Next Tuesday, I'll be working my local polling station all day. Then I'll come home, fix dinner for my two young girls. Bathe them, read books, put them to bed. It'll be about 7:15 EST, and I'll sit down to an evening of TV.
I don't know the networks' strategies for calling the election in Eastern states (but I'll be grateful for information from any of you who do know). So what follows involves some guesswork.
Polls close at 6 PM (all times Eastern) in Indiana and Kentucky. 7 PM in New Hampshire, Vermont, South Carolina, and Georgia. 7:30 in West Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina. So by the time I turn on the TV, Dan, Tom, Peter, and their buds will at least be showing us the returns. Great trends in NH, WV, and OH. Surprising numbers in SC and NC (including the senatorial races). Lots of talk of the turnout, which has been huge, and of the complications and problems in various places. Some reports will piss me off, but most of what they say will have me beaming.
My guess is that, by 8 PM, when polls close in a slew of states, the networks will begin calling some races. By 9 PM, when polls will be closed throughout the East, the networks will be showing a sea of solid blue throughout the Northeast, from Maine to DC, including PA, which Kerry will be leading by 5% or better. Kerry at 117.
SC, GA, AL, KY, and MS will be red, but WV, VA, and NC will be surprisingly close, Tom!. Florida will be blue. Soon, so will Ohio (again by 5+%), Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Arkansas. Kerry 228, Bush 57. Missouri will turn blue. West Virginia, too. North Carolina will turn red. Kerry 244, Bush 72.
South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Wyoming will turn their expected red. Bush's red country will seem greater, but his count will be only 130. New Mexico will turn blue. Kerry 249. Arizona and Colorado will remain too close to call. Talking heads will be pointing out the inevitable: Bush had to win Florida and Ohio, or if not Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa. It hasn't happened, and Kerry's margins are holding at numbers that would seem to defy even Rethuglican lawsuits.
10 PM, and polls are closed everywhere but the five Pacific states. North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, and Utah turn red. Again, a growing sea of impotent red, and all I got was this lousy 145 EV. Iowa will turn blue. 256. Then Louisiana. 265. Then Virginia, the Mother of Presidents, will turn blue. 278! Kerry's face will fill the screen as the race is called for him. The networks will cut to Kerry campaign headquarters, which is a blur of exultation. Tom, Dan, and Peter will marvel that Virginia, which hasn't gone for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, has gone for John Kerry. They'll start asking when Bush intends to give his concession speech. They'll ask Kerry reps if the Bush campaign has called. We'll all be waiting for the most misguided, self-deluded, arrogant ignoramus of all time to do the right thing.
It's 10:30. Tennessee, Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona remain white, each showing extremely tight races as the precincts report in.
11 PM. Polls closed everywhere but Alaska. The West Coast and Hawaii turn blue. Kerry 355, Bush 145. With more than 75% of precincts counted in Florida and Ohio, Kerry leads each by just about 5%. In Florida, Dan points out, 5% represents a lead of almost 400,000 votes (turnout has been very heavy).
Rumors begin bouncing around that Bush has called Kerry to concede the election. No, he hasn't. Has he? The Kerry campaign keeps repeating that Kerry is ready to accept the call.
Colorado and Tennessee turn blue. Kerry 375.
Finally, word comes out that Bush has conceded the election. He will speak around 11:30.
Arizona and Nevada remain too close to call.
11:30 PM. All screens turn to Bush's stage, which is decked out ridiculously for victory in some stupid-ass place like a street in Austin. Supporters put brave faces on exhaustion. Bush takes the stage to cheers. It is not reality-based cheering. He looks small, tired, old. His family is at his side. He congratulates Kerry, then offers perhaps the most ungracious, self-absorbed concession speech ever given by an incumbent president.
Midnight. Kerry takes the stage amid deafening cheers. It's not simply the audience before him. It's you, me, a majority of voting Americans. It's the whole world. He is officially our next President.
Wednesday morning, 3 AM. Alaska has turned red. Arizona joins it. Nevada turns blue.
Final score: Kerry 380, Bush 158. 52% to 46%. Kerry has received 62,000,000 votes, by far the most ever.
