Money? Organization Grassroots? Internet?
These things help, but there is one factor that is the far more important: amount of national positive media coverage. This expecially includes exposure in the popular culture media shows like Leno and Letterman.
Why? Because most people don't have the time or inclination to pay attention to politics. These voters make their decisions on general buzz and their feeling about the candidates. This is obtained by both the direct exposure the candidate receives on shows like 60 minutes, and by the buzz on TV.
What that means is that the most telegenic in terms of looks and personality has a large advantage. Celebrity is at least as important (eg, Schwarzenegger). The only requirement is that the candidate must have enough gravitas to be taken seriously, then telegenicity is of primary importance. Given Schwarzennegger's win, the threshold is not high.
This means that the media plays the most important role in determining the outcome of elections. therefore how the candidates come across, as well as how well the can engage the media to promote themselves and trash their opponents is key. I think this is very obvious.
Based on this principle alone, I would predict
the finish in this way:
- Edwards, handsome, engaging personality
- Clark, handsome, personable, but can he get enough exposure on national TV to show off his softer side?
- Dean, regular looks, but dynamic. He lives and dies by his personality. X factor. Difficult to place: could be first or fourth.
- Kerry, gaunt, wordy. Would lose by this analysis.
Given that Kerry may win NH, and will get the media focus for the next few weeks let's see how this plays out. the rapid pace of the primary season may allow him to overcome the superior telegenicity of Edwards by giving Kerry the lion's share of media exposure.
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Alot of words have been spend on dailykos and other internet sites talking about this election in terms of the power of money, organization, and grassroots with money being king. But just ask President Steve Forbes or Ross Perot how much nearly unlimited financial resources really counts without media support. Money is useful, but if you get positive free media attention on a popular show like 60 minutes, it is worth in the 10s of millions of dollars if not more. Becuase of the size of the audience, and because of the time allotted. how much would 15 minutes of advertizing cost to sponsor 60 minutes? So opting out of the campaign finance system is not as important as it might be. The key is the candidate's ability to make news and appear on popular shows.
Do you agree?