The
50 State Presidential Approval numbers are in from SUSA, and OH MAN ARE THEY UGLY for the Decider! His numbers have fallen in all but 6 states since last month's report. Look below the fold to see the change since last month (April) in table format. Special feature: I've also added change since March. Which states did he improve in? Which states hate him the most? Which state saw his number drop the most? Which 2004 red state is regretting its decision the most? How many states still have a majority that approves of Shrubya (hint: fewer than the fingers on my hand)?
Click on There's More. You know you wanna...
Rnk | State | 2004 | App | Dis | May | Apr | Mar | change | 2mo |
1 | Kansas | Bush | 35% | 61% | -26% | -5% | -8% | -21% | -18% |
2 | Missouri | Bush | 29% | 68% | -39% | -25% | -24% | -14% | -15% |
3 | Washington | Kerry | 32% | 65% | -33% | -21% | -25% | -12% | -8% |
4 | Oregon | Kerry | 31% | 67% | -36% | -24% | -25% | -12% | -11% |
5 | Arkansas | Bush | 32% | 64% | -32% | -22% | -28% | -10% | -4% |
6 | Nebraska | Bush | 47% | 51% | -4% | 6% | 1% | -10% | -5% |
7 | Tennessee | Bush | 37% | 60% | -23% | -13% | -19% | -10% | -4% |
8 | Utah | Bush | 51% | 46% | 5% | 15% | 13% | -10% | -8% |
9 | Kentucky | Bush | 34% | 64% | -30% | -20% | -18% | -10% | -12% |
10 | New Hampshire | Kerry | 32% | 66% | -34% | -25% | -28% | -9% | -6% |
11 | North Carolina | Bush | 35% | 63% | -28% | -19% | -16% | -9% | -12% |
12 | South Carolina | Bush | 35% | 62% | -27% | -18% | -12% | -9% | -15% |
13 | Wyoming | Bush | 50% | 49% | 1% | 10% | 7% | -9% | -6% |
14 | Texas | Bush | 42% | 56% | -14% | -6% | -14% | -8% | 0% |
15 | Wisconsin | Kerry | 36% | 63% | -27% | -19% | -18% | -8% | -9% |
16 | Alaska | Bush | 43% | 54% | -11% | -3% | -2% | -8% | -9% |
17 | Arizona | Bush | 39% | 59% | -20% | -13% | -8% | -7% | -12% |
18 | Indiana | Bush | 36% | 61% | -25% | -18% | -17% | -7% | -8% |
19 | Minnesota | Kerry | 33% | 65% | -32% | -25% | -19% | -7% | -13% |
20 | California | Kerry | 28% | 71% | -43% | -37% | -30% | -6% | -13% |
21 | North Dakota | Bush | 40% | 56% | -16% | -10% | -8% | -6% | -8% |
22 | Vermont | Kerry | 24% | 73% | -49% | -43% | -38% | -6% | -11% |
23 | Georgia | Bush | 41% | 58% | -17% | -12% | -8% | -5% | -9% |
24 | South Dakota | Bush | 39% | 59% | -20% | -15% | -13% | -5% | -7% |
25 | Michigan | Kerry | 29% | 67% | -38% | -33% | -38% | -5% | 0% |
26 | Pennsylvania | Kerry | 28% | 70% | -42% | -37% | -30% | -5% | -12% |
27 | Hawaii | Kerry | 33% | 61% | -28% | -24% | -21% | -4% | -7% |
28 | Ohio | Bush | 32% | 65% | -33% | -29% | -30% | -4% | -3% |
29 | Alabama | Bush | 44% | 54% | -10% | -6% | 5% | -4% | -15% |
30 | West Virginia | Bush | 37% | 59% | -22% | -18% | -18% | -4% | -4% |
31 | Louisiana | Bush | 43% | 54% | -11% | -7% | -21% | -4% | 10% |
32 | Delaware | Kerry | 26% | 72% | -46% | -43% | -40% | -3% | -6% |
33 | Maryland | Kerry | 29% | 67% | -38% | -35% | -39% | -3% | 1% |
34 | New Jersey | Kerry | 26% | 70% | -44% | -41% | -44% | -3% | 0% |
35 | New York | Kerry | 23% | 74% | -51% | -48% | -42% | -3% | -9% |
36 | Idaho | Bush | 52% | 45% | 7% | 10% | 3% | -3% | 4% |
37 | Oklahoma | Bush | 48% | 51% | -3% | 0% | 2% | -3% | -5% |
38 | Colorado | Bush | 35% | 64% | -29% | -26% | -25% | -3% | -4% |
39 | Maine | Kerry | 31% | 68% | -37% | -35% | -43% | -2% | 6% |
40 | Massachusetts | Kerry | 26% | 72% | -46% | -44% | -45% | -2% | -1% |
