The
AP is reporting that at least 49 people are dead from a series of suicide car bombings at a resort city in the southern Sinai Pennisula in Egypt. It appears that there were at least three large car bombs, two against a hotel that is commonly used by international tourists, and a third at an mini-bus stop several miles away. More information is needed beofre analysis can truly begin.
However, this is the largest act of terrorism in Egypt since 1998 and Al-Quaida's ideology of fighting the far enemy (namely the United States) instead of the near enemy of the secular governments of the Middle East was formed by the experience of Islamist radicals in Egypt. In the course of almost a decade, heavy fighting by government forces and tough police crackdowns drove the allies of Bin Laden and several Al-Quaida precursor groups underground, out of the country or into their own shallow unmarked graves. Al-Quaida believes that they can not defeat the near enemies as long as the local governments receive financial, logistical and military support from the United States.
If this is an Al-Quaida operation, it is curious that they are operating again in Egypt despite the history of defeat there. Is this merely a target of opportunity, or a copy cat cell of disaffected but previously non-active radicals seeking to gain post-facto acceptance into Al-Quaida, or is this a calculation that the far enemy has been overextended and is incapable of providing sufficient support to the governments that have actively and successfully fought against Al-Quaida in the past?
Additionally, I would want to wait for the investigation to get moving and see if the Class of '05 problem is beginning to rear its ugly head as there is a growing pool of young radicals who have gained signifcant car bombing and attack experience in Iraq that has had enough time to exfilitrate out of Iraq and back into their home countries. Reading the initial AP report, it seems that the three car bombs went off in fairly short order, which is a common tactic in Iraq. More information is needed.
Further analysis and information will be updated at the Unpaid Punditry Corps