Don't give up

A lot of us thought this would be the final nail in BushCo's coffin; until the backlash began to subside and the spin machine kicked into high gear.  Damage control was, and remains, in full effect.

But no matter what you hear, no matter how bad it looks for us, or how much the public seems to be buying into it... just remember this:  It's just what they want you to think.  The Repubilcans and BushCo are in trouble and they know it.

Earlier today, Bush denied any racial component to Katrina response (Alternate version of the story here.)

"Look, there will be plenty of time to play the blame game," he said. "That's what you're trying to do. You're trying to say somebody is at fault. And, look, I want to know. I want to know exactly what went on and how it went on, and we'll continually assess inside my administration."

(I'm sure you'd be much more willing to start playing the "blame game" now if you knew the spinning arrow wouldn't land on yourself...)

"The storm didn't discriminate and neither will the recovery effort," Bush said. "The rescue efforts were comprehensive. The recovery will be comprehensive."

But it's not just what he said; it's how it was said.  (If anyone has a link to the video of Bush addressing the race issue, pass it on and I'll update; I was unable to locate one anywhere).  His tone was annoyed, as if the American public was daring to question his leadership and it was going out of his way to explain himself to us.  As soon as I saw it, it cried of desperation.  They're scrambling.  And as much as they try to cover their tracks, deep below the spin and damaged control lies the initial preceptions of the American people... one that this time, despite the spin, might just be sticking.


The numbers speak for themselves.


I.)  Bush Job Approval
Since Katrina, Bush's job approval numbers remain at all all-time low, with disapproval numbers at an all-time high.  Here are the latest polls, compiled by Polling Report.  The most recent data, plus one data set from at least two months ago was used to calculate trends.

Trend = Change in Approval/Disapproval from last polling
Net Disparity = Difference between change in Approval/Disapproval gap from last polling

ABC News/Washington Post
6/23-26:  Approve 48%  |   Disapprove  51%
9/08-11:  Approve 42%  |   Disapprove  57%    
Trend:     Approve -6%  |   Disapprove  +6%
Net Disparity:         12%

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey
7/07-10:  Approve 47%  |   Disapprove  46%   |   Unsure    7%
9/08-11:  Approve 40%  |   Disapprove  52%   |   Unsure    8%
Trend:     Approve -7%  |   Disapprove  +6%
Net Disparity:         13%

Newsweek
8/02-04:  Approve 42%  |   Disapprove  51%   |   Unsure    7%
9/08-09:  Approve 38%  |   Disapprove  55%   |   Unsure    7%
Trend:     Approve -4%  |   Disapprove  +4%
Net Disparity:         8%

Time
5/10-12:  Approve 46%  |   Disapprove  47%   |   Unsure    7%
9/08-09:  Approve 42%  |   Disapprove  52%   |   Unsure    6%
Trend:     Approve -4%  |   Disapprove  +5%
Net Disparity:         9%

Associated Press/Ipsos
8/01-03:  Approve 42%  |   Disapprove  55%  
9/06-08:  Approve 39%  |   Disapprove  59%   |   Unsure    6%
Trend:     Approve -3%  |   Disapprove  +4%
Net Disparity:         7%

CBS
7/29-8/2:  Approve 45%  |   Disapprove  46%   |   Unsure    9%
9/08-09:   Approve 42%  |   Disapprove  52%   |   Unsure    6%
Trend:     Approve -3%  |   Disapprove  +6%
Net Disparity:         9%

As these numbers show, Bush's numbers continue to fall as they had been pre-Katrina.  And there is no clear change in the polls taken in the last few days with Bush's approval rating between 38% and 42%.


II.)  Congress

Polls for the mid-term elections in 2006 have been favoring Democrats slightly since the 2004 elections.  But in the most recent Newsweek poll from September 8 - 9, the only poll I could find asking the question since Katrina, Democrats seem to have gained.

"To begin, suppose the elections for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY. Would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?"  If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat?"   Options rotated.

Republicans   Democrats Other/Unsure          
   38%               50%          12%

The second most recent poll taken by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (which shouldn't really be used for comparison or any poll anaylsis for but now will do) was from August 30-31.  It was phrased in a slightly different way but nonetheless serves this purpose of comparison and gave the Democrats only a slight edge with a large percent uncertain.

"Who do you want to win next year's congressional elections: the Democrats or the Republicans?"

Republicans   Democrats  Neither   Unsure    
    35%            38%         6%          21%

Next, I'm fairly certain it is well known that the Republicans control Congress.  The next set of polls focuses on Congress's job approval ratings; and since it is dominated by Republicans, we can assume reflects them for the most part.  This is less clear than the other polls, however.  

Associated Press/Ipsos poll
7/11-13:  Approve 35%  |   Disapprove  60%   |   Mixed Feelings    4%
9/06-08:   Approve 32%  |   Disapprove  65%   |   Mixed Feelings    2%
Trend:     Approve -3%  |   Disapprove  +5%
Net Disparity:         8%

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
NOTE:  This was polled pre-Katrina devastation, but reflects the growing disapproval of the Republican-controlled Congress; and by a Fox News poll no less.
3/29-30:  Approve 40%  |   Disapprove  36%   |   Unsure    24%
8/30-31:   Approve 28%  |   Disapprove  53%   |   Unsure    18%
Trend:     Approve -12%  |   Disapprove  +17%
Net Disparity:         29%

NOTE:  Upon closer look, additional data seems to indicate an equal feelings towards both Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

The moral of the story:  Don't give up.  Don't lose hope through the spin and damage control.  Don't let them scare us or bring us down.  They're vulnerable and now is the time to take back our country.