TN-Sen: Why I've given up on this race

The goal is to win the Senate, that's six races. Seven if we want a Lieberman-proof majority. That's a tough sell.

We're looking great in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. We're neck and neck in Virginia, Missouri, and Montana. (Though Dems are really worried about Montana, one of the few states that is trending away from us in internal polling.)

We run the board (tough to do), we've got our majority right there. So we need to look at where we can grab a seventh seat. Call it the "Lieberman-insurance" seat, or merely "majority" insurance since winning all three of VA, MO, and MT will be tough.

Tennessee was that seat. But the last week Ford's numbers are cratering while Jim Pederson's numbers in Arizona are on the upswing.

So strategically, I'm now more interested in Arizona than I am in Tennessee (which I think is lost). Look at the numbers in Tennessee:

Rasmussen poll not yet released, taken sometime midweek. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/30)

Corker (R) 53 (48)
Ford (D) 45 (47)

That is a catastrophic collapse. And Rasmussen ain't the only operation to capture this collapse. Look at other very recent independent polling in the race:

Zogby:

Corker (R) 53 (40)
Ford (D) 43 (40)

CNN:

Corker (R) 52
Ford (D) 44

Yeah, there's an internal DSCC poll showing Ford with the lead, but it's an outlier. All other data points in the race show this thing trending away this last week. And it's the trends that are damning. In Connecticut and Arizona, our guy is on the rise, giving hope that we can close the gaps. Here in Tennessee, Ford is headed in the wrong direction.

This race is all but lost. And that proclamation has nothing to do with Ford or his politics or anything other than the numbers. Mayor Corker couldn't even keep the 9-1-1 system in Chattanooga running. And he's going to be a Senator? What a joke. Ford would obviously be preferable.

But alas, I (and most of you) don't get to make that decision.

Race tracker wiki: TN-Sen