The new
Baltimore Sun poll shows Rep. Ben Cardin holding a big lead over Republican Lt. Gov Michael Steele, but tying Kweisi Mfume in the Democratic primary. Mfume slightly trails Steele. 1,008 likely voters (474 for Dem primary poll). Trend lines are from April.
General election
Rep. Ben Cardin (D) - 43% (41%)
Lt. Gov Michael Steele (R) - 32% (37%)
Kweisi Mfume (D) - 38% (43%)
Lt. Gov Michael Steele (R) - 39% (41%)
Primary
Rep. Ben Cardin - 30% (26%)
Kweisi Mfume - 28% (32%)
Alan Lichtman - 2%
Lisa Van Susteren - 2%
Some analysis ...
- Steele has lost support since April. Is this a casualty of the general Republican meltdown? Maybe ... the same poll shows Bush's approval in Maryland at 33%.
- Mfume is losing steam about as fast as Steele. As the article about the poll reminds us, Cardin is outraising him at lightspeed. That's money Cardin will use to build his profile in areas where voters don't know either candidate (60% in Montgomery Co are undecided), while Mfume flails around in the Baltimore area. At the same time, these polls showing Cardin winning the general and Mfume losing it are just what Cardin wants to show donors.
- Cardin is blessed that Rep. Chris Van Hollen is staying out of the race. The two white liberal gadflies might squeeze some of his support, but only at the margins.
- The Maryland GOP would like nothing better than to avoid discussing what they, and Steele, stand for, and instead talk about race for 12 months. Let's nobody indulge them.