For the next week, I'll try to average the 6 major tracking polls in NH (ARG, Zogby, UNH, Suffolk, Gallup/CNN, Globe/WBZ) to get a sense of the actual dynamic of the race.
Some of the polls are averaged over 2 days, others over 3 days. For the purposes of this running average of the 6 polls, they will be categorized according to the last day of polling. All of the following numbers are from the 2- or 3-day period ending 1/20 (yesterday). Since each poll has an average of apx. 200 respondants per day, they will be weighted equally. (The Zogby poll was introduced in the 1/19 results, the 1/18 results are an average of 5 polls. Averages are rounded to one decimal place. Minor candidates and undecided are omitted.)
6-Poll NH Tracking Average:
1/18 1/19
Dean: 28.8% 26.0%
Kerry: 21.8% 24.8%
Clark: 18.8% 17.5%
Edwards: 7.3% 8.0%
Lieberman: 6.3% 6.2%
Analysis: Kerry is up 3 points in a day, there's his Iowa Bounce. Actually, he had a much bigger pre-Iowa Bounce, already passing Clark before the Iowa results were in. Kerry had been eating into Clark and is starting to eat significantly into Dean's support. Some of the Dean defectors are heading undecided. Edwards' support is steadily growing, but has not caught a buzz like Kerry's yet. Lieberman is stagnant.