One Poor Soul's EV Projection

I realize that there was a big thread on this, what, a couple of days ago; however, I just needed more time for my half-baked but fully agonized election predictions.  If I'm spot-on, I get glory-- if the election tips the other way, I'll have this entry as a living, breathing reminder of why I should move to Spain.

That said, here it goes:

Kerry 306 EV
Bush 232 EV

Judging from early voting, Kerry's killing Bush in FL and IA.  Voter turnout is expected to surpass 115M, and the mo' votes, the mo' better for Dems.  The GOTV issue is key (no news there), but if people are willing to wait hours at a time days and weeks before the election, then watch out.  Also, the weather forecasts are relatively mild, so look for 60%, give or take.

State by state, I have few surprises, but I was shocked at how, at least at MyDD, nobody else had my tally.   All states go as in 2000, except:

NH, OH, and FL go for Kerry.  GOP voter suppression may make OH a late call, but I have a feeling that FL will go by 4-5% for Kerry.

NM will go for Bush.  I know that there have been diaries about NM staying blue, but I have a gut feeling.  The Southwest is changing (NV, AZ, NM and CO will all be battlegrounds in 2008), but extra attention lavished on New Mexicans by Bush will push this into the red column.

I could bore you with state-by-state "squeaker" stuff, but there's little that hasn't been said by others.

Happy voting to all.