NRSC defends Dole, 2006 candidate recruitment

The NRSC is on the defensive.

As Kos noted recently, Senator Elizabeth Dole has done a terrible job of recruiting candidates for 2006 Senate races (click link to see Kos' recent outlook)

The NRSC apparently realizes they've been getting some bad press, so they're trying to fight back. Today they sent out this lame defense of their 2006 recruiting efforts. I managed to get a hold of the release, and passed it along to other members of our organization.

It's kind of funny, but I think it's worth knowing what their talking points are. Let's get started:

To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Stephens, Executive Director, NRSC
Re: Candidate Recruitment

As you may have seen, there has been an article or two regarding recruiting in the past week.  Frankly, some of these stories are shortsighted, incomplete and ignore political common sense.  I hope you'll take an opportunity to look at a more objective view and I would welcome your thoughts and comments.

continued after the flip...

continued:

The Facts:

Most would agree that there are three classes of election races to recruit - Incumbents, Open Seats and Challengers to the other party's incumbent seats.  I think most knowledgeable people would also agree that recruitment should be prioritized in that same order.

If you examine recruiting in that context - the proper context to have the best opportunities to win races next November - then the recruiting job by Elizabeth Dole and the GOP is remarkably good.  

Oh really? Funny how we're always supposed to look at reality through their narrow, distorted lens. Even they say we have to examine recruiting in "that context" before making the absurd conclusion that "the recruiting job by Elizabeth Dole and the GOP is remarkably good."

It's easier to recruit good candidates for open seats than it is to recruit good candidates to challenge incumbents.

Dole has done an awful job of recruiting challengers to go up against Democratic incumbents:

Capito's decision [not to run against Robert Byrd] comes on the heels of North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven's decision to pass on a race against Dem Kent Conrad.  Vermont's Republican Governor Jim Douglas refused to take on Bernie Sanders. And so on. In fact, the NRSC's only high-profile challenger is one they wish would go away -- Florida's Katherine Harris.

If you don't field a strong slate of challengers, you are handing the other side's incumbents easy reelection campaigns. Those incumbents can then lend resources, money, and strategic support to challengers and candidates running for open seats.

We're beating the crap out of Dole. Don't believe this NRSC nonsense. Of course they're going to defend their lame performance. I wonder if they actually believe what they say.

On we go:

Incumbents:

How many of the 9 freshmen Senators (2 Democrat, 7 Republican) from 2004 beat an incumbent?  1...Thune over Daschle.  The other 8 ran in open seats.  There are two things to learn from this.  First, incumbents rarely lose and secondly, the best opportunity for a pick-up is in an open seat.  Regarding incumbents, what is the tally of Senators running for re-election?  So far 14 of 15 Republicans (93%) and 14 of 18 Democrats and Independents (78%) - if the New Jersey seat becomes open.  In the most important category that defines most election opportunities, Elizabeth Dole and the GOP have done a superb job.

Open Seats:

The second priority is securing first rate candidates for Democrat and Republican open seats.  How many open seats do Republicans have at risk this cycle?  Currently the number is 1, Tennessee - a red state with three solid Republicans - a mayor of a major Tennessee city and two former Congressmen - as candidates to replace Majority Leader Bill Frist.  Any of the three will be favored to retain that seat.  We'll know in a month (New Jersey Governor's race) if the Democrats have 4 open seats.  They are Maryland, Vermont, Minnesota and New Jersey.  In each of these open seats, Republicans have recruited Tier One candidates.  Lt. Governor Michael Steele in Maryland, successful businessman Rich Tarrant and Lt. Governor Brian Dubie in Vermont, Congressman Mark Kennedy in Minnesota and Tom Kean, Jr., a legislator and son of the popular former Governor of New Jersey.  These are all impressive recruiting victories by Elizabeth Dole and the GOP in the second most important group of campaigns.

Challengers:

Democrats claim to have recruited three quality candidates against Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania, Missouri and Arizona.  This is not the forum to dispute the Democrat's claims, but let it suffice to say that our candidates - Mike McGavick (Safeco CEO) in Washington who just reported raising over $700,000 in just 9 weeks and successful businessman Peter Ricketts in Nebraska (Former COO of Ameritrade) who raised nearly $375,000 in just 7 weeks are just as good.  Again, Elizabeth Dole and the GOP have recruited well.

Conclusion:

Heading into the 2006 election, Republicans will be defending 15 seats, fourteen with incumbents, while the Democrats are defending 18 seats, four of which may be open seats.  The Republican open seat candidate in Tennessee will be favored in the general election. In all four Democrat open seats, the NRSC has successfully recruited Tier 1 candidates.

Recent articles have ignored major Democrat recruiting misses in Virginia, Rhode Island and Maine.  Most articles have also omitted mention of potentially nasty and destructive Democrat primaries in Maryland, Minnesota, Montana and Ohio.

Ranking recruits is a cyclical pastime for Washington.  That is not to downplay the importance of recruiting, but there is a bottom line:  Can the recruited candidate muster or contribute the financial resources, build the needed grass roots organization and take a compelling message to the voters?  Those elements are the fundamental building blocks that create competitive campaigns capable of winning.  In each of the states I've mentioned above, our Republican candidates have the ability to do just that.  By what other means should you measure a candidate? Elizabeth Dole and the GOP have kept their eye on the ball and done a great job recruiting candidates for next year's races.

Yes, and Mike Brown did a superb job managing the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Funny how each paragraph ends with a sentence or two of flat out praise for "Dole and the GOP". When it comes to publicly admiring yourself, no one is better at it than the Beltway Republicans.

I'll take issue personally with one of the races. I live in Washington State. I can tell you that Mike McGavick, despite his money, isn't going to be a great candidate. For one, he has little name recognition. Second, he's a former insurance industry executive - and what kind of voter has any great fondness for their insurance company? Third, there's plenty of fodder to hit McGavick with. He hasn't been to Congress yet, but believe me - he's got a record.

I could go on and on here, but please feel free to join in debunking this in the comment threads.