I have a bit of a theory as to why Kaine pulled out a solid 5% win over Kilgore, but the other Dems didn't quite eke out victories tonight in Lt. Governor and AG spots.
My theory is this: a number of GOP-leaning voters decided to engage in a protest vote. These voters, tired of GOP extremism, corruption and incompetence, took out their displeasure on the highest-profile target: Kilgore. But they otherwise split their tickets.
I'm basing this theory on the fact that a normally-reliable GOP voter from Virginia that I know personally told me that he was going to do just that.
Now, I'm not saying this was the entirety of the reason for the split victory. Clearly, Kaine was a moderate who was able to latch onto the Warner legacy, whereas the other candidates may not have been able to do the same, or may not have run very effective campaigns. Moreover, Kilgore (in the ads I saw up here in Maryland) came off as a bit of a right-wing nut; the other Republican candidates may have seemed more moderate.
Any thoughts? And what does this bode for the GOP in general in 2006, if anything?