Assessing 2008 candidates: the "coattail" effect

One reason I am blissfully unwilling to pick sides in the presidential race is that I want the candidates to prove that they can help build their local Democratic Parties and deliver Democratic victories beyond their own. I want to see a real coattail effect in action -- critical as we look to the long-term rebuilding of the national Democratic Party.

Several of our 2008 hopefuls have an opportunity to prove their mettle on this category:

Bayh
Indiana has become one of the hottest battlegrounds in the battle for Congress, with competitive races in the IN-02, IN-08, and IN-09 districts. Furthermore, Democrats have a real shot at taking control of the Indiana House, which is currently 48-52, Democratic/Republican.

Bayh remains personally popular in the state, and he controls its party machinery. A couple of lower-level party people in Indiana told me the state's machine seems more focused on Bayh's presidential ambitions than the three hot races. Bayh has an opportunity to prove his detractors wrong and demonstrate that he can be a powerful force toward rebuilding his state's tattered Democratic Party and helping us win back control of Congress.

Clinton
Clinton has her work cut out for her. The governor's race needs no assistance. But Democrats are legitimately competitive in a stunning six House seats in the state -- NY-03, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, and NY-29. That's nothing to sneeze at. Then there's the state-level races, a 27-35 disadvantage in the New York Senate can be overcome in a Democratic rout.

Clinton may not be able to give cash to these Democratic challengers (there are legal limits), but she (along with Spitzer) can fund the most lavish GOTV operation in the history of the state, if they so choose. And with no serious top-of-the-ticket Republicans to fund GOP turnout or drive Republicans to the polls, Hillary can help completely transform the state and Congress.

Edwards
North Carolina has great pickup opportunities in NC-08 and NC-11. Edwards is one of those guys (like Clark) that campaign for Dems all over the country. But North Carolina is a state that is trending Blue, and Edwards can help speed up that transformation.

Richardson
I lost a bit of respect for Richardson when he failed to help deliver New Mexico to Kerry in 2004. He can start making up for it by helping deliver NM-01 to the Democratic column this November. Both chambers of the state legislature are already under Democratic control, and they should stay that way.

Vilsack
Like Richardson, Vlsack gets a strike for failing to deliver Iowa in 2004. Like Warner in 2005, Vilsack can help protect his legacy by helping keep the governor's office in Democratic hands, as well as pick up IA-01. The Iowa legislature may be the tightest in the nation. Democrats trail 49-51 in the state House, while the Senate is 25-25. Can Vilsack help Dems make gains at that