CT-Sen: Lieberman's precarious lead, and other campaign udpates

American Research Group. 10/20. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/19 results)

Lieberman (CfL) 49 (47)
Lamont (D) 37 (45)
Schlesinger (R) 8 (2)

In this poll, Lieberman is winning independents 53-33, while Lamont is winning Democrats 62-34. Republicans are breaking Lieberman 66, Lamont 8, and "Other" (which includes Schlesinger) 23.

These numbers I'm told are closer to the Lamont internals, making them a better barometer of the state of the race than that crap Q-poll from last week. 10-12 points seems huge, but in a three-way race, things can turn quite unpredictably.

Let's stipulate a 12-point race. The Lamont people are confident that their ground game is worth 5 points. (They actually have one.) Observers suspect Lieberman's crappy ballot position may cost him 1-2 points, which is why you'll see Lieberman's advertising focused on that in the next two weeks. Let's say Lieberman is successful and limits his losses to 1 point.

Suddenly, we only need to make up six points to make this a neck-and-neck race.

Schlesinger is surging, which this ARG poll started picking up. And he'll get more than 8 points. He should get 15 or so. (Especially with his ballot spot at the top, next to popular incumbent Republican governor Jodi Rell.)

But let's say Schlesinger does more poorly than that, and picks up only 3 more points from Republican voters at Lieberman's expense. That would leave Lamont with the task of taking three points from Lieberman's Democratic base. And if Lamont can't do that, he doesn't deserve to win. Today's final debate should offer an opportunity for Lamont and Schlesinger to both go for the jugular.

Lieberman is going to get squeezed by Lamont on the Left, Schlesinger on the Right, his ballot position, and his lack of ground game.

And if there's any doubt that Lieberman is feeling squeezed, check out this latest ad where Lieberman promises to:

Bring our troops home.

It wasn't too long ago that Joementum wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal titled:

Our Troops Must Stay

The guy will literally say anything to get reelected.

And he'll break whatever campaign finance laws he needs to do so as well.

Petty cash disbursements over $100 are illegal.  So why did the Lieberman campaign need around $387,000 in petty cash during the last few weeks of the primary?  No answer to the question, and no admission of error [...]

The FEC reports are made public so that citizens can know what candidates are spending their money on.  It is amazing to have nearly $400,000 of just plain cash on your FEC report.  Was Lieberman buying votes with the money, using the cash as 'street money'?  Was he paying 'volunteers' to disrupt Lamont events?  Or was it just a large canvass operation where he paid huge numbers of volunteers in, um, cash?  And why is he paying people listed as volunteers?  

The Lieberman campaign claims it doesn't need to document expenditures under $100, which doesn't appear to be right:

A political committee may maintain a petty cash fund out of which it may make expenditures not in excess of $100 to any person per purchase or transaction. If a petty cash fund is maintained, it shall be the duty of the treasurer of the political committee to keep and maintain a written journal of all disbursements. This written journal shall include the name and address of every person to whom any disbursement is made, as well as the date, amount, and purpose of such disbursement. In addition, if any disbursement is made for a candidate, the journal shall include the name of that candidate and the office (including State and Congressional district) sought by such candidate.

We're not talking a couple grand for pizza and soda. This is $387,000 that the Lieberman campaign doesn't want anyone to know how it was spent.

This game ain't over. Not by a longshot.