If Obama Runs...

Fill in the blank:

A) He wins big, ushering in a new era in which both party and race are less important than individuals.

B) He wins small, stumbling into office at the end of a campaign season that paints him as a radical and heightens tensions.

C) He loses, leaving behind feelings that America is still too fixated on race to put a man with either Obama's name or skin tone into office.

Before I give the absolutely true, completely indisputable answer.  Let me share this with you.

Folks, there is just no way for Kerry to win this thing that doesn't involve at least two other candidates sharing a small aircraft.  I'm sorry.  A year ago I was solidly in Kerry's camp.  But he's over.

For Edwards, the first chance to get a score won't appear until his home state comes up on May 4.  There is no other state in which Edwards leads.  If there's a mystery in this campaign, it has to be the non-success of the Edward's campaign.  I went to hear him talk last winter.  Good speaker.  Passionate.  People were lining up to give him money.  Heck, I gave him money.  But there is no remaining scenario on this Earth that sees John Edwards to the White House.

Who wrote this trite piece of idiocy?  I did.  

Not only was I wrong on a scale so huge it would make Donald Rumsfeld blush, but this stellar prediction was made only two months before the Iowa caucuses, using polling data from a dozen different sources.  

So, the only answer I can give to the question above is: D) I have no idea what would happen.  

We can certainly speculate all we want.  I sure intend to do so.  After all, I'm a junkie or I wouldn't be here, and what's the use of polls if not to run endless scenarios of who what might win here, or there, and what might come next?  

But if you're convinced that there's no way that Hillary can win, you're wrong.  If you're convinced that Al Gore would have a cakewalk if he entered the race, you're wrong.  If you're convinced Bayh or Vilsack or (God help us) Biden has no chance, you're wrong.

And if you go so far as to make some ridiculous prediction like

It's cold coffee for the Kerry and Edwards supporters, but at this point every moment they stay in the race, every dollar they spend attacking other candidates, and every second of air time they deflect will only help George W. Bush.

don't be surprised if someone doesn't shove it back in your face some bitter Wednesday morning when Hillary or Evan or Tom comes up the big winner in Iowa.  When you end up as a volunteer on someone's campaign in the fall (as I did for Kerry), it's really better if you haven't called the boss a dimwit.  

And just in case you haven't seen just how wrong I was, I'll give you one more sample.

In the big Super Tuesday states, it's Clark and Lieberman that have the current edge.  Should they manage the projected wins before Feb. 7 and keep these numbers, it could well be Clark and Lieberman dueling down the line.

With foresight like that, it's a wonder Fox didn't sign me up as a commentator.