41 | New Mexico | Bush | 35% | 63% | -28% | -26% | -23% | -2% | -5% |
42 | Rhode Island | Kerry | 23% | 75% | -52% | -50% | -42% | -2% | -10% |
43 | Iowa | Bush | 35% | 64% | -29% | -27% | -27% | -2% | -2% |
44 | Florida | Bush | 36% | 61% | -25% | -24% | -22% | -1% | -3% |
45 | Illinois | Kerry | 31% | 67% | -36% | -38% | -28% | 2% | -8% |
46 | Mississippi | Bush | 47% | 52% | -5% | -9% | 2% | 4% | -7% |
47 | Virginia | Bush | 39% | 58% | -19% | -23% | -18% | 4% | -1% |
48 | Connecticut | Kerry | 31% | 68% | -37% | -42% | -34% | 5% | -3% |
49 | Nevada | Bush | 37% | 62% | -25% | -31% | -23% | 6% | -2% |
50 | Montana | Bush | 46% | 52% | -6% | -15% | -5% | 9% | -1% |
Overall weighted net approval: -31% (33%/64%)
Change since last month: -5%
Sinking:
1. Kansas - WOW! A 21% drop in friggin' Kansas? 61% of Kansas voters now disapprove of the Pres. Looks like the immigration issue bombed here. Meanwhile, Governor Sebelius is cruising to re-election. Maybe whatever the matter with Kansas was is starting to clear up. Approval ratings hovering between mid forties and 50% suddenly tank to 35% (the backwash), and the drop is mostly among Republicans (59% approval). Fun note: Bush drops 11% with Hispanics (30% approval) - they know his plan is BS, too. 60% of whites disapprove of Bush.
2. Missouri - 14% drop, which spells bad news for Jim Talent. Stem cell issues could be playing a role here, but I think this is immigration again - his stance plays really badly in midwestern states like Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. Add an amazingly unpopular GOP governor to the mix, and you've got a formula for trouble for the Missouri GOP. 68% of Missouri disapproves of Dubya! WOW! Gender wise, the drop is all male (from 46% to 32%) because women (27% both months) were already ahead of the curve. Last month's 19% gender gap has shrunk to 5% as guys finally figure out what the ladies knew already. The number of Hispanics is fairly small (2% of the sample) but it's worth knowing that Bush plummeted 24% with them. You don't need an education to know what's going on here - 77% of Missourians with no college education disapprove. The drop in central Missouri is from 44% to 20% - that is stunning.
3. Washington and Oregon - Actually, I'm mainly mentioning these two to point out that despite Bush plummeting 12% in both states, Missouri (see above) still gives the president worse numbers. Hooray for buyer's remorse! Oh, and I suppose this bodes well for WA Sen. Cantwell and OR Gov. Kulongowski to boot. WA women drop W from 38% to 29, while the men stay about the same (37 to 36), creating a 7% gender gap. 18-34 year olds (26% app) drop Bush 9% in Oregon, while Hispanics there drop him 15% (28% app). Minorities in Washington all dropped Bush by 10% or more: Blacks -17 (6% app), Hispanics -13 (42% app), Asian/Other -10 (24% app). Last month, Hispanics in both states approved of the president more than whites; this is still true in Washington, but not Oregon. Bush drops 10% with Oregon Republicans but gains 9% with conservatives - Huh? Meanwhile, last month's bizarre 19% approval from Washinton liberals (compared to 11% of Democrats) becomes a much more sensible 8%; were they liberal Republicans or something? Libertarians? Eastern Washington (Spokanistan) drops Bush from 54% to 38%, while the red part of Oregon (everyong that isn't Portland) tanks 9% to 34. Awesome.
4. Arkansas, Nebraska, Tennesee, Kentucky, and Utah - 5 red non-border states where Bush dropped 10% in the past month. A majority of Utah now approves of Bush by only the slimmest of margins - 51%. There's an amazing gender flip-flop in Utah - 58M/51F last month but 47M/55F for May. And eat this, Paul Begala - the percentage of Utah voters identifying themselves as Democrats jumped from 17% to 27% in a single month. Nebraska women drop 8% and 18-34 year olds drop 14%; conservatives (-8% to 69) and liberals (-10% to 19) seem to have found something to agree on, although I still don't understand why liberals like him better than Democrats (17% app). Only 2% of Tennesee is Hispanic, but they dropped Bush off a cliff: from 47% to 13% approval. A 5% boost from TN conservatives does little to make up for an 11% drop from moderates and a 13% drop from independents. In Arkansas, the number of respondents who identify themselves as Democrats jumps from 39% to 46% (Booya!) while Bush's approval drops 17% with his own party. Blacks in Kentucky (7% of the population) actually like Bush quite a bit better than they did last month (14% rises to 31%), but Independents (-16%), Churchgoers (-11%), and those with a College degree (-19%) feel otherwise.
Soaring:
1. Montana - The latest Rasmussen poll shows trouble for Conrad Burns, but also a grim reality for Democrats: while both Tester and Morrison have a 4 point advantage over Burns, the relatively unknown Bob Keenan has a 1% lead over Tester and trails Morrison by only 2%. Montana is a very Republican state, and this month wipes out most of a 2 month slide as Bush rises 9% to a -6% net approval. Bush gains 9% among women, and an amazing 23% among the 18-34 demographic. Although Hispanics only make up 2% of Montana, they LOVE Bush this month: a meteoric rise from 43% to 89% approval. That 46% gain is more than double last month's number! The most disturbing trend is a 7% rise in the number of respondents who consider themselves conservative. I hope that's just an outlier.
2. Nevada - I guess Bush's guest-worker plan plays well among some Nevada Democrats. Bush gains 6% here, including 8% with 18-34 year olds, 8% with Blacks, 11% with Hispanics, and 9% with Democrats (WTF?), which are all Democratic demographics. Bush inexplicably rises with both conservatives (+7%) and liberals (+6%) while losing 2% with moderates. One common theme in both Montana and Nevada is either polarization or an increase in voter registration; The number of Independents in both states decline, from 44% to 30 in Montana and from 31% to 18% in Nevada. Both parties gain relatively equally from this trend in these two states. The effect this will have on the Governor's race is hard to say in this fast-growing state.
3. Conneticut - I blame Joe Lieberman. Like Nevada, Bush experiences a rise in approval from Blacks (+12%), Democrats (+5%), Conservatives (+12%), and Liberals (+5%), and the number of Independents declines 10%. Bush loses 5% from pro-lifers and gains 6% from the pro-choice crowd - your guess as to why is as good as mine. He does well in the cities too - +7% from Hartford and +10% from New Haven. I don't think this bodes well for Ned Lamont. To keep things in perspective, however, a whopping 68% still disapprove of the president.
Biggest change over 2 months:
Dropping:
1 KS -18%
2 AL -15%
2 SC -15%
2 MO -15%
5 MN -13%
5 CA -13%
Rising:
1 LA 10%
2 ME 6%
3 ID 4%
4 MD 1%
Overall approval:
Last month's rank in parentheses ()
Highest:
# ST APP DIS LW
1 ID 52% 45% (3)
2 UT 51% 46% (1)
3 WY 50% 49% (2)
4 OK 48% 51% (5)
5 NE 47% 51% (4)
5 MS 47% 52% (11)
Lowest:
# ST APP DIS LW
1 RI 23% 75% (1)
1 NY 23% 74% (1)
3 VT 24% 73% (4)
4 DE 26% 72% (4)
4 MA 26% 72% (3)
4 NJ 26% 70% (7)
Swing State Project - States that voted for Bush but have approval ratings lower than Wisconsin:
Missouri
Ohio
Arkansas
Kentucky
Colorado
Iowa
North Carolina
New Mexico
By the numbers:
Highest approval: Idaho, 52%
Number of states where appoval is 50% or better: 3 (UT, ID, WY)
Number of states where disapproval outweighs approval: 47
Bush's approval rate in Texas: 42% (56% disapprove)
Approval lower than 40%: 37 states
Best performance in a state that voted for Kerry: 36% (Wisconsin)
Approval lower than 30%: 11 states
Worst performance in a state that voted for Bush: 29% (Missouri)
Highest dispproval: 75% (Rhode Island)