Hello Kossacks. Less than two years from now, we will be returning to our polling places determined to kick out horrendous Senators, Congressmen, Governors and State Legislators. For me, it's never too early to start talking about where we can win, who we should run, and what needs to be done. This is my first analysis of our Senate 2006 prospects. Feel free to add your own points. Obviously, all of this is speculation, but hell it's fun to do, and the earlier we get excited about it, the better in my opinion. I'm not predicting victory yet, only who could win, and what could possibly happen. I like the "what if" factor.
Democratic Seat Races To Watch
CA- What will Senator Feinstein do? She will be 73 years old and I know CA Dems will push for her to challenge Arnold for Governor as she is likely the only Democrat that could really take him down. I would love to see that, if nothing more than the psychological blow to the GOP to have their champion get kicked in the balls, by a woman no less. After those groping allegations, talk about irony.
Feinstein, if she runs for re-election, I believe is unbeatable. Who amongst the GOP could give her a serious challenge? Any of the recall characters? Issa? McClintock? Congressmen, such as David Dreir?
Unless the Democratic Party completely collapses in CA next year, Feinstein should be fine. I only bring her up here b/c of a possibility of retirement. Also, the GOP most likely will feel free to go after her, figuring that Arnold is a safe bet. Any spare $$ can go to knocking out Feinstein. Just something to chew on.
WV- If Byrd retires, hell I don't know. I know next to nothing about WV politics except that Bush won twice, and Bob Byrd could probably pull a Mel Carnahan and defeat any Republican in the state posthumously (forgive any morbidness there.) The Great Senator Byrd will be 88 years old next year. I haven't heard a retirement announcement, but obviously one has to think about it.
I think the GOP nominee would probably be US Rep Shelley Capito (is that how u spell it?) In an open race, she is the frontrunner. Do the Democrats have a wide bench in WV? Have they planned for the day when Senator Byrd would no longer be there? I haven't a clue. If Byrd retires, this seat is vulnerable to a GOP pickup. If Byrd runs, they don't get any safer for the Dems.
WI- Herb Kohl in WI. I hear he's pretty popular. I also hear, from fellow Kossacks, that Tommy Thompson would be favored to knock him out, should he decide to run. What gives there? I have to admit, compared to Russ Feingold, whom I've heard a great deal about, I did not know WI's other Senator's name until right before the 04 elections. WI is a battleground to end all battlegrounds, so certainly he can be vulnerable. This one is really tough to call. I'd say, simply from what I know of WI that it leans Democratic. But if Thompson runs, all bets are off. Am I right in this assessment?
MN- Not much need be said. Our weakest potential candidate announced that he was not running. That would be the incumbent Senator Dayton. I did like his language in the Rice confirmation hearings. I just don't understand why he did some things. What was the deal with the terrorist threat to his office? I'm not trying to knock him at all, but if he was worried about his numbers, worried about negative politics, then he did the right thing by bowing out. The GOP was certain to come after him. Mark Kennedy is my bet for the GOP. MN used to be solid Democratic territory, but ever since Wellstone's death, the party seems lost, at least in high profile races. We lost Wellstone's seat, we lost the race for Governor in 02 and Kerry hung on by the skin of his teeth to keep MN blue.
It's open now, I rate it a tossup. Had Dayton stayed, and Kennedy was the nominee, I would've given Kennedy a slight edge.
NM- Bingaman I think is fine. Despite the GOP rants that his vote against Gonzales makes him anti-Hispanic, Bingaman should be able to beat that back no problem. Honestly, this next confirmation hearing will probably feature a Christian trying to get nominated. If Bingaman votes against him/her, does that mean he's anti Christian, pro atheist or anything? The voters are not that stupid. My only concern is his lack of funds. Without the $$, you can have the best record and message in America, and you'll get beat, b/c you won't be able to tell enough folks about it. Here's to hoping his finances go up, and that should be one seat in a battleground state that we should not have to worry about.
