Here's the latest from the ARG NH tracking poll.
Dean: 37%
Kerry: 15%
Clark: 13%
Lieberman: 6%
Gephardt: 5%
Undecided: 19%
Assume this is how it stays until the primary election. What's the best outcome for Dean.
I see two senarios:
- Dean wins, Kerry in second, Clark in third close behind Kerry.
- Dean wins, Clark in second, Kerry third either close to Clark or collapsing to Lieberman levels as his campaign continues to implode.
I think option #1 would be best for Dean because Kerry will not be able to translate his second place finish (mostly likey losing to Dean by a dozen points or more) into momentium going into South Carolina on Feb 3. This delays the emmergence of the "anti-Dean" candidate by another week and lets Dean consolidate his strength as he moves on to SC, ND, AZ, NM, OK, etc.
Option #2, with Clark passing Kerry and placing second is more problematic for Dean. Clark moves from a momentium-boosting second and defeat of a favored son candidate in New Hampshire to a position of strength in South Carolina, where he could then beat Dean and drag the primaries out into February or early March.