The Daily Kos World Cup 2006

With the world's largest sporting event set to start in a mere two days, I figured I'd look at the World Cup from a distinctly Kossite perspective.  In this diary I will analyze the Cup based on their freedom ratings (courtesy of Freedom House) http://www.freedomhouse.org/...  Before folks start attacking Freedom House, yes it does get money from the Scaifes and Steve Forbes is on the board of directors... On the other hand, it gets a ton of money from George Soros and the Vice Chairman is Stu Eizenstat (from the Clinton Administration).  It tries hard to be purely nonpartisan (after all they're simply rating other countries based on set crtieria).

With that in mind, analysis on the flipside...

Group A Consists of Germany, Costa Rica, Poland and Ecuador.  This is a really free group, with Germany, Costa Rica and Poland all scoring a 2 (lower is better) and Ecuador scoring a 6.  When a tiebreaker is needed, I'll defer to seedings.  Consequently, Group A goes to Germany with Poland advancing in 2nd.

Group B Consists of England, Paraguay, Trinidad & Tobago and Sweden.  Here, England and Sweden both score 2, with Trinidad and Tobago scoring a 5 and Paraguay, a 6.  England wins the group with Sweden advancing.

Group C Consists of Argentina, Ivory Coast, Serbia and Montenegro and Netherlands.  Turns out the "Group of Death" is fairly easy to predict.  Netherlands is going to take this group with a score of 2 and Argentina will advance with a score of 4.  Serbia and Montenegro's 5 and Ivory Coast's 12 (ouch) just don't compete.

Group D Consists of Mexico, Iran, Angola, and Portugal.  This group is easy too--very unfree countries Iran (scoring 12) and Angola (scoring 11) aren't even competetive with Portgual who wins the group (scoring 2) and Mexico who advances (scoring 4).

Group E Consists of Italy, the US, Ghana and the Czech Republic.  We reside in the most free group in the World Cup, with Italy, the US and the Czech Republic all scoring a 2 and Ghana scoring a 3.  Because the US might be set for a Freedom House downgrade due to excessive wiretapping, taxation, restrictions on abortion and marriage, and general non-freedomness, Italy wins Group E with the Czech Republic advancing.

Group F Consists of Brazil, Croatia, Japan and Australia.  Group F is home of the biggest upsets as Australia wins the group with a score of 2 and Japan advances with a 3.  Brazil and Croatia, the two group favorites, each scored 4 and have to go home.  Ronaldinho is just devastated.

Group G Consists of France, Switzerland, South Korea and Togo.  The favorites advance here with France winning the group (scoring 2) and Switzerland advancing (also scoring 2).  South Korea (scoring 3) and Togo (scoring 11) just don't match up.

Finally, Group H features Spain, Ukraine, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is the single least free country in the entire world cup (scoring 13) and Tunisia (scoring 11) doesn't fare much better.  As a result Spain advances (scoring 2) and Ukraine finishes scoring (scoring 5).

That sets up some interesting matchups in the knockout rounds:

Germany vs. Sweden
England vs. Poland
Netherlands vs. Mexico
Portugal vs. Argentina
Italy vs. Japan
Australia vs. Czech Republic
France vs. Ukraine
Spain vs. Switzerland

To determine who should advance from here, you'll have to wait for the next diary...