All the President's Men: Leakgate predictions (w/poll)
Fri Oct 07, 2005 at 06:51:49 PM PDT
So, on the day of Rove's reappearance before the federal grand jury investigating the outing of CIA officer Valerie Plame, in the growing scandal know popularly known as "Leakgate" I thought it might be good for us to take some time, and make our predictions about where the grand jury is headed.
Many options have been discussed, ranging from indictments up to and including President Bush, to an end to the investigation with no charges.
Below the fold, I'll detail some of the most likely outcomes, and also make my predictions for the final results.
First of all, at this point is increasingly unlikely the grand jury will expire with out issuing indictments. Since Cooper broke his silence, every move Independent Counsel Patrick
Fitzgerald has made is of a prosecutor who believes a crime has been committed, and has a
good idea of who committed it. The question now is who will be indicted, and on what charges?
Scenario A
Fitzgerald is unable to make a case for leaking Plame's name. However, the inconsistent statements of Karl Rove, and others, provided ample ammunition to pursue charges of perjury, obstruction of justice, and perhaps conspiracy charges related to an administration cover up.
Scenario B
Rove, and a few other prominent players in the scandal will be indicted either under the Intelligence Identities Protection Act or under other statutes relating to espionage or the
unauthorized transfer of classified information.
Scenario C
The better part of Bush's kitchen cabinet -Rove, Libby Hadley et al.- will be indicted for not only the leak, but also for crimes relating to the cover up.
Based on everything I've read; all the rumors I've seen floating around; my understanding of the facts of the case and the applicable statutes; and also my familiarity with how Fitzgerald operates; I feel confident making the following prediction.
It's going to be C. Fitzgerald is going after them all, Rove, Libby, Hadley... all the President's men, on the toughest, most solid charges he can apply; that is to say, the federal espionage and censorship law, and a number of lesser charges relating to the cover up, not to mention conspiracy to tie them all together.
And I further predict Fitzgerald will ask for an extension for the grand jury so that it can move up the food chain. Because he's not going to stop until every one who had a hand in this is made to answer for it. My guess would be that the next stage of the investigation would focus on even higher level players, such as Rice, Powell, and Cheney. He may also take another look at Bush's role, but likely will not move to indict him because it will be unclear how much Bush knew of just what took place in his White House.
Those are my Leakgate predictions. Let's hear yours.