Oh, it is worse than you think, the Bankruptcy bill seals our fate of collapse

I feel like Cassandra.. I keep telling people that this bill is not just a miserable bill, but will turn a bad problem, perhaps a crisis, into a collapse.

We are headed toward a true collapse. Not the 40+ years from now the "SS crisis" might happen, closer to 5, maybe 10. Maybe its already starting. Not a bankrupt system, but a bankrupt country.

This bankruptcy bill will be the fuel to the flame, the manure on the field...

and its all about...

Health care. Oh, don't shake your head, don't stop reading. It's coming and it will affect you directly, every one of you. And its a lot worse than you think.

Exhibit 1: Genomics. The human genome project has already made a huge, overwhelming, impact on biological research, both in industry and academia. An impact that feeds my company. There is not a discipline now in biology or medicine that does not need genomic data, there isn't a scientist or medical researcher that doesn't use or need to use genomic data. Genomic data now drives research.

And the impact is soon to be felt by the medical professsion. It already is. As we characterize more genes, determine more genetic variations that cause disease, medical professionals will need more information, understand genomics. We already have drugs designed based on genomic data, tests based on genomic data that pinpoint future diseases, those are the tip of the iceberg.

and that is where the impact will be felt by you. They are already calling it Personal Genomics. It basically comes down to this: It took 12 years and 3 billion dollars to map and sequence a human genome, within 5 or so years it will take a day and $1,000 to sequence YOUR genome. With that information you will know dozens of possible diseases you have a propensity for, treatments that will work for you and those that won't, specific personalized lifestyle changes that will extend your life.

The information will be a boon to your medical care, but it will also be the seed of an impending healthcare crisis. Because not only will you have the information, so will your insurer and your employer.

You thought 'pre-existing' conditions made it difficult and expensive to get insurance now (or impossible), wait till they have the entire genome and every disease and condition to which you are susceptible available for perusal. I have personal experience with this. I have high blood pressure, an inherited condition I've had since at least 18 (when discovered). Because of that, my insurance is twice the cost of someone else my age without the condition (like my partner). At this time, there is a Genetic non-discrimination act that passed the senate on a vote of 98-0 and goes to the House (it passed the Senate in 2003, but the House did not take it up). This act would make it illegal for an insurance company to deny insurance because of an applicant's genomic makeup. If it doesn't pass, it would have a negative effect. Eventually, only the rich or very genetically lucky would be able to afford insurance.

But what if it does pass? And your genomic information is private. Insurance companies have warned, and for once I agree, that the disparity of health insurnace costs will increase anyway. As individuals know the diseases and conditions that they are susceptible too, they will buy into insurance that would cover treatments for those, and not paying for those policies that insure against conditions they are not likely to get. The cost of all policies will rise tremendously as insurance companies start to pay out larger amounts than they bring in.

Insurance usually works when large numbers of people spread the costs of what are, for all practical purposes, random events. When the numbers of the insured and 'healthy' fall, the cost for those left skyrocket, when the events are not random any longer (we know now), the numbers of the insured and healthy fall.

The seed is planted.

And the ground is fertile:

Exhibit 2: Health insurance and care costs The cost of health insurance has risen by double digits for 6 years. Remember, the inflation rate for the period has been 2-3% annually. Businesses and individuals have to spend larger and larger portions of their income towards health insurance.

Exhibit 3: Bankruptcy and health care costs Several recent studies have shown that nearly 1/2 of all personal bankruptcies were brought on mainly by health care costs. It wasn't just the shopper who couldn't stop charging the cards, or the gambler who just had to put in one more dollar, no it was also the family who had to take care of a grandmother with alzheimer's or the family where illness of the primary wage-earner costs in health costs and lost wages. You might think that these were the uninsured, but 75% of those who went bankrupt due to health costs were insured.

Exhibit 4: Personal bankruptcy just got harder  As you all know, The Republican-controlled congress is passing the largest bankruptcy law changes in a decade or more, making it harder, nearly impossible, for families to get out of crushing debt. Though amendments were suggested that would make bankruptcies due to health care costs exempt from the restrictions, these were rejected. If you haven't already, see Maryscott's most excellent rant on those failed amendments

Does anyone see where we are headed? To continue on with the silly metaphor..

We've got the fertile ground of a health care/insurance system which will exacerbate problems.

We've got the rain storms of rapidly rising costs & bankruptcies due to those costs.

And now we're adding the fertilizer of making getting out of crushing debt nearly impossible.

The seed of personal genomics is planted, making insurance expensive or impossible

A crisis will grow quickly and soon, like a kudzu in a Georgian summer thanks to our Republican senators (and a few DINOs)

Don't we see it?

This month will go down as the month that our Congress elected to send our nation into the great collapse and depression of the 21st century.

don't make me a casssandra. believe me. Or convince me I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong, but I see no other future unless some radical changes are made, on the level of the New Deal....