FL- Bill Nelson, military man, Astronaut, Senator. Pretty good resume I'd say. Two problems, FL GOP and Katherine Harris. Harris has the ability to unite conservative activists, just by sticking her face in the door and saying hello. The FL GOP is SO PROUD that they stole FL from Gore (and rescuing Clay Shaw), and the leader of the thieves, Harris, after stepping back in 04 from an open seat race, will now most likely cash in on what the GOP owes her, and that's backing for 2006. Bill Nelson will be helped by the SS privatization debate as long as Dems continue to watch as the Republican house burns down. Nelson is a veteran of tough campaigns, in a state that can't get any closer politically. Nelson is the last remaining Democrat elected statewide in FL, we must protect him. I hope Harris runs, for we could end her political career at the same time. If that's the matchup, that's a tossup, with a hell of a lot of fun to be had.
NY- If Giuliani runs, then Senator Clinton will have a bit of a fight, though I think she can beat the former mayor. Especially if we use that current idiot GOP Chairman's comments as offense. Not to mention that on 9/11, Rudy took time out of rescuing New Yorkers to tell Bernie Kerik how awesome it was to have GWB as our President. In the midst of the biggest tragedy our country has faced in generations, and he's making partisan comments. So much for "We are all 1". Rudy could scare her, but Clinton has this one if she wants it.
CT- If Lieberman is the nominee, he'll win in a walk. If Lieberman is not the nominee, I will drink til I drop, while watching the Democratic nominee win in a walk. Joementum needs to go, and I would love to see him get beaten in the primary. He's nothing more than a Bush lackey, hungry for power. He wants a DOD job as soon as Rummy goes. He's a suckup. His voting record is solidly Democratic, but I don't have much tolerance for people who go on television and apologize for being a Democrat. This man ran for the nomination of his party for President, while apologizing for his party's liberal stances. Fortunately, he made it nowhere. Can we say primary?
Every other Democrat, as of right now, should win re-election fairly easily, even Ben Nelson. Both his high profile would be challengers, from what I've heard, have backed off. Any of these guys retire, then in NE and ND we may have problems, but everything else looks pretty secure right now.
Now for the Republicans.
TN- If Frist goes, he'll run for President. It's pretty clear that Harold Ford will be the Democratic nominee. This is very bad news for us. Ford, in my opinion, cannot win that seat. He's conservative enough to not make the progressives enthusiastic about him, he will not play very well in rural TN (my opinion) and on top of that, he comes across as an absolute asshole. Does anyone else remember his desperate last minute power grab attempt against Pelosi? I saw him on TV repeatedly snap at reporters, "Miss Pelosi DOES NOT have the votes." No Ms. Henderson, that MY PIECE OF CANDY, he STOLE it from ME. Harold Ford comes across to me as not much more than a righteous glory seeker. I hope I'm wrong. I want the Democrats to take this seat. The GOP has a solid enough bench to keep it. But it's hard to get enthusiastic about Ford, for me. I view the race, if it's Ford and GOP Van Hilleary (02 losing gubernatorial), then I mark it Leaning Republican.
MS- If Trent Lott runs, he'll win re-election hands down. No matter what he said on TV, most of MS loves this guy and will not toss him out. That would be like admitting that the damned liberal media was right, and they'll vote him right back in, then congratulate themselves for "showing those damned liberals."
If Trent Lott goes, it still leans GOP, but with the right candidate, the Democrats could steal the seat back. Former Atty Gnrl Mike Moore was incredibly popular and has statewide name recognition. He could certainly give likely GOP nominee Chip Pickering a run for his money. Chip, having never had to face voters that might not vote for him, could succumb to Moore. But, this being MS, despite being only a Congressman, Pickering also has statewide name ID, thanks to the whole deal with this father, Judge Pickering. This will benefit him. I for one think the Dems made a ridiculous mistake filibustering Charles Pickering. The man is no racist, not at all. When the state NAACP endorses you, and you're a white Southern Protestant, guess what? You ain't racist. But too late now. The Seat leans R without Lott, though Dems could pick up with Moore, or perhaps COngressman Gene Taylor. I'd rather Moore, for if Taylor ran, we can kiss his House seat goodbye.
