The latest poll out of California, by the respected Public Policy Institute of California, shows Kerry/Edwards up 16 over Bush/Cheney, 54-38 (Gore won by roughly 12 points in 2000). K/E are up 64-25 among independents, 68-26 among Latinos, and 58-34 among women.
Perhaps most interesting is that liberals are more engaged in the election than are conservatives, and that voters of all stripes are much more engaged than they were at this time 4 years ago.
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/S_804MBCAGS.pdf