First, the good news. Democratic Party registrations are up 16.33% in Clark County (Las Vegas), and increased a very nice 23.09% in Washoe County (Reno/Sparks). Second, the not so good news: GOP registrations are up 16.22% in Clark County, and 22.07% in Washoe.
If the "registration battle" was this close, this could mean that the "GOTV fracas" could be equally tight.
There are some turnout and non-partisan registration numbers below the fold that might be useful for analyzing what needs to be done to turn Nevada Blue.
All numbers are taken from the Nevada Secretary of States office website.
Nevada Secretary of State
Turnout:
In the 2000 election the percent turnout in Clark County was 69.24%, in Washoe 67.36%. In Douglas (south of Reno/Carson) turn out was 84.63%, and in Nye (southern NV) 66.85% Turnout rates run in the high 60% to one very small county with a 95.36% turnout rate.
Independent Voters:
In the 2000 election there were 570,338 non-partisan voters registered in Clark County, and 183,135 registered in Washoe. The last registration report for 2004 lists 684,313 non-partisan voters in Clark, and 113,975 in Washoe.
In other words, an increase of 29.32% in Clark, and 38.81% in Washoe. Getting the non-partisan vote is crucial.
Independent American/Constitution Party: The only sizeable third party in the state has 19,811 registered voters in Clark County, and 7,055 in Washoe.
Quick 'n Dirty Conclusions:
- Increasing the turnout is going to be "Hard Work." Turnout levels are already high among partisan voters, and extremely high in the rural counties. Bush will count on the rural votes to offset Democratic gains in Clark and Washoe.
- Getting the non-partisans to vote will be the crucial component. Keep those phone banks ringing, and door knobs pounding.
- The strength of the Independent American/Constitution Party vote is a problem for the Bush Campaign. If they stick with Peroutka they take "votes from Bush." Libertarians have 6,240 registered statewide. Should these stay with Badnarik the Bush campaign has more problems. The Green Party has 3,356 registered voters--not enough to cause the Kerry Campaign serious difficulty.
If Bush runs to the right "of Attila the Hun" to get the IA/Const Party vote, he could lose the non-partisan moderates. If he doesn't pick up some of these voters, then the Democratic Party increases loom larger.