The 3rd Ohio Congressional District is headquartered in Dayton. Once upon a time, this was a Democratic-leaning district, but Ohio is run top-to-bottom by Republicans, and they did a number on this district. Bush's percentage went from 47 percent to 52 percent.
There is no doubt that Ohio has about the most f-ed up Democratic Party in the union (with the possible exception of Pennsylvania's). Demographically, the state should offer up an even mix of Democratic and Republican statewide holders. Instead, the GOP has 12 of 18 congressional seats and every single statewide executive office. It's downright pathetic.
But there is also no doubt that Ohio will be the most fiercely contested state in upcoming presidential battle. And the state is, quite frankly, a fiscal mess after years of uninterrupted GOP governance. We have the opening we need to start turning the state in our direction.
Races like OH3 will be key to this turnaround. This is a lean-Republican seat, with freshman incumbent GOoPer Mike Turner a fixture in the district for some time (he's a two-term mayor of Dayton, though the city's voters kicked his ass out in 2001 -- to a Democratic woman).
The district had been held a longtime by Democratic Congressman Tony Hall, who accepted a diplomatic appointment to Rome by George Bush leaving the seat open. Given the composition of the newly redistricted CD, Turner won fairly easily against a weak Democratic opponent. In the subsequent two years, Turner has molded himself into a Tom Delay clone, voting with him 96 percent of the time
This time around, the Democratis have put up a more spirited opponent in Jane Mitakides, a successful Dayton-area businesswoman with a long record of involvement with Democratic organizations and campaigns.
As mentioned, the district leans Republican. But that's based on 2000 numbers, when Gore abandoned the state early, dampening Democratic turnout. If the primaries are any indication, the district will be more than competitive.
In Clinton County, 383% of the total number of registered Democrats voted in the Democratic primary, which Republicans pulled their typical 74%
In Warren County, 129% of the total number of registered Democrats voted in the Democratic primary, with Republicans pulling their typical 75%.
In Highland County, 1,194 voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary, over 60% of the total Democratic vote in the 2000 general election.
In Montgomery County, preliminary numbers show over 5,000 new voters turning out for the Democratic primary, in a county that already had a 50.3% [Democratic Performance].
The fundraising picture
isn't great, with Mitakides showing only $26,486 cash on hand at the end of Q4. But inthe same vein, Turner is surprisingly underfunded at this stage of the game, with $195,526 cash on hand. For an incumbent, that's surprisingly weak. And nothing attracts sharks to the water than a thinly funded incumbent,
especially one that is a freshman.
Remember, if you are going to donate, now is a good time to do so (before the end of the quarter). Races like this one serve double duty -- a strong presidential candidate will bolster Democratic chances at the congressional level. While strong Democratic campaigns at the congressional level will bolster the chances of our presidential candidate.