Danish PM triggers general election - His biggest problem: Iraq

Remember: Denmark is a member of the coalition of the willing (to our shame) and there are Danish troops in Iraq.

Conservative-leaning Danish PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen today announced in Parliament that he has asked the Queen to call for a general election, and that the election will be held on February 8.

The Prime Minister is in a very strong position, expected to cruise to reelection, but he does have one liability: Iraq.

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A little background: The Prime Minister came into power with a strong election victory in Nov. 2001, ousting the sitting Social Democratic government in what amounts to a landslide by Danish standards. He did it by focusing on 3 issues:

a)    Immigrants and refugees in Denmark
b)    Law and order
c)    Fatigue with the ruling Social Democrats.

Now, in 2005, the Prime Minister has a lot of things going for him.

1)    The Social Democrats are still shell-shocked from their massive defeat in 2001, and their new leader has very high personal unfavorable.
2)    The Prime Minister has done a Blair in reverse: He's used blairite methods to challenge the existing center-left consensus - mainly by convincing Social Democratic voters that he's just as much in favor of the welfare state as they are.

However, the Prime Minister is trying to undermine the center-left consensus slowly, and most openly so in the area of foreign policy.

Traditionally, every major foreign policy decision in Denmark has been made with very broad support in Parliament - joining NATO in 1948, joining the EU in 1973, to name a few. But the Prime Minister does not subscribe to this view, and he broke away from it completely on Iraq.

The Danish involvement in Iraq was the result of a decision made by a relatively narrow majority in Parliament and against the majority of the voters, according to polls. The build-up to war was characterized by lying and manipulation and the intelligence material was flawed to say the least. Any criticism was met with the "would you rather have Saddam?" line, and to this day no one in government has admitted to any mistakes on the Iraq issue. And a lot of voters are angry about it.

Everybody with half a mind knows the whole thing was an attempt on the PM's part to break away from the Social Democratic consensus line he so despises (when not in public), and it backfired.

Despite the Prime Minister's strong position and clear lead in the polls, Iraq is his Achilles' heel. It contradicts his attempts to look "soft" and appealing to Social Democratic women. Already yesterday - the day before he announced the election - a Social Democratic youth group had posters out with the PM and his buddy George Bush hee-hawing around Iraq. They, at least, get it: The PM must be made to account for Iraq.