Since the punditry is obsessed with pointing out all the many ways Democrats are unelectable or doomed, I thought it high time to consider what problems Bush faces in getting re-elected. I have my own notions about how Bush can lose, and I'd like to open the floor to hear yours.
Let me stipulate that the country will be pretty much as evenly-divided between Democrats and Republicans on election day as it was in 2000.
It should be easy to see how Bush is vulnerable on the economy. Even if the economy improves, it is unlikely that the jobs picture will be fundamentally better by November, and jobs are really what matter. Meanwhile, Bush's poor management of the federal budget speaks for itself. The AP today documented the Changes in Budget During the Bush Years:
- Bush's first budget projected annual surpluses from 2002 through 2011 would total $5.6 trillion, before his tax and spending proposals took effect. In its most recent projection last summer, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said it expected $1.4 trillion in total deficits from 2004 through 2013 - excluding any future tax or spending changes.
- The cumulative national debt stood at $5.7 trillion when Bush took office, and his first budget proposed reducing it by $2 trillion over the next decade. Today, the debt stands at $7 trillion.
- Bush's first budget projected that in fiscal 2004 - which runs through next Sept. 30 - the government would spend $2.077 trillion. Instead it will spend $2.305 trillion, according to the latest CBO estimate.
- Bush's first budget also estimated the government would raise $2.339 trillion in revenue this year. The CBO projects $1.825 trillion in revenue.
- All together, the CBO has forecast a 2004 deficit of $480 billion - instead of the $262 billion surplus Bush predicted for this year in his first budget, assuming his policies were enacted.
There's nothing good there.
I believe Bush is vulnerable on national security as well. Zafar Sobhan laid out Bush's vulnerabilities in his column last week and made the case that Bush is vulnerable on the national security issue in at least three ways:
- 9/11 may not have been avoidable, but it was a massive intelligence failure that happened on Bush's watch
- Bush has not made the U.S. any safer since 9/11
- Bush's go-it-alone strategy is exactly the wrong way to fight terrorists
I urge you to read the entire thing. Sobhan concludes:
Bush is vulnerable in November. Not just because of the economy, not just because of his mendacity, not just because of the spending cuts targeting the poor and the tax breaks for the rich, not just because he has steadfastly taken the country in a direction that most people feel uncomfortable with. Bush is vulnerable on his own home turf. If the issue that decides November's election is national security, then a smart Democratic challenger should be able to make the case against Bush well enough to ride him out of town on a rail.
Today, Ann McFeatters of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette offers three scenarios that could sabotage Bush's chances. But they are all based on bad things happening, and are prefaced with all the 'advantages' Bush has.
I'm still waiting for someone in the American media to assess Bush's re-election prospects by highlighting all the reasons he's not likely to win a second term -- just as most assessments of the Democrats' prospects have featured unrelenting gloom and doom -- by focusing on his record as president. Hopefully, others among you can get the ball rolling by articulating the numerous ways Bush faces an uphill battle.
Onward,