Updated Weekly Senate Rankings

Following is my weekly updated ranking of all of the senate races in 2006.  The races are ranked by most likely to switch parties and I have separate rankings for seats currently held by Democrats and seats currently held by Republicans.  Last week's rankings are here (I've dumped the color coding because it seemed to cause some problems on certain browsers).

Changes from last week:

Ohio and Rhode Island swap spots (with Ohio moving to the 3rd most vulnerable Republican seat and Rhode Island now 4th).  A series of recent polls show Sherrod Brown up on DeWine (including a number over the margin of error).  Both races are toss-ups to lean dem though.

Virginia and Nevada swap spots (with Virginia moving to the 7th most vulnerable Republican seat and Nevada now 8th).  Macaca-gate is likely to take at least somewhat of a toll on Allen.  Plus, a recent Nevada poll shows Carter still trailing Ensign by 21, suggesting the Rasmussen poll with the race within single digits may have been an outlier.

Texas and Maine move ahead of Wyoming (with Texas moving to the 11th most vulnerable Republican seat, Maine the 12th, and Wyoming now 13th).  None of these races are competitive, but Dale Groutage's failure to have his pre-primary filing on file with the FEC concerns me about the status of his campaign.  Radnofsky at least seems to have the basics down and, although Olympia Snowe is very popular and is not facing a serious challenge, it is blue state Maine.

New York and Delaware swap spots (with New York moving to the 15th most vulnerable Democratic seat and Delaware now 16th).  Again, these races are not competitive.  But, Hillary's negatives are higher than Carper's and with the high media attention on Hillary it seems there is at least more chance of movement in that race.

Close to changing:

It is hard to rank the Democratic seats that are in play:  New Jersey, Maryland, Minnesota, Washington and Michigan seem to be clearly the seats that are competitive, but in what order?

New Jersey.  I've kept New Jersey first because Menendez is an incumbent (if even for less than a year) and has approval numbers at 45, plus the polls have been consistently close.

Maryland. Maryland has had a number of reasonably close polls out lately as well (if Mfumei wins Maryland will move to first).

Minnesota. Minnesota may move down shortly, the recent polls consistently have Klobuchar with a significant lead.  Still, she has a high-profile opponent who has plenty of cash on hand.

Washington. The most recents polls in Washington have looked quite good for Cantwell, but she is still an incumbent with an approval rating below 50 and, although leading in polls by double digits, is still not polling above the 50 point mark.

Michigan. Some recent polls in Michigan have shown cause for concern.  I now consider the Michigan race leans Democratic as opposed to likely Democratic.  Still, Stabenow's approval rating is sitting at 50 and her net approval is 11.  Her opponent also needs to make up a significant cash on hand disadvantage to seize on any weakness Stabenow might have.

The approval numbers are from SurveyUSA's most recent 50-state tracking poll and are as of July 25.  The polling numbers are the most recent from Rasmussen in addition to the most recent non-Rasmussen poll I could find (no partisan funded polls included and no online Zogby).  Cash on hand numbers are the Second Quarter numbers filed with the FEC and are current as of June 30 unless otherwise noted.

Without further ado, my (somewhat subjective) rankings:

Republican-Held Seats

Rank	State	Seat	Approval Rating	Candidates	Rasmussen Poll	Other Poll	Money Race (COH)
1	Pennsylvania	Rick Santorum	43 - 50	Republican Rick Santorum Democrat Bob Casey	Casey 50 Santorum 39 (7/26)	Casey 45 Santorum 39 (8/14)	Santorum $9.4 million Casey $5.2 million
2	Montana	Conrad Burns	37 - 57	Republican Conrad Burns Democrat Jon Tester	Tester 47 Burns 47 (8/8)	Tester 45 Burns 42 (5/24)	Burns $2.2 million Tester $0.5 million
3	Ohio	Mike DeWine	45 - 45	Republican Mike DeWine Democrat Sherrod Brown	Brown 44 DeWine 42 (7/27)	Brown 49 DeWine 41 (8/5)	DeWine $6.6 million Brown $3.7 million
4	Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee	48 - 46	Republican Lincoln Chafee or Steve Laffey Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse	Whitehouse 44 Chafee 38 (8/3)	Whitehouse 38 Chafee 37 (6/26)	Whitehouse $1.8 million Chafee $1.3 million
5	Missouri	Jim Talent	49 - 44	Republican Jim Talent Democrat Claire McCaskill	McCaskill 45 Talent 42 (7/20)	McCaskill 47 Talent 46 (8/14)	Talent $6.9 million McCaskill $2.7 million (Through 7/19)
6	Tennessee	Bill Frist	Retiring	Republican Bob Corker Democrat Harold Ford	Corker 48 Ford 42 (8/10)	Corker 49 Ford 36 (7/19)	Ford $1.8 million Corker $1.2 million (Through 7/14)
7	Virginia	George Allen	51 - 39	Republican George Allen Democrat James Webb	Allen 50 Webb 39 (7/18)	Allen 48 Webb 32 (7/27)	Allen $6.6 million Webb $0.4 million
8	Nevada	John Ensign	52 - 38	Republican John Ensign Democrat Jack Carter	Ensign 46 Carter 39 (7/31)	Ensign 54 Carter 33 (8/12)	Ensign $3.2 million Carter $0.4 million (Through 7/26)
9	Arizona	Jon Kyl	47 - 40	Republican Jon Kyl Democrat Jim Pederson	Kyl 53 Pederson 34 (7/18)	Kyl 45 Pederson 27 (7/21)	Kyl $7.1 million Pederson $1.7 million
10	Utah	Orrin Hatch	58 - 37	Republican Orrin Hatch Democrat Pete Ashdown	No Poll Available	Hatch 63 Ashdown 21 (7/20)	Hatch $2.5 million Ashdown $13,000
11	Texas	Kay Bailey Hutchison	60 - 31	Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky	Hutchison 61 Radnofsky 31 (8/3)	None	Hutchison $9.2 million Radnofsky $0.3 million
12	Maine	Olympia Snowe	72 - 24	Republican Olympia Snowe Democrat Jean Hay Bright	Snowe 69 Bright 22 (7/19)	Snowe 68 Bright 10 (7/21)	Snowe $2.2 million Bright $100
13	Wyoming	Craig Thomas	62 - 29	Republican Craig Thomas Democrat Dale Groutage	Thomas 59 Groutage 32 (7/6)	None	Thomas $1.0 million Groutage $8,000 (Through 8/2 for Thomas)
14	Mississippi	Trent Lott	68 - 28	Republican Trent Lott Democrat Erik Fleming	Lott 66 Fleming 29 (2/13)	None	Lott $2.0 million Fleming $600
15	Indiana	Dick Lugar	65 - 29	Republican Dick Lugar	No Opposition	No Opposition	Lugar $4.0 million

Democratic-Held Seats

Rank	State	Seat	Approval Rating	Candidates	Rasmussen Poll	Other Poll	Money Race (COH)
1	New Jersey	Bob Menendez	45 - 39	Democrat Bob Menendez Republican Tom Kean	Menendez 44 Kean 38 (7/25)	Menendez 43 Kean 40 (7/16)	Menendez $7.4 million Kean $2.3 million
2	Maryland	Paul Sarbanes	Retiring	Democrat Ben Cardin or Kweisi Mfume Republican Michael Steele	Cardin 47 Steele 42 (8/17)	Cardin 43 Steele 35 (8/2)	Steele $3.0 million Cardin $2.3 million
3	Minnesota	Mark Dayton	Retiring	Democrat Amy Klobuchar Republican Mark Kennedy	Klobuchar 50 Kennedy 38 (8/1)	Klobuchar 47 Kennedy 42 (7/23)	Kennedy $4.1 million Klobuchar $3.5 million
4	Washington	Maria Cantwell	49 - 43	Democrat Maria Cantwell Republican Mike McGavick	Cantwell 48 McGavick 37 (8/1)	Cantwell 47 McGavick 33 (7/13)	Cantwell $6.4 million McGavick $1.1 million
5	Michigan	Debbie Stabenow	50 - 39	Democrat Debbie Stabenow Republican Michael Bouchard	Stabenow 49 Bouchard 44 (8/10)	Stabenow 54 Bouchard 42 (8/14)	Stabenow $4.4 million Bouchard $0.5 million (Through 7/19)
6	Nebraska	Ben Nelson	68 - 27	Democrat Ben Nelson Republican Pete Ricketts	Nelson 55 Ricketts 32 (8/10)	None	Nelson $2.1 million Ricketts $1.1 million
7	West Virginia	Robert Byrd	64 - 33	Democrat Robert Byrd Republican John Raese	Byrd 56 Raese 32 (8/1)	Byrd 59 Raese 30 (5/22)	Byrd $2.6 million Raese $0.2 million
8	Vermont	Jim Jeffords	Retiring	Independent Bernie Sanders Republican Richard Tarrant	Sanders 62 Tarrant 34 (8/3)	Sanders 56 Tarrant 35 (7/27)	Sanders $2.0 million Tarrant $0.8 million
9	Florida	Bill Nelson	48 - 33	Democrat Bill Nelson Republican Katherine Harris	Nelson 61 Harris 33 (7/25)	Nelson 60 Harris 25 (8/9)	Nelson $12.1 million Harris $2.6 million
10	Connecticut	Joe Lieberman	54 - 41	Democrat Ned Lamont Republican Alan Schlesinger Independent Joe Lieberman	Lieberman 46 Lamont 41 Schlesinger 6 (8/10)	Lieberman 53 Lamont 41 Schlesinger 4 (8/14)	Lieberman $3.5 million Lamont $0.4 million Schlesinger $76,000 (Through 7/19)
11	North Dakota	Kent Conrad	72 - 23	Democrat Kent Conrad Republican Dwight Grotberg	Conrad 57 Grotberg 35 (1/25)	None	Conrad $3.5 million Grotberg $19,000
12	New Mexico	Jeff Bingaman	58 - 33	Democrat Jeff Bingaman Republican Allen McCulloch	Bingaman 59 McCulloch 33 (6/27)	None	Bingaman $1.8 million McCulloch $2,000
13	Wisconsin	Herb Kohl	57 - 33	Democrat Herb Kohl Republican Robert Lorge	Kohl 60 Lorge 27 (7/12)	Kohl 63 Lorge 14 (7/2)	Kohl $2.0 million Lorge $1,000
14	California	Dianne Feinstein	57 - 34	Democrat Dianne Feinstein Republican Dick Mountjoy	Feinstein 60 Mountjoy 33 (7/5)	Feinstein 56 Mountjoy 34 (7/23)	Feinstein $8.0 million Mountjoy $21,000
15	New York	Hillary Clinton	62 - 36	Democrat Hillary Clinton Republican John Spencer or KT McFarland	Clinton 61 Spencer 31 (7/31)	Clinton 58 Spencer 32 (8/3)	Clinton $22.0 million Spencer $0.6 million
16	Delaware	Tom Carper	62 - 31	Democrat Tom Carper Republican Jan Ting or Mike Protack	No Polling Available	None	Carper $2.5 million Ting $78,000
17	Hawaii	Daniel Akaka	51 - 43	Democrat Daniel Akaka or Ed Case Republican Jerry Coffee or Mark Beatty	Akaka 58 Coffee 30 (7/31)	None	Akaka $1.0 million Coffee (No Report)
18	Massachusetts	Ted Kennedy	59 - 37	Democrat Ted Kennedy Republican Kenneth Chase	No Polling Available	None	Kennedy $8.7 million Chase $34,000