DFA should morph in to this.

I think the plan outlined below is a good model. I'm thinking this sort of thing could be done on a national level. And I think this is what the Dean campaign should morph into.  Whaddya think?

The organizer of the Dean campaign in my district in Seattle put together this Get Out The Vote (GOTV) plan for our district as a way to harness the energy and enthusiasm of the Dean campaign after we lost the Washington Caucuses. (We won our district, though!).

The plan below seems like it could be a great blueprint for GOTV efforts nationally.  There are strong Democratic districts in key battleground states where this sort of effort could really swing the election (as long as the voting machines aren't rigged).  What do people think about this plan?  Is this the kind of effort that could be financed through blog related fundraising? Has this wheel already been invented?  I'd be interested in feedback.

37th District Voter Registration/Turnout Project
for the November 2004 Election
(37th2004)

The Challenge

In 2004 Democrats and liberals will see the perfect storm of critical races in Washington State.  Tight races are foreseen for President, Governor, US Senate, and Attorney General.

We must do a better job of registering likely Democrat voters, and turning them out to vote.

One of the most accessible opportunities for increasing Democratic votes lies in the 37th District -- Central and South Seattle, Skyway, and Renton.  The 37th District went for Dean (41%) in the caucus and with Kerry second (31%) and Kucinich third (15%).  The 37th is overwhelmingly Democratic and very liberal.

The Numbers

In 2000, Gore took Washington 50% to 44%.  Gore received  1,247,600 votes to 1,108,800 for Bush,  and 103,000 for Ralph Nader.

In the 37th District, the good news was that Gore received 80% of the vote to 13% for Bush and 6% for Nader.  The bad news is that Gore only received 34,748 votes in the 37th District.  

By contrast, in the 36th District in northeast Seattle, Gore received 71% of the vote for a total of 45,00 votes.  Both districts had the same approximate 120,000 residents, but the 36th District had 81,000 registered to 60,600 in the 37th District.  Voters in the 36th District turned out at a 78.6% pace, while only 71.7% of the 37th District registered voters voted.

In Seattle, out of six very liberal districts the 37th District produced the highest percentage votes for Gore, but the lowest percentage turnout (71.7%) and the lowest number of registered voters (60,626).

Bottom Line:  If the 37th District had registered and turned out voters at the same rate as the 36th District, Gore would have picked up an additional 16,000 votes.  If there is no Nader in the race, this could increase to an additional 20,000 votes.   This could be crucial in 2004, and could provide the winning margin in one of the four major statewide races for President, Governor, US Senate, or Attorney General.  

Diversity

Over the past decade the 37th District has been the only non-Caucasion (majority) legislative district in Washington State.  The 37th is roughly one third white, one third Asian, and one third African American.

The Goal

The goal of this effort is to significantly increase voter registration and voter turnout in the 37th District through a labor intensive, volunteer, door-to-door, grassroots campaign.  

Each of the 166 precincts will be organized by a 2-5 member team of volunteers.  A total of roughly 400 - 500 volunteers will be needed.,  Volunteers will be recruited from political campaigns, community groups, churches, peace organizations, labor unions, and word-of-mouth.  Each team will begin with a list of all household addresses  in the precinct, including but not limited to all registered voters.  They will go door-to-door to each household where the residents are not registered.  They will seek to register new voters to vote by absentee ballot.  

The Howard Dean campaign organized the most labor intensive grassroots campaign seen in the 37th District in 20 years.  Of the 166 precincts, about 130 were canvassed by a precinct captain.  Many of these Dean volunteers have already agreed to work on a voter registration/voter turnout campaign.  

The goal will be to register an additional 20,000 voters, and increase turnout by 10%.  Given that the base liberal vote in the 37th District (Gore + Nader) is 86%, reaching our goal would result in an additional 21,600 votes for a Democratic presidential candidate.  

Timeline, Staffing, and Budget

The campaign would be broken into two obvious phases:  Voter Registration and Voter Turnout.  The Voter Registration would occur in March, April, and May.  The goal would be to conclude before June, since summers are difficult months to attract volunteers or to find people at home.  The Voter Turnout would be conducted in September and October.

 
Staffing needs would be minimal.  Basically a half time database manager would be required in March - May, and September - October.  If this position could be contributed by an existing voter registration campaign or by the Democratic Party, this expense could be eliminated.

Recruitment and management of volunteers would be directed by (county official), and a Campaign Steering Committee.  They would supervise a group of ten Regional Organizers, each supervising about sixteen Precinct Teams.

So that's the plan so far.  Thoughts?