As excited as I already am about the next Presidential race in 2008, I CAN'T WAIT to get started on the 2006 midterms that will come up next year. Our party has gotten it's ass kicked in the last two elections (No, Fox News, 2000 was NOT a bad night for Democrats), but 2006 will be the year to start climbing out of the hole. What can we do?
It seems so stupid, so simple, and so blatantly obvious that I hesitated for a while to even talk about this. How does the party set goals? How does the DCCC sit down and say, "This is our goal for the year, this is how we are going to win?" I'm not a big name consultant, so I wouldn't know. But I wonder if the simplest manner of goal setting was done. Not just "We're taking back the House, rah rah sis boom bah", but real goals. Achievable goals. Something to keep us, our party activists, our donor base and our volunteer armies MOTIVATED to keep going. As I am no longer willing to just sit back and watch the DCCC at work (though I did work for them in SD in April and May of last year), I, in the air conditioned boredom of my office during a Mardi Gras holiday that I did not get, have come up with at least ideas of what our goals should be.
Howard Dean's all but certain victory in the DNC Chairman's race will help us out dramatically. Say what you want about TMAC on policy and spinelessness, he was a hell of a fundraiser. That's all fine and dandy, but that was pretty much the limit of his talents. Dean has the ability to fundraise quite well, AND, and I believe can drive up the enthusiasm necessary to compete in areas that we otherwise couldn't.
Looking back over the 2004 House results and comparing them with results as far back as 1998, I am going to list some races that should be targeted. Then I will list my goals on what we should shoot for, (besides the obvious, beat all Republicans save all Democrats.) First the Republicans.
Heather Wilson NM 1
Phil Gingrey GA-11
Bob Beauprez CO-7
M. Musgrave CO-4
Chris Chocola IN-2
J.Hostettler IN-8
Mike Sodrel IN-9
Ann Northrup KY-3
R. Baker LA-6
C.Boustany LA-7
J. Nussle IA-1
J. Leach IA-2
T. Latham IA-4
R. Renzi AZ-1
R. Pombo CA-11
D. Dreir CA-26
R. Keller FL-8
K. Harris FL-13
C. Shaw FL-22
H. Hyde IL-6
J. Nollenburg MI-9
T. McCotter MI-11
M. Kennedy MN-6
J. Porter NV-3
S. Garrett NJ-5
M. Ferguson NJ-7
V. Fosella NY-13
T. Reynolds NY-26
R. Kuhl NY-29
V. Foxx NC-05
R. Hayes NC-08
C. Taylor NC-11
M. Oxley OH-4
J. Gerlach PA-06
C. Weldon PA-07
M. FitzPatrick PA-08
T. Drake VA-02
R. Simmons CT-02
C. Shays CT-04
This is roughly 35-40 Republicans that can be taken down. And that's a very preliminary list from someone doing only basic research in the CNN election archives. I didn't even go into all 50 states (remember I'm at work).
I won't go into Democrats to defend in detail, but the obvious ones include Melissa Bean, Stephanie Herseth, Charlie Melancon, and any Democrat that won with less than 60% of the vote and who's opponent got more than 40%.
Onto the goals. Personally this is what I think it should look something like.
1) INCREASE # OF COMPETITIVE RACES- by looking at the list I made, by no means a complete one you see as many names as there were competitives seats in the last election. Add the Democrats to defend, plus open retirement seats, and instead of 30 to 40 competitive seats, you've got 60-70 minimum. That's definetly an acoomplishable goal and a good one. Not just a "feel good, attaboy goal."
2) MAKE GOALS BASED ON DEMOGRAPHICS - this is where the party strategists would take over, as the options are many. What do you want to do? Do you want to keep it general? "We have these 40 Republicans that can be beat. Let's fight for all 40, but let's make it our goal to win 27 of these 40." (or whatever number one likes). With Democrats, "Ok, we have these 40 that could be taken out. Let's fight to protect all of them, but lets set the goal of protecting 35"
We could get more specific. Want to whittle it down to regions?
"Let's make it a goal to pick up 2 of the competitive 3 GOP seats in IN."
Or, "In districts won by Bush in 04, lets make it our goal to win 70% of the targeted races."
"Let's eliminate competitive Republicans from the NE."
"Let's gain 10 Southern House seats."
"Let's protect all Dem Incumbents in the South."
I think you get the idea.
We can also have some fun. In addition to party goals, takeover of the House, and world dominance (what the hell!) let's have a couple of fun ones.
"Ok, here are 5 high ranking House Republicans, and 5 of the Longest Serving. Here's an additional goal. Knock out two of these." This is where campaigns like Richard Morrison and Jeff Seeman come in. They can win, and imagine the euphoria of Democrats in Congress and around the country if Delay, or Roy Blunt, or Ralph Regula were taken out. We did it this past year with Melissa Bean knocking out Phil Crane who's been in Congress since men walked on the moon. And (not to make us all vomit) but imagine the GOP and their elation at knocking out Daschle.
3) GET SPECIFIC- and I think I've covered that here. But it does nothing to go on TV and say "We're taking back the House." At 9PM on election night in 02, Terry McAuliffe was still insisting that Democrats could take the House back. Rather than sound like I would hope our party chairman sounds, he came across as a damned fool who had just "gotten his" at the hands of the GOP.
4) COHERENT MESSAGES IF POSSIBLE- we have to face it, in some districts, our candidates will have to move a bit to the right on SOME issues. But the DCCC should not be struggling to come up with basic ideas of why the country should elect Democrats. It's been our problem since 2000. We're off to a great start with the squashing of Bush's SS plan (so far). People have to hear everywhere why it would be great to have Democrats. The candidates themselves can tweak their own messages, but a national message, indeed a national IDENTITY, is the responsibility of our leaders in DC. (and of course, folks like us here at Dkos)
Goals work for precisely one reason. A committed bunch of people like political activists won't rest until they are accomplished. This plan, if it can be done, gives folks several goals, that often interlap, particularly b/w Congressional races and statewide races.
"Ok, we've got the 34,000 votes out of this county for the governor, but we're still short 10,000 ID's for our Congressional candidate and 5,000 ID's for our state senate candidate."
See what I mean? This way, the work DOES NOT STOP. B/C your goals and other campaigns goals are often worked on at the same time.
This is just a long what if type diary about my ideas and suggestions. Comments please. I sincerely do believe that we can take everything back in the next few years, with focus and dedication. But we need to set the goals now, establish the playing field now, and beat them NOW. Howard Dean's election as DNC Chairman is the first step.
Am I silly? Too specific to really be worth it? Or is it a good idea?