From a glance at the results, there was a blue wave in California last November. The Dem/Rep statewide races went for Democrats by 24-31 points, 7 U.S. House districts held by Republicans flipped giving Democrats 46 of 53 seats or 87%, their highest percentage since the 1880s, and Democrats gained enough seats for 70%+ majorities in the state legislature. Maps of the statewide election results by county are at the end of the diary.
Federal Races
The U.S. Senate race was, for the second time in a row, an all-Dem race. Incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein won reelection to a 5th full term by 9 points over fellow Democrat Kevin de León, former State Senate President Pro Tempore. Even though the race was all-D, the map somewhat resembles the traditional D vs. R voting patterns of the early/mid 2000s, give or take a few counties.
Now onto the U.S. House races. A decade ago if somebody told me that near the end of the next decade Republican representatives would only number in the single digits, I would not have believed it. At that time I thought a large diverse state with a polarized electorate that gave Democrats 55-60% of the vote would have a significant share of the minority party in its House delegation, especially with Top 2 essentially eliminating primaries so more moderate Republicans could run. I saw how wrong I was after the 2012/14 elections when Democrats picked up 5 seats, defeating Republicans that had a history of winning light red/purple areas such as Mary Bono, Tony Strickland, and Abel Maldonado (though the latter had become unpopular while LG). After 2016, when I saw that Clinton won 46 districts in California I thought most of the Republican incumbents would hold on in those districts in 2018. Trump would not be on the ticket and midterms naturally have a drop-off in turnout, especially among Democrats. It seems that the partisanship of many of these districts caught up with the incumbents.
CA-10: Clinton won this district by only 3, and Jeff Denham has long been a white whale for Democrats going back to his narrow win to the State Senate in 2002 (to a district that Gray Davis won slightly more than his statewide margin), including a failed attempt to recall him in 2008. His margins had been shrinking since he ran in the 10th district beginning in 2012 (with a bump in 2014 likely due to lower Dem turnout) so it was probably a matter of time before Denham lost.
CA-21: David Valadao had also won in Democratic areas, going back to 2010 though this part of the San Joaquin Valley is more conservative. This area was represented in the Assembly for 3 terms by conservative Democrat Nicole Parra, who won by close margins 3 times. After being termed out of the Assembly in 2008, Parra endorsed Republican Danny Gilmore, who won over Fran Florez, the mother of Parra's rival Dean. (Fran had defeated Parra's father Pete in the primary.) Gilmore retired after one term and endorsed Valadao for the district.
Also unlike Denham, Valadao's wins in 2012, 2014, and 2016 were stable. I thought this would be the least likely Clinton-Republican district in California to flip, especially against TJ Cox who had run and lost before, albeit in a more Republican district (CA-19 in 2006). Judging from the June numbers, I thought this district flipping would have been unlikely (though Clinton won by 15) due to the low-turnout nature of midterms and Valadao's consistency in his wins. However, the total number of votes in November more than doubled from June's numbers. Cox's vote count almost tripled while Valadao's less than doubled, enabling Cox to win.
CA-25: I thought if any of the Clinton-Republican districts in California flipped, this would be the likeliest due to the rapidly changing demographics in the Antelope Valley-centric district that Clinton won by 7.
CA-39: This district, containing Richard Nixon’s home, used to be very Republican. Royce won here by comfortable margins and likely would have won had he stayed. After the first round in June, I began to think that this district wouldn't be likely to flip, but in classic 2000s/2010s California fashion, the late votes put Cisneros over the top.
CA-45: Even though this district contains Democratic-trending Irvine, it also seemed like one of the less likely Democratic districts to flip, with a PVI of R+3 (Clinton won by 5), never having elected a Democratic representative before 2018, and John Campbell/Mimi Walters' consistent wins. Of course Walters got too cocky with the possibility of becoming NRCC chair, and this probably ended up costing her the race.
CA-48: At R+4, only Clinton +2, and with 15 election wins for Dana Rohrabacher, this district should have been unlikely to flip, but Rohrabacher shooting himself in the foot with being openly pro-Russia/Putin and even turning in a weak June performance with only 30% moved the district to one of the likelier Dem pickups.
CA-49: This R+1, Clinton +7 district would have been competitive with or without Issa. Diane Harkey, having won Assembly and Board of Equalization races here, was probably the strongest Republican candidate. Democrats dodged a bullet with Mike Levin instead of Qualcomm heiress Sara Jacobs, after her "crusty Marine" gaffe referring to Rocky Chavez and Doug Applegate (who almost beat Issa last time). This race had the biggest Democratic win of the 7 competitive districts, with Levin winning by 13.
CA-50: Obviously not a Democratic win, but it was much closer than it should have been, similar to John Doolittle's close call in 2006 after his legal troubles related to Jack Abramoff came to light, though Doolittle was never indicted. Like CA-04, if the Democrat won a dark red district in California it would very likely be a one-term rental since Democrats in California don't usually win districts redder than R+3. (CA-48 is R+4, but Rohrabacher had baggage and this will probably be a Republican target in 2020.)
State Offices
As expected, the Dem vs. Rep races were won big by the Democrats. The governor's race, being higher profile than the other statewide races, actually had the best Republican performance (though that is not saying much). John Cox won Butte, Fresno, Riverside, and Stanislaus Counties over Gavin Newsom, while none of the other Republicans in the D vs. R races won those counties except Butte in the Attorney General race.
The race for lieutenant governor was an all-D affair, with former Ambassador to Hungary Eleni Kounalakis winning by 13 over former State Senator Ed Hernandez to become the first woman elected to the office. (Mona Pasquil served as acting LG between John Garamendi and Abel Maldonado in 2010.) Even though the win was not that big Kounalakis won most of the counties, doing best in most of the coast as well as around Lake Tahoe.
Former Republican Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner ran for his old job, this time under the "No Party Preference" label against Democratic state legislator Ricardo Lara. This race also resulted in a map similar to the D-R maps of the early 2000s, even though the percent margin was just under 6 points.
The officially nonpartisan race for Superintendent of Public Instruction featured two Democrats, Assemblyman Tony Thurmond and charter school advocate Marshall Tuck, who unsuccessfully ran for the office in 2014. That race was close-ish, with incumbent Tom Torlakson winning by 4. This race was even closer, with Thurmond behind the day after Election Day but coming back to win by 1 point, or less than 200,000 votes, after all the votes were tallied. This map also resembles Democratic wins in the early/mid-2000s, albeit weak ones.
State Senate
Democrats in the State Senate went into the November elections having lost their supermajority after the successful recall of Josh Newman in June and ended up gaining 3 seats (all of which Clinton handily won), for 29 seats or 72.5% of the chamber. Two of those districts overlap highly contested congressional districts; the 12th overlaps CA-10 and the 14th overlaps CA-21. Both these districts also included some Democratic areas, so Anna Caballero in the 12th and Melissa Hurtado in the 14th won by more comfortable margins than Josh Harder and TJ Cox.
The 34th district in Orange County mostly overlaps the non-competitive CA-46 held by Lou Correa, who held this Senate seat from 2006 to 2014, but was also highly competitive due to Republican Janet Nguyen winning in 2014 after Correa was termed out. (She also won a seat vacated by Correa in 2007, in the Board of Supervisors.) With Tom Umberg as the Democrat vying for this seat, I didn't think this would flip.
There were close calls in the 28th (Riverside County without Riverside city and some surrounding cities), 36th (mostly overlapping CA-49), and 38th (mostly overlapping CA-50) districts, though Trump won the 28th and 38th, and the 36th went for Clinton by less than 3 points. Of course these seats won't be up again until 2022 after new lines are drawn, but 3 Clinton-Republican districts are up in 2020, the 21st (overlaps CA-25 and Clinton won by 3), 29th (overlaps CA-39 and Clinton won by 13), and the 37th (overlaps CA-45 and Clinton won by 6).
State Assembly
The Assembly already had a Democratic supermajority of 55-25 going into November, and Democrats built on that supermajority, gaining 5 seats for a 75% majority. The 16th district, held by Catharine Baker (first elected in 2014), the only Republican legislator in the Bay Area, was expectedly a high priority for Democrats and was called for Rebecca Bauer-Kahan 10 days after Election Day.
Three of the other 4 seats Democrats picked up overlap competitive congressional districts, while the other overlaps a Democratic-held congressional district. These include:
- AD-38: partially overlaps CA-25 and Clinton won by 5
- AD-40: overlaps CA-31 and Clinton won by 14
- AD-74: overlaps CA-45 and 48 and Clinton won by 7
- AD-76: overlaps CA-49 and Clinton won by 13 (this changed to Dem by default after the June election when two Democrats advanced, though given the voting patterns AD-76 might have turned Democratic anyway even with a Republican running)
Even after these wins, Republicans still hold 6 districts won by Clinton. These include:
- AD-35: partially overlaps CA-24 and Clinton won by 6, though this wasn't particularly close
- AD-36: partially overlaps CA-25 and Clinton won by 6
- AD-55: overlaps CA-39 and wasn't that close with Phillip Chen winning by almost 10 though Clinton in 2016 won by 5
- AD-68: overlaps CA-45 and Clinton won by 5
- AD-72: overlaps CA-48 and Clinton won by 8
- AD-77: overlaps CA-50/52 and Clinton won by 15