MO- Talent is up. He's done nothing, absolutely nothing. Yet, this being MO, without a strong, aggressive Democratic challenger, he'll likely be rewarded with a full term for himself. Problem there! I don't really see that deep a bench to challenge Talent. Jean Carnahan will not run. Russ and Robin Carnahan were just elected to their respective positions. They are not ready. Claire McCaskill could wage a solid race, make Talent sweat, but I doubt she has the political muscle to knock him off. No doubt there's still some bitter feelings from "Holden Democrats" in MO. Bekki Cook? Barely lost for LT Gov, and now has statewide name ID. I think she'd be our best bet right now, or perhaps former guv (1.5 months) and lt guv Roger Wilson. Another credible statewide Dem.
We could make a race out of it. For now though, this one is Talent's to lose. Isn't it nice when you benefit from the lowest of expectations Senator?
PA- This is the big one for Democrats. Santorum has got to go, and the Dems will never have a better chance to get rid of him. Despite Bush visiting the state over 20 times, perhaps more than 30 times, he could not convince PA folks to re-elect his sorry ass. Santorum will not have Bush coattails, a successful war on Iraq, nor the visual evidence of the sun blowing up b/c gay marriage allowed in MA, to campaign on. Whether its Barbara Hafer, Bob Casey Jr, or another Democrat, i don't care. Whomever it is, I urge all PA Democrats, Independents and sane Republicans, to vote for him/her. Santorum is dangerous to PA and our country, as a big win for him will no doubt convince him to go for the WH. Let's nip that in the bud right there. This race is a tossup all the way around, Santorum is probably the most likely Republican to get beat this cycle. I would LOVE to see it happen.
RI- Our best bet is for Chafee to pull a Jeffords or just switch to the Democrats. We can talk all we want about how Democratic a state RI is. Yes, and UT is as Republican a state as there can be, yet any Matheson that runs virtually guarantees a competitive race. Even Scott Matheson was even in some state polls in his race for Gov. the Chafee name is a respected one in RI. The polls say Langevin (what's his first name?) could beat Chafee. That's good. Problem is, 2004 showed us that nominees who emerge from a bloody primary are boosted rather than hurt by it. Specter easily defeated Hoeffel, Demint easily defeated Tenenbaum, Martinez beat Castor. The only nominee for Senate that I can think of that the primary hurt him was Pete Coors in CO. The good news is that Chafee clearly feels threatened by the looming primary challenge, after Specter's narrow escape. That's our card, "Come over to our side and avoid that shit." If he doesn't do that, and survives the primary, I give him an edge over whomever the Democrat is, whether it's Langevin or another. If he retires, the seat is Democratic.
MT- Burns survived last time. No doubt he's sweating bullets right now, watching the MT Dems takeover the State Legislature and the Governor's mansion. I have no clue what his plans are, but I have little doubt that the MT Democratic Party will be after him. If he stays, the race leans R right now. If he goes, tossup. The Democrats in MT have done a great job lately, and I think they can build on that momentum.
VA- If Warner is our nominee, this race tightens and goes down to the wire. If it's anyone else, Allen has an easier time. VA is still Southern, and still conservative. But it's certainly a place becoming more hospitable to Dems. Right now, I'd say Allen has the advantage. Fortunately, the elections are still 1.5 years away.
Every other GOP seat I think is a safe bet to remain safe in GOP hands. Even in TX and KBH goes after Perry. Retirements could make things interesting in OH, AZ and NV, so we'll see.
With all this, right now, I'm predicting at best a 3 seat gain for the Dems, at worst a 3 seat loss. The GOP will have to wait for 2008 before having their shot at the magic number 60.