Last night I had a brief conversation with my step-mother who expressed grave doubt about Kerry's chances. At first I was shocked, but after speaking with her, I quickly realized that the only information she had to go on, like many Americans, was the Gallup polls. She sees that Kerry is trailing by one or two points, and thinks that that's how it's going to come down on election day. I have to fill her in on what is really happening in this election, so I wrote my comprehensive explanation of why Kerry will win. This is basically the speech I give to anyone I encounter with doubts, only written out in more detailed and cohesive form. Before I send this to my stepmother, I'd like to hear your thoughts, edits, additions... I think I need more for the "debates" section, if anyone wants to add to that.
What we're seeing in this election is every sign pointing to a Kerry victory, and almost no sign that Bush can win.
THE POLLS
The head to head matchups show that the race is tied. Some polls show a slim Kerry margin, others show a slim Bush margin. But we have to understand that the head to head matchup numbers don't tell us much. In mid October of 2000, some polls showed that Bush had a twelve point lead over Gore, and Gore ended up winning the popular vote. It is widely accepted amongst political scientists that the best numbers to look at are the right-track/wrong-track numbers. If a majority of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, that usually spells very bad news for the incumbent. Right now, over 60% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Another indicator that is closely watched is the incumbent's approval ratings. No modern president has ever been reelected with an approval rating lower than 50% at any time during the election year. Right now Bush's approval ratings are at 44%, which is where they've been through most of 2004.
Many people are comparing this election to the Carter/Reagan election in 1980, because the head to head matchups were tied, or showed a slim lead for the incumbent, but he had low approval ratings, and the majority of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction. Another reason that this year is similar to 1980 is the success the challenger has had in appealing to the voters. That brings us to the next reason Kerry will win.
THE DEBATES
62 million people tuned into watch the first debate, and they witnessed the most decisive victory since Kennedy debated Nixon in 1960. Kerry's internals (likability, strong leader, etc...) doubled overnight. Bush's internals faultered. Anecdotes came out about lifelong Republicans gritting their teeth and and asking for absentee ballots so they could cast an early vote for Kerry. After two more strong showings in the debates by Kerry, polls now show that people see Kerry as more presidential than the president! Essentially, the voters were disatisfied with the incumbent and needed to feel reassured about the challenger. Kerry masterfully accomplished that goal. What's left is to make sure people get out and vote for him.
THE OPERATION
This year the Democrats have outregistered Republicans by two to one margins. Even the Republicans admit that they have been trounced in the registration war. This is by far the most massive get out the vote effort in the history of our democracy. And generally, these people are not reflected in the polls, which tend to only count people who have voted in previous elections. But even though this group has been discounted in the polls, when asked, they answer that they are taking a strong interest in this election, and that they intend to vote this time. If these people come out and vote, they will choose Kerry over Bush by two to one margins. So not only is Kerry tied in head to head matchups, but he has millions of additional voters waiting in the wings who will probably vote for him, and also the undecideds who historically tend to break for the incumbent.
But what does Bush need to win? After losing the popular vote in 2000, he needs every single person who voted for him four years ago and more. But instead what we're seeing is one constituency after the next slipping away from him. In 2000, Bush split the young-people's vote with Gore. Now that group is going to Kerry by overwhelming margins. In 2000, Bush had the libertarian group, but his attacks on civil liberties have alienated them. In 2000, Bush had the latino and Cuban vote in places like Florida, but now we're seeing significant numbers of that population peel away from him. Bush also had the Arab and Muslim vote in 2000, and I don't have to tell you what happened with that group. Most importantly, military families are very angry with Bush and now they're breaking away from him too. And there's no question that Bush will not have the same support from active soldiers that he had in 2000. So how can a candidate who lost the popular vote four years ago win reelection if he's losing constiuencies? His only hope has been to shore up his base -- make appeals to the four-million evangelical Christians who didn't vote last election. However, with Bush's own Methodist church fellowship coming out and charging him with crime, immorality, disobedience to pastoral instruction, and violation of Methodist social principles, and urging him to "repent publically," Bush's inroads in the evangelical Christian group is highly questionable.
CLOSING
Why Kerry will win:
The right-track/wrong-track and approval ratings spell disaster for Bush. The head to head matchups are not strong enough to overcome the undecideds who will break for Kerry. The voters feel confident in Kerry's ability to lead the nation. The Democrats have the best ground game in the history of the United States. And Bush simply doesn't have the support to win.