What can we expect from Bush in the next few weeks

After dedicating almost all of his resources to date to frame Kerry as weak on defense and an old fashioned liberal, Bush has failed.  Kerry has succeeded in framing his own image as a real alternative to Bush as Commander in Chief, a person who cares about the middle class, and a leader.  Bush has to defensively re-frame himself.  His old arguments are not effective against the newly framed Kerry.

Security

On security Bush will have to both continue to attack Kerry's credibility while also diluting the importance and focus on security as an issue.  The attacks on Kerry will be indirect and will come from sources not clearly connected to the campaign.  Look for an injection of cash for instance into the Swift Boat crew.  More attempts to cloud the waters around Kerry's war experience can be expected from other sources.  At the same time Bush will push the "We've turned the Corner" theme to reduce the impact of his weakened polling on security.  Bush will continue his recent mantra of "We're safer now.  We're safer now."  He'll be thwarted by scared and cowed government agencies that will continue to send mixed signals by sending out sporadic terrorist warnings in order to provide political cover in case something really happens.

The "we're safer now" mantra is a dangerous card as he leaves himself wide open to the repercussions of a terrorist attack.  If ANYTHING happens in the US between now and November Bush will be left looking very foolish.  If god forbid, a domestic terrorist attack happens the Democrats CAN NOT hold fire in the name of "national unity in times of trouble" (a phrase the Republicans will yell from the highest places in order to shut us up).  The Democrats MUST attack with full vigor as that's when Bush will be most vulnerable.

Economy

Kerry ran to the right of Bush on security.  Bush will run to the left of Kerry on the Economy.  Expect Bush to roll out a whole pile of proposals that, at first blush, seem to take the initiative from Kerry.  Jobs training, a focus on the blue collar worker, families, health care, social security.  The desperation of the Bush campaign is evident in the way that it will offer a cornucopia of ammunition to the Democrats.  

First, every proposal he makes will have clear counter examples from Bush's first term demonstrating Bush's actions which can be compared to his new words.  The "flip-flop" moniker is stale and worn out.  It more or less did its job for Bush and died.  For the Democrats to try to apply it to Bush will look weak. Instead, the credibility button should be pushed, contrasting each Bush proposal with what Kerry will do.  i.e attack without giving up the positive.  Even Bush supporters poll as thinking Bush lied on Iraq.  Build on that.  Bush's credibility should become the new code word for Bush is a liar.

Second, every proposal will be limited by his real objectives (crudely stated, to transfer wealth away from the poor and middle class to the wealthy and corporate interests).  These real limits will force Bush to evade details or couch most proposals as "transferring responsibility to the individual" (i.e. cutting programs) or "reforming" (i.e. cutting programs).  Kerry should take advantage of these evasions.  Also, if Bush can play the "how will he pay for it" game, the Kerry should play too.  Contrast the program proposals with Bush's continuing desire to cut taxes.  Re-frame Bush's programs as an attempt to secretly cut programs and reduce benefits.

Bush plans to announce Friday that he wants to make flextime more available to the nation's workers as part of a reelection platform built around creating jobs and increasing the financial independence of families - Bush has no credibility on this subject. The number and ways that Bush has attacked the nation's workers is innumerable.  GW can be painted as not credible since he panders to corporations and the rich at the expense of the working class.  Taxes, benefits, medical care, etc. are all examples.  Kerry will lower middle class taxes, raise taxes for the rich, etc.  Bush has cut funding for jobs training, rewarded outsourcing, refused to provide real stimulus to the economy.  everything Bush did in his first term hurt the working families.  Kerry will reduce outsourcing, provide real jobs training.  Kerry should keep saying, "I won't hurt the middle class by doing X (X being one of Bush's new proposals re-framed in its true light), instead I will help them by doing Y (where Y is X with the hidden agenda removed)."

Bush will detail his .... plans for 'a new era of ownership,' a rubric that includes his plans for increasing home ownership and giving people greater control over their health insurance. . . . - Again, Bush has no credibility in this area. "New era of ownership" is the code word for making the individual (or state) pay for something that the Government pays for now.  Home ownership is already at an all time high due to uncontrolled proliferation of Adjustable Rate Mortgages with artificially low interest rates. If the economy heats up or interest rates rise there will be unprecedented levels of foreclosures as rates grow beyond people's ability to pay. Greater control over our health insurance means a move towards medical savings accounts, something that benefits the wealthy and allows corporations to reduce their paid coverage.  Kerry should speak to his plans to address medical insurance for the uninsured.  He should explain how he will provide a REAL prescription drug plan.  Few people on the left or right disagree that the medical industry is out of control.  Kerry should propose a real and bi-partisan effort to reform the medical industry.  (Whether he'd be successful is doubtful though but if Bush can play the game, so can Kerry.)

Bush will propose new initiatives to improve schools - He has no credibility on this, perhaps the least credibility of all.  His history with No Child Left Behind, his track record in Texas, his desire to abandon failing schools through the use of vouchers and charter schools, his desire to privatize school systems, and his disdain for the poor among which some of the worst schools are all clear counter examples to his empty promises for educational improvements.  Kerry successfully addresses these through increased teacher pay, more emphasis on earlier schooling, and real funding of educational initiatives instead of unfunded state mandates.

Cultural

Gay Marriage is so last week.  Kerry has successfully launched the meme that Bush is a divider an not a uniter.  Bush will walk on tip toes around cultural issues for a while.  The anti flag burning amendment is circulating just below the surface.  My father, a retired military officer, says that there are petitions and proposals being circulated around various retired military associations to make this an issue (to his credit Bush's messing with the constitution, something my dad spent thirty years pledged to defend, has almost but not quite pushed him into voting for a Democrat for the very first time.)

Religion won't go away in this campaign.  Bush will continue to beat the God issue.  He will continue to attempt to make himself out as God's candidate and Kerry out as a religious opportunist.  Expect to see him in church, offering prayers, etc.

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Bush is going to look like he's on the attack in the next few weeks.  In fact he is running a holding action as he waits, hopes, prays that some new more favorable dynamic takes hold.  There will be a very strong effort at the Republican National Convention to once again reframe the issues.  Right now, for the first time in the election, Kerry holds the advantage.  Whether he can hold that advantage depends on how consistently he can keep alive the memes launched in the last few days and continue to frame every new Bush proposal as not credible while offering specific counter proposals.