OK, I know everybody is wondering what the heck is going to happen, and of course, nobody can be sure. But I can tell you a few things I have learned recently that may reduce the information gap (and anxiety levels):
First, Chris Suellentrop of Slate, a super reporter who was one of the many buzzing around late Saturday night at the Hotel Fort Des Moines, was kind enough to email me directly to confirm that the 65% first-time caucus-goers rumor is not a rumor -- it's a fact, according to what Tim Connolly, Dean's Iowa field director, told Chris. But see his full story at Slate.com, and my thanks to Chris for the assist. (Note to Markos: Can you provide the Slate link here?) (ED: Here's the link.)
Second, a very sharp political insider whose name I would prefer to keep out of the blog (but you'll have to just trust me that s/he's good), told me that the Kerry campaign has a precinct captain lined up in about 1,500 of the 1,993 precincts where caucusing takes place tonight -- that's about 3/4ths of the precincts. But s/he also said that Dean is almost certainly ready with a captain (and maybe "two deep") in every precinct. Again, these are the organizational advantages of having more money and staff and time invested here for a longer period.
Again, go back and see what I wrote earlier: It takes a lot of time to work thru, clean, target, and contact the state voter list. This is why, as some of you are reporting to me - from comments made on TV that I simply do not have time or opportunity to catch while covering things and driving in between - that most of the pundits are reflexively picking Dean.
But as the Eagles learned yesterday, the games are played on the field, not on paper. All those coordinating calls and rides-to-the-polls operations have to work today for Dean to exploit his organizational advantages. So, it's still a big test for Dean - a test to prove his organizational strength. If this thing were another week or two, perhaps the others could close the organizational gap that Dean and Gephardt enjoy.
But that's the paradox: It didn't get closer until election day itself got closer, and the media and Iowans started to tune in to a greater degree. So, in the end, what Iowa becomes is a huge, huge gamble akin to going "all in" in Texas No-Limit poker without seeing the public cards shared by all players known as "the flop": A candidate invests for the long term, building an infrastructure weeks or months in advance (his "hole cards"), all in the hopes that his or her message, as finally broadcast and commented upon and heard and dissected by media and voters, is winning enough to multiply by that organization to win. That is, the formula is Message x Resources, as compared to the political capitalization of a primary, which is more akin to Message + Resources. In other words, a caucus is more multiplicative in terms of the field component, whereas in a primary the field element is more additive. (With apologies for admittedly oversimplify -- not to mention talking like a geeky political science guy that I am trained to be...)
And this is why the "forget-Iowa" strategy opted for by McCain in 2000 and Clark in 2004 is very, very smart -- precisely because it's lower risk. Gephardt has gambled everything (the word is he's too broke to proceed even if he DOES win today), and it still will not be worth anything to him because he has no place and no resources to go from here. He's been drawn into a large bet and does not have enough strength in his whole cards to collect the pot. Clark folded, and plays another hand -- although incidentally, as this same insider correctly reminded me, looking to the next deal, the Kerry rise hurts Clark most. (But I'll have to do some posting from home, between IA and NH, to talk about this at length.)
Frankly, I think this inherent paradox could be another argument against the Iowa system. Yes, on one hand it selects for the candidate who has both organization and message, which is good vetting process for screening out those incapable of tackling a general election fight. But it also puts a high premium on organization at the expense of message, which is why the whole disquisition that began my blogging (about how Iowa is less relevant historically than people realize) makes more sense to me now than before I ever set foot in this state. So, even though Edwards' message and Kerry's resume are resonating more than Dean's right, at least as I see it, to quote Bill Murray at the end of Meatballs, "it just doesn't matter."