A word about KS-2 (and another potential Kansas House upset)

I'm from Topeka originally, so when kos posted that he thinks this is a prime surprise upset possibility, I was a little curious.  Kos has in the past overstated Kansas as fertile ground for Democrats (note to kos: a willingness to elect a Democratic governor does not mean the state Dem party is starting to make gains...Kansas remains very Republican, and probably will be at least for a generation to come).  

And, Topeka (biggest city in District 2) in particular has a pretty shitty Democratic presence: at the local level the Democratic office-runner with the highest name recognition year after year is Fred Phelps (of www.godhatesfags.com fame).  Which isn't to say that the Republican party there is much better.  If anybody wants a laugh, read up on the Topeka City council two years or so ago.  It's a district with a long history of clusterfuckdom.  But, despite the games of grab-ass that go on there every cycle, it's still about 60% Republican, with another 15% or so that leans-Republican (and in Kansas, leans Republican means they might vote for Zell Miller were he to run for something, the other 60% are far too loyal to even consider that).

Anyway, I still have some contacts in Kansas politics (on both sides), and as kos's note on KS-2 was the first I'd heard of that race being anything but a lock for Ryun, I dropped a few of them a line about it.  The following is our consensus.  

Boyda is a very unimpressive candidate, first of all.  In a 60% Republican district, it takes something special for a Democrat to break through, and Boyda is anything but special.  Also, in a very cheap district, she's hurting for money, and with no strong Democrats running in bigger races, and with Bush coattails, the chances of her winning are slightly better than a snowball's chance of hell.  

That said, Ryun is, and always has been, a terrible campaigner.  Hell, a terrible politician.  I personally remember when he first ran for office, and he traded on nothing but his athletic past ("Run with Ryun!") and very slight name recognition.  Any battle of ideas, charisma, or intelligence, Ryun will lose.  Against a strong, well-funded challenger, Ryun might be very vulnerable.  The only reason he's hung on so long is he's a GOP incumbent in a 60% GOP district.  That he goes freakishly negative against his opponents isn't because he's scared of them, he just has nothing much better to offer.  But remember, this is a state where Pat Robertson and Sam Brownback remain very popular figures, so the chances of any Republican candidate catching blowback for being a right-wing nutjob who trades on hyperbolic attacks is very, very low.  In Kansas, races are quite often won by such attacks (Sebelius almost lost her reelection bid by daring to use 9-11 in a non-killing-Arabs context).    

That said, Ryun losing wouldn't be the most surprising thing ever.  As I said, he's a terrible campaigner, so he tends to be vulnerable (at least in theory) everytime he's up against a challenger with a pulse.  But, don't take comparing his opponent to Osama Bin Laden as a sign of weakness.  It's business as usual for the Kansas Republican party.    

There's another race in Kansas though that might in fact be more fertile ground for an upset.  The Kansas City incumbent, Dennis Moore, has gone MONSTER negative in the last week against Jesus-freak Republican challenger Kris Kobach. A couple of friends of mine from inside the Moore campaign are not optimistic about the polls. I sort of expect this seat to be a Republican pickup.  If you're looking for upsets, while Ryun's seat might be say a 5-1 shot, this one is probably a 3-1 shot, for the Republican challenger.  Any upset House races this year out of Kansas will probably be this one.  Which is sort of a shame, as Kris Kobach isn't the sort of guy you want in the house (from any state), but Moore is vulnerable and knows it, and Kobach is well-backed by the KS GOP fundie machine.

So, that's the word from Kansas.