Convention bump & the expectations game

Another good diary entry got me to thinking about the convention bump. Once you cut through the expectations game (the GOP is predicting a much larger bump than Kerry's people, of course), what can the Kerry/Edwards camp realistically hope for after August?

A CBS News Poll released yesterday has the horserace at :

Kerry 49%
Bush 44%
MoE 5%

That seems rather soft given Bush's favorable/unfavorable rating:

Fav: 37%
Unfav: 48%

We have all heard the correlation between a President's job approval & his reelection percentage. Given, job approval and favorability are two different things, but they're close.

So, I have to say, I think it's realistic to see Kerry, after we get the Edwards bump and the convention bump, to make up a part of that difference between Bush's horserace and job approval.

Do I think Kerry is walking away from the convention with an 11% bump? No. And actually, I hope he doesn't... that means he's peaking way too early and risks losing momentum by November. But could we be talking about 55%/45% by mid-August? I think that's very realistic.

Thoughts?