Israel vs. Palestine

The Israeli Prime Minister suffers a serious stroke sending a shockwave through the Middle East, profoundly affecting the course of the peace process but here at DKos it barely causes a ripple? Does Iraq completely engulf the field here, leaving no room to pay attention to the rest of the Middle East? I don't think that's what it is... I think, that despite this site's high aspirations which it usually lives up to, people are afraid to discuss Israel vs. Palestine because they think it's too sensitive.

But that's just the thing. It isn't Israel vs. Palestine; at least not in the minds of many on both sides. Lets not delude ourselves, there is quite clearly a conflict that has no easy resolution, but there are plenty of people on both sides who, while in disagreement on many points, come to the discussion in good faith. This discussion should be one we are having here.

More on the flip.

There are lots of people, and many on DKos I'm sure, who are honest, reasonable, and honorable, on both sides of this debate. I think we are stifling them - every discussion need not descend into people calling each others butchers and terrorists. There are very few saints in this conflict, both sides have their hands dirty, both sides have done unforgivable things. If we want to get caught in that cycle of recriminations we could, there would be merit to points made on both sides, but it leads us nowhere.

I don't know if there will be peace in the Middle East in my lifetime, but there will be a two state solution. Everyone knows pretty much what it's going to look like, even though the devil is very much in the details here. It also doesn't take a genius to recognize that it will not be a just peace, in the sense that the outcome is truly fair, because that outcome is impossible. There are overlapping claims to justice that simply can't be reconciled; we will have to live with a degree of injustice, that's life, but it should be minimized as much as possible.

So where does that leave us here at DKos?

Let me just say this: I'd like to see an open, honest, supportive, and constructive conversation happen here, like it does on many important issues. We - by which I mean those people, like me, who would like to see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict solved as justly as possible, and an end to the violence - all want the same thing. Sure we disagree about many things, that's inevitable, and the whole point of discussion. We need understanding not name calling.

And to get us started:

I'll be the first to admit, as I've posted earlier, that I've got serious reservations about Ariel Sharon and his character as a human being. But I was, before his recent stroke, optimistic for the first time in years, that he was leading the peace process in the right direction. There is cause for skepticism about what Sharon is trying to achieve with the separation wall and it's placement, even though I believe, as a concept it may have some merit.

At the same time, what we witnessed this summer, with the handover of Gaza, was something only Sharon could have achieved. Because of his stature and his history, Sharon was able to withdraw from Gaza in a way that a leftist government could not have. In the same way, Sharon was in a unique position to make peace with the Palestinians because he could make concessions coming from the right that would never be allowed of the left. With the establishment of the centrist Kadima party, Sharon was on the way to forming a coalition government with the Labor party that would have a majority in the Knesset and was well positioned to move towards peace. I believe that this was a major development and a huge opportunity to move towards lasting peace.

Now that Sharon has suffered this stroke, all this is up in the air. It could collapse back to where we were before, or worse. From recent polls however, Netanyahu's Likud party still is only getting 17 seats (of 120) and people are still behind Kadima (37 seats) and, to a lesser extent, Labor (20 seats). It's possible that recent developments have created an inertia in the political and social landscape that do not require Sharon to proceed. Maybe it will succeed better without him. But there is no obvious successor to Sharon, at least none with great credentials (unless you consider Peres' Nobel Peace prize a great credential, but he has failed politically too many times to have much credibility any more; see Bills, Buffalo).

Who will succeed Sharon as the head of Kadima? What will the consequences be - will they still win in the elections? Palestinian elections are coming soon, too. What will the reaction be to events in Israel. Hamas will be running in these elections. How will they do? What will Israel's response be. How will Hamas govern - will they be able to be a political party and conduct terrorist attacks at the same time? How will the respond when they have to lead instead of criticize?

What will happen next is anybody's guess. I'd like to hear yours.