything is possible!: How A Rising Star Of White Nationalism Broke Free From The Movement, Terry Gross, NPR, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ Very lucky: 19-Year-Old Survives 49 Days At Sea After Floating Hut Drifts To Guam, Bill Chappelle, NPR News, September 24, 2018.
⚡️ Essential community effort that makes a real difference: Amid record Numbers of Homeless Kids, NYC Is Relocating Families Closer to Schools, Lindsay Christ, Spectrum News NY, September 21, 2018.
🎶 Musical Break with Randy Rainbow! 🎶
💪 Action Roundup 💪
Today is US Voter Registration Day. It’s a great reminder to check your voter registration and to help other people get registered or make sure that their registration is in order. Here’s a couple of helpful sites:
League of Women Voters Excellent resource for voting registration, finding your polling place, ballot info, etc.
Rock the Vote Geared toward younger voters.
Register to Vote and Confirm or Change Registration This is the U.S. government site.
Thanks to Oldhippiedude
Consider giving some support to Spread the Vote, which is working in several states to assist would-be voters without required ID’s. They take care of everything from obtaining necessary documents to providing transportation to necessary agencies, and they pay for everything.
And as always:
Please don’t forget the families who were forcibly separated by this evil so-called *administration*. Check out oldhippiedude’s action list here.
The ActBlue link is an easy way to contribute to 14 organizations, including the ACLU, who are working to help these families.
Also:
Donate to ActBlue
Donate to Swing Left
Send postcards to voters in other districts
Sign up to go door to door in your district
Sign up to drive people to the polls
Find your local Democratic Party and volunteer!
Plus! Check out Yosef 52's diaries, posted daily, chockerblock full of ideas and information.
And FreewayBlogger
😊 Roundup Winddown 😊
In honor of Mrmuni12 (who I hope is having a much better day today!) and to any other Gnusies who are feeling under the weather today: May this musical gift bring wellness and comfort to you.
If this makes your day better, let’s joyfully blame it on Mozart! 😄 🎶
I may not be as regular in responding as I ‘d like to be tomorrow. I have an appointment. Please put your own good news in the comments!
Happy Tuesday, All. I am so glad there are so many of us!