Today's contest in Wisconsin will show how much independent voters matter in the overall race, given that Wisconsin has an open primary where voters do not have to register as members of a party in order to vote in that party's primary. John Edwards is clearly hoping that his moderate appeal to independents will help offset John Kerry's support among rank-and-file Democrats, while Howard Dean hopes his stand on the Iraq war pulls in those who are most unhappy with Bush. Frankly, all three are basically not all that far apart from each other on economic and health care issues, and it's the image each candidate projects that matters more. (Dennis Kucinich on the other hand distinguishes himself by having a far more progressive agenda, and he may do better than expected in a state that had a significant turnout for Nader in 2000, although Dean's opposition to the Iraq war cuts into his support. Al Sharpton will likely do well among black voters in Milwaukee and Madison, but he's not going to get more than 2% of the vote in the state.)
No matter which candidate wins in Wisconsin, a large turnout of independents today will indicate that Bush is in trouble in the state come November. Given that Al Gore won Wisconsin by only 5,000 votes in 2000, that would certainly be good tidings for Democrats, and reason to be hopeful in similar swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. Democrats can't win the White House in November without help from independent voters, and neither can Republicans. The exit poll results from Wisconsin will be especially interesting to both parties for precisely that reason.