(Cross-posted on the
BetterCA blog)
In any election, campaigns work hard to spin polls to their advantage. In California's special election, Arnold's team -lead by Mike Murphy- is doing so poorly that they 're no longer grounding their claims in reality. We've worked to point out their ridiculous statements throughout the campaign, but now even Republican polling experts are dismissing Arnold's campaign's claims that they are leading the polls and have the momentum.
The Flash Report, a conservative political website and blog, has published an interview they conducted with Arnold Steinberg. Steinberg is a a long time Republican strategist and polling expert. The editor himself expresses shock at the candid answers he received.
Here are few salient passages. The whole thing is a fascinating read.
Even if Field says the governor, the governor will still lose. Sometimes Field actually can be correct, especially this late when Field expands sample size and tries to interview voters and more likely voters.. In other words, I find such data about these four propsotions generally plausible, but hardly because Field says so. I do not find credible the claims of the governor's pollster and his team that they have been gaining. Such polling would be incompetent or fraudulent. More likely, they're just spinning. The fact that Field, PPIC, and the Times are all in agreement is quite compelling. Moreover, there is at least some attempt at the Times to screen for likely voters, and they probably use a multi-question screen that has proven its worth. Of course, it's true that criteria for turnout may change, especially for a general election.
(emphasis mine)
Steinberg practically calls Murphy a liar. It is, Steinberg says, "compelling" that all three major polling outfits show us leading. It's something we've pointed out all along. There are no guarantees, but the real numbers make Murphy's claims all-the-more laughable.
But, I think the governor's fundraisers and his consultants are a little carried away with their spinning, but I can't tell you the number of super-rich donors I've talked to who are otherwise not stupid or gullible who buy into these preposterous lines about hidden liberal conspiracies in public polls, Republican votes, voter turnout. I was stunned a couple of weeks ago to see what I regard as totally phony numbers on a conservative website -- in effect, a statement that the governor's "internal" numbers were the same as the silly Survey USA results. I think the bloggers or website columnists were acting in totally good faith, but they've been had. I wonder where their sense of outrage is. This is not mere spinning.
Internal numbers are just that, and if you're reading them in the paper, you shouldn't take them at face value. They simply are not reliable, and if they've been leaked, it's usually because the campaign leaking them needs to refute a public poll. Some of the more conservative bloggers out there tend to simply repeat what they have been told. In the case of those touting Mike "The Elf Master" Murphy's numbers - well, "they've been had". Will they actually pay attention to Steinberg or just ignore reality? It doesn't really matter - the Field, PPIC, and L.A. Times polls all show that the public's rejected the governor's agenda.
Steinberg's criticism goes beyond the Schwarzenegger campaign's attempts to spin their non-exsistant polling numbers...
I have no numbers, nor am I involved right now in taking my statewide surveys. But there was no reason for a special election. It's a hard sell, as confirmed for the nth time by the Times survey just out. You can't sell a ballot proposition, let alone, four propositions, for a special election that people feel is a farce. This was a lousy idea from the beginning. And we all know it's easier to get voters to vote no than vote yes. So, what were they thinking? With his awful numbers, slating with him was dumb. The numbers in today's Times poll are not aberration. The TV spots were pedestrian.
With that, Steinberg gets to the heart of the problem. It is extremely difficult to get people to vote for your propositions when they think the whole election is pointless to begin with. The Governor's handlers squandered any goodwill they had when Arnold' reneged on his promises to be "different". Now they are paying the price. If the governor expects to coast to re-election next year, he's got another thing coming. And that is putting it mildly.
Read the whole thing. It is long, but it's intelligently written and really insightful.
Update [2005-11-2 20:20:33 by Alliance for a Better California]: Drew and I will be liveblogging the forum in Sacrmaneto tonight at the
BetterCA blog starting at 6pm PST. Arnold and some Alliance representatives will be speaking. Arnold started calling us liars today so Drew whipped up this little photoshop in honor.