Daily Kos

This is a wave election. Dems are winning. Be optimistic!

Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 06:17:59 PM PDT

There is a lot of angst here about a Dem win in this election. The election has yet to occur, BUT there are many, many signs that Dems are moving toward a big win.

A quick look at the map says that Dems are ascendent at the House level, in many areas.  Paccione (CO4) is moving up. Hayworth (AZ5) is behind.  Wyoming and Nebraska are in play. CN is a toss-up. Half of Idaho is thinking about voting Dem.

Look at this as a long-term effort.  Dems are regaining their chops in rural areas!

Take a look at the CQPolitics map.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/....

What I see is that, in a wave election (and I've listened to Charlie Cook say this a couple of times) undecideds tend to move toward the challenger, we have the chance to retain/remake the map as Blue in these land areas:

-All of NV, WV, WY, CO, MN, NH, NE(!), ND, SD, ME, VT, RI, MA
-80% of AZ, NY, WI
-70% of TN
-60% of OH, MI, KY
-50% of IN, GA, NC, SC, ID(!), IA, NC, SC, MS, PA, FL
-30% of TX, KS, LA, NM, WA, OR, CA, AL(?)

I don't know if I missed some, but from my POV of re-enfranchising the rural/working-class voter, Dems are doing exceedingly well.  This is cause, to me, for HUGE optimism.

Land area is important to me as shows a more discrete/basic view of the political world.  It also illustrates the mythical monolith of Deep South and Western R solidarity is exactly that, a myth.

The Senate and Gov races are the percolation up of this grass-roots opportunity (Though the western state Gov successes are amazing in and of themselves.).

I would just caution that this seems to be an opportunity, not a mandate.

Tags: 2006 Elections, Red states, Blue states (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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