Polls, polls, polls

FLORIDA (22nd CD)

Research 2000 for the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel. 10/16-19. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Shaw (R) 48
Klein (D) 43

Outside of the Philly-area districts, this may be the most expensive House race this cycle.

ILLINOIS (6th and 8th CDs)

Market Shares. 10/14-18. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

6th CD (open)

Roskam (R) 43
Duckworth (D) 39

8th CD

Bean (D) 50
McSweeney (R) 31

The Bean seat is one of the few legitimate GOP pickup opportunities this cycle. This poll is devastating to those hopes.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (1st and 2nd CDs)

Becker Institute. 10/6-8. Likely voters. MoE above 5% (No trend lines)

1st CD

Bradley (R) 49
Shea-Porter (D) 37

2nd CD

Bass (R) 39
Hodes (D) 48

The MoE makes this poll essentially useless. The MoE for the entire state is 5%. Divide that into its two districts and you get what? Way too high.

NEW JERSEY (Senate)

Monmouth U. 10/16-19. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/18-21 results)

Menendez (D) 48 (38)
Kean (R) 39 (44)

This is the latest in a series of polls showing Menendez start to pull away from Kean. As I've said before, NJ voters hate their Democrats, but hate their Republicans even more. They've been flirting with Kean, but they are pulling away as election day closes.

The last serious poll to show a Kean lead was the Republican's Strategic Vision poll, and that was way back on 10/1.

PENNSYLVANIA (10th CD)

Momentum Analysis (D) for Chris Carney. 10/9-11. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (5/20-23 results)

Sherwood (R) 37 (38)
Carney (D) 52 (47)

A DCCC poll last week gave Carney a 51-37 lead. The independent Constituent Dynamics poll in late August gave Carney a 50-43 lead. A Lycoming College poll in late September gave Carney a 47-38 lead.