Quick Fix: Iraq had no friends, no friends that would rush to the aid of Saddam Hussein, no matter what the
casus belli.
Iran does not have this problem.
An attack on Iran would damage the interests of a wider range of countries, one far more vast than 'Islam'. It would be easily framed as an attack on the Third World, evidence that what the United States was fighting was not 'terror', but independence from its hegemony.
Would that this were just agitprop. But it just ain't so. The same model that predicts that Iraq had no friends says likewise about Afghanistan and Syria...but not Iran.
It says that mucking about with the Islamic Republic would indeed precipitate a Third World War, a struggle that would comingle West versus East, Christendom versus Islam, and global North versus Global South.
It would be, in the words of the Bard, a cluster.
All that follows is based on a long and (sniff sniff) rarely-noticed series of diaries on this topic. (Borrowing from Stuary Smiley:) That's...okay. I'm fine with that. I'm still... a nice person. :)
What matters here is the concept that countries are most inclined to pursue new alliances and enmities in the same way that investors shop for stocks to buy...and stocks to sell short. In typically flip fashion, I have dubbed the set of candidate friends for a given country The Sweet List, and the set of prospective adversaries The Hate list.
Since we're interested in the prospect of future war, we'll focus on the Hate List for the United States.
Now, this list (as the other) is overinclusive. It doesn't mean that we're actively shopping for war with all of the states on the list, but it suggests that such countries would do well not to attract the hostile notice of the government in Washington...and that might not save them, regardless.
Hate List: United States
Guatemala, Eritrea, Morocco, Algeria, Niger, Senegal, Malawi, Sri Lanka, Syria ,Burundi, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Rwanda, Iran, Peru, Cameroon, Angola, Yemen, Chad, Nepal, Madagascar, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Mali, Mexico
Italics - Countries with which we've been in active conflict in the past
Bold - Muslim states contemplated as neoconservative targets
In the case of Guatemala, I am referring to 1954 coup, conducted at United Fruit's behest and orchestrated by the CIA. What followed was thirty years of murder and mayhem in the name of anticommunism, all because United Fruit refused to accept the indemnity offered by the Arbenz government as part of its land repatriation program -- the amount declared by United Fruit on its property taxes.
Since that amount was somewhat less than the actual value of the property, United Fruit felt...cheated. And did something about it; led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Guatemalans in order to not have to pay more taxes.
But that's another story altogether.
So, Iran's on the Americans' Hate List. Tell me something I don't know
Okay...it's on the Hate List of France, the UK, Italy, South Korea, Spain, Australia, and Poland.
And that's a far smaller list than that enjoyed by Iraq.
And Iran has far more friends, too (Iraq has none)
The Islamic Republic is on the Sweet List of: China, India, Turkey, Thailand, Argentina, Egypt, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia, Colombia, South Africa, New Zealand, Bulgaria, Uzbekistan, Cuba, North Korea, Finland, Ireland, Portugal, Belarus, Slovakia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Dominican Republic, Croatia, Singapore, Jamaica, Latvia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Morocco, Uruguay, Georgia, Saudi Arabia, Slovenia, Costa Rica, Lithuania, Armenia, Estonia, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Jordan, Haiti, Albania, Paraguay, Tunisia, Panama, Montenegro, Luxembourg, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, West Bank, Martinique, Iceland, Malta, Bahrain, Qatar, Bahamas, Cyprus, Barbados, Mauritius, Lebanon, Gaza Strip, Botswana, Mongolia, Saint Lucia, Kuwait, Reunion, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Cape Verde, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Grenada, Micronesia, Dominica, Andorra, ntigua and Barbuda, Bermuda, Maldives, Belize, Marshall Islands, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Cayman Islands, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino, Seychelles, Palau, Anguilla, Sao Tome and Principe, Kiribati, Tonga, Nauru, Montserrat, Tuvalu
Nice list. Your point?
Here's the list of countries that had Iraq on their Sweet List as of 2003:
crickets chirping
Thoughts
That list of potential allies for Iran -- not all military allies, but allies nonetheless -- is vast, and spread across the Earth. Think of an area of the planet where a hamfisted military intervention has occurred on Uncle Sam's dime. Think of a location that experiences gross wealth disparities, and perceives the local haves as being cronies for far more powerful paymasters overseas.
Now introduce the third in a succession of wars on Third World countries. The first two were on isolated governments with no friends, nor any real danger of acquiring them in any contest with the United States.
Iran is not such a country. Iran has cast its revolution as not only pro-Muslim, but anti-colonialist, a message that resonates in China, in India, in much of Africa and all of Latin America.
And this is the real danger: Not that we will have engendered Huntington's clash of civilizations, but sparked a global class war.
A few years hence, China would most likely be part of the haves, perhaps India, too, and fighting alongside the United States. Ditto for the many countries of 'new' Europe, as their material well-being rises to Western levels. In this instance, an American attack on Iran would be protested, condemned...and ignored, just as the invasion of Iraq was.
However, having a conflict with Iran now, right now, while China and India still perceive themselves as champions of the Third World, still play to the home gallery as anti-imperialist heroes, albeit with subdued tones, would be asking for trouble.
Fear not what all of Islam will do, should we invade Iran.
Fear what all of the world will do, should we do so.