NYT On Zarqawi - Fight Them There So We Can Fight Them Here

Terrorists Trained by Zarqawi Went Abroad, Jordan Says

At the time of his death, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was still trying to transform his organization from one focused on the Iraqi insurgency into a global operation capable of striking far beyond Iraq's borders, intelligence experts here and in the West agree.

His recruiting efforts, according to high-ranking Jordanian security officials interviewed Saturday, were threefold: He sought volunteers to fight in Iraq and others to become suicide bombers there, but he also recruited about 300 who went to Iraq for terrorist training and sent them back to their home countries, where they await orders to carry out strikes.

Although the role Zarqawi played in the multi-tag team wrestling match that we created in Iraq was exaggerated, his effect on the rest of the world still remains to be seen.

When we decided not to go after him pre Iraq war, one of the things that brought him up on the radar was his attempting to use ricin in Europe.

In June 2002, U.S. officials say intelligence had revealed that Zarqawi and members of al-Qaida had set up a weapons lab at Kirma, in northern Iraq, producing deadly ricin and cyanide.

The Pentagon quickly drafted plans to attack the camp with cruise missiles and airstrikes and sent it to the White House, where, according to U.S. government sources, the plan was debated to death in the National Security Council.

`People were more obsessed with developing the coalition to overthrow Saddam than to execute the president's policy of pre-emption against terrorists.'

-- Roger Cressey
Terrorism expert
"Here we had targets, we had opportunities, we had a country willing to support casualties, or risk casualties after 9/11 and we still didn't do it," said Michael O'Hanlon, military analyst with the Brookings Institution.

Four months later, intelligence showed Zarqawi was planning to use ricin in terrorist attacks in Europe.

The Pentagon drew up a second strike plan, and the White House again killed it.  By then the administration had set its course for war with Iraq.

It seems the Flypaper heory might not be working. We might be having a problem with what the CIA calls the Class Of '05 Problem.

The United States Central Intelligence Agency defines the Class of '05 problem as the possibility that Western dissidents could become insurgents in postwar Iraq and use the fighting as an opportunity for military training against the United States and its allies, increasing the likelihood and magnitude of future terrorist attacks. The New Republic summarizes the problem thus:

   

A Parisian or Milanese jihadist wannabe can now learn online which mosque in Syria to visit in order to meet the right middleman to smuggle him into Iraq, wherea  Anbar province-based terrorist cells are eager for new recruits. Once in Iraq, he can learn all about remote-detonated improvised explosive devices and urban combat--extremely valuable skills for him to take back home, where he can pass them along to his associates. In May, classified CIA and State Department analyses warned about the serious threat that such terrorist "bleed out" from Iraq poses to U.S. national security.

It has been hard to figure out what of the Zarqawi legend has been real and what has been Psy-Ops. I don't know how the propagandists will spin a subsequent attack in Europe or the U.S. by one of his followers. We don't have the "Flypaper Theory" in action. If terrorists were mosquitoes,  we are executing the "Standing Water" theory. Our little stagnant puddle in Iraq is a breeding ground.