Alaska- This is a red state and has no business having a democratic senator. Also in Alaska, due to the predominance of the republican party there is a large Green party on the other side. However, due to the strength of our candidate and the weakness of the father-appointed incumbent (Tony Knowles (D) and Lisa Murkowski respectively), this will be a pickup for the democrats. We will have to protect it though in 2010. (D +1)
Arizona- McCain will have no problem here and the race that was supposed to be close, AZ-01, will not. Unfortunately Rick Renzi will win this one, probably with a margin of 10% or so
Arkansas- Blanche Lincoln will keep this senate seat blue and look for her to move up in the world soon.
California- No changes here either. Boxer will hold her seat, CA-20 will stay in the democrat's hands. This state has been gerrymandered to death
Colorado- Ken Salazar and his brother John will score two pickups in this swing state. Peter Coors creeps people out, Walcher does not care about his potential constituents and the family name is strong in the state. However, in the two other close house races here, the republican incumbents will win. (D+2, D+1)
Connecticut- Dems will win one seat here. That seat will be in CT-2, where Jim Sullivan will beat Rob Simmons. It isn't because he is disliked in his district, but the district is too blue to have a republican and Sullivan has run a good campaign. In CT-4, another blue district, Chris Shays has stayed moderate enough to hang on and win. Maybe next time.
(D+2, D+2)
Florida- This one will be very close. But I believe Betty Castor will keep it in the hands of the democrats. She will have a strong enough backing in the Jewish and African-American communities to overcome Martinez's Cuban-American core. It will be decided by a few thousand votes, but Castor should come out on top.
Georgia- The Dems lose this senate seat that we actually haven't had in a while. We pick up one house seat in GA-12, a seat made for a democrat, and protect our seat in GA-3
(D+1, D+3)
Illinois- We get back the senate seat by overwhelmingly sending Barack Obama to the Senate. We also defeat an ancient incumbent in Phillip Crane, sending Melissa Bean to congress. Two other races will be close here, but only one pickup.
(D+2, D+4)
Indiana- Unfortunately, there will be one Bush administration lackey with a job on November 3. That is Mitch Daniels, who will pick up this gubernatorial race for the Republicans. All incumbents win here as well.
Iowa and Kansas - All incumbents survive (Dennis Moore lives to fight another day)
Kentucky - Ah, the craziest senate race of the season. I am going out on a limb and saying that we pick up a senate seat here. The race is so tight and the voters are worried about Bunning's health, which means that the opponent has the edge. We hold onto the seat in KY 04, but fail to pickup Anne Northup's district.
(D+3, D+4)
Louisiana- I won't even try and pick winners here. Vitter and John go to a runoff in December, we lose a chance in LA-3 when two republicans go to a runoff, and have a good candidate in Willie Mount heading into a runoff in LA-7
(????????)
Minnesota- Incumbents survive
Missouri- Republicans pick up another Governor's mansion by electing Matthew Blunt. We will win this one in four years.
Montana- We get one governors race back in the red state of Montana. (Which means a net gain so far of +1R for governors)
Nebraska- Another out on a limb pick is NE-1 where I foresee a Democratic pickup. The other races aren't close
(D+3, D+5)
Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico- All incumbents survive
New Hampshire - We make the net gain 0 in governor's races by picking this one up. Lynch squeaks by with a Kerry victory in the state)
New York - Pick up one, NY-27. Brian Higgins will make a good congressman. Unfortunately, a truly evil man will be elected in NY-29 and our very own Samara Barend will have to age a little before she can make it into congress (one day, I assure all of you)
(D+2, D+6)
North Carolina - Republicans take a senate seat, we take a house seat. Erskine Bowles worked for Bill Clinton and thus will not win (not a criticism of the Big Dog, but it is NC) However, Patsy Keever throws out the scandal-plagued incumbent.
(D+2, D+7)
Ohio, Oregon - Incumbents survive
Oklahoma- We get back a senate seat here. Oklahomans have the good sense to only vote for one evil fanatic (the losing presidential candidate) but cannot vote for someone who believes African-Americans have a genetic predisposition to die early.
(D+3, D+7)
Pennsylvania- Only one change here. Even after a bizarre debate performance, the abortion issue is too much and Ginny Schrader will pick this seat up.
(D+3, D+8)
South Carolina- Without going into detail, because Jim DeMint disgusts me, South Carolina elects him and we lose this senate seat.
(D+2, D+8)
South Dakota - All incumbents survive. Sorry to all the Daschle haters out there, we'll just have to remove him as majority leader without making him lose his job.
Texas (bleh) - My adopted home state gives Republicans their only house pickups this year. TX-1 stays blue barely, TX-2 changes to red, TX-17 is a blow out for our guy, TX-19 is another loss, TX-25 stays blue and TX-32, the most watched race, Martin Frost ekes out a win. This, altogether, is a net loss of 2 seats for the democrats (take that Tom DeLay)
(D+2, D+6)
Utah, Wisconsin - Incumbents survive
Virginia - Someone please help me. VA-2 is the one race I cannot call because I don't have enough information
Washington- One pickup out of two ain't half bad. Dave Ross takes WA-08 because it is too moderate to elect the sheriff. WA-05 does not have the same sense of morality.
(D+2, D+7)
West Virginia - A governor hold here for us. West Virginia stays red with the presidency, but not with their governor.
Total
-----Senate - 50D, 49R, 1 Independent (D+2)
------House - 222R, 212 D, 1 Independent (D+7)
-----Governor - 28R, 22 D (+-)
