I admit that my Tivo catches every CSI, and Numbers, and a fair share of other formulaic detective style shows. I like that every once in a while they can suprise me, and its good mind candy to decompress from the day. I think, like many Americans, I want to believe that law enforcement and government agencies are filled with dedicated, smart people who have the technology and problem solving skills to track down the elements in our society that with us harm. I also understand that the gap between reality and fiction is wider than we may expect. Even now some FBI agents do not have email and many of the tools in the labs are not available to any department not in a major city. My belief is that criminals aren't caught because they weren't smart enough, but because they just can't outsmart the combine manpower and diligence of law enforcement.
That being said, I am dismayed to hear about the unauthorized wiretapping, not primarily because it is illegal, and intrudes the privacy of American citizens, but because it points to a something far worse. Real life investigations focus on very specific relationships between suspects. You find the individuals through what is associated with them, their associates, money, property, travel, and organizations they are members of. The net widens as the investigators make the connections and winnow out the dead ends. The first Trade Center bombing started with a frame number and license plate from the rental van used to deliver the explosives. It widened from their to connect the van to the individuals involved and eventually to the entire network.
Instead we have a program that tracks everyone indiscriminatly, massive amounts of information in what has been described as possibly the largest database ever created. It is completely backwards from how its done. Which suggests a couple things, first, the database has other uses which have nothing to do with terrorism. Or Second, they have no clue what they are doing, and no suspects. Again and again I hear the "Bubba" crowd saying they do not care if the NSA is listening in on their calls, the quote is usually something along the line of "they would be bored to tears" but it begs the question, if they are listening to your calls, and you have no connections to terrorists, why are they wasting their time at all? the answer goes back to how data mining works, and how inneffective it is for this kind of problem. Its just too much data if you include every call ever made. Don't think you can be connected to a terrorist? How about this scenario, you travel to another city and catch a cab to the hotel. the driver is a nice guy, and he gives you his card if you need to go anywhere while you are in town. He seems like a nice enough person, so you call him a few times to go out, and to travel to business meetings.
He has no connection to terrorism, Was born in the US, and loves it here. But he has a roomate, who also is not a terrorist, but who has a brother in Yemen, who is a terrorist. They chat about family once a once. You are now connected, and you are only 2 places removed. A real investigation will winnow you out pretty quicky, because it will start with the guy in Yemen, and probably stop at the brother....But Data mining just shows connections, so it gets you, and everyone you have ever called, including your family and friends. thats just one more step away, then add everyone connected to you has called. Now thats just one node, try to investigate all those people, and waste the manpower indiscriminately.
This all supposes that, like 14 year old girls, the terrorists cannot function without phones, computers, or even mail. Which we know is not true. It supposes that the terrorists are dumber, less dedicated, and inflexible in how they operate. Which we know is not true. Worse, it assumes that we must trust an administration that has been dumber, less dedicated, and inflexible in how they operate, to place the right tools and personell in place to catch these individuals. An administration that has been wrong about everything so far, WMDs, insurgencies, and interpretation of the law. Finally, something we know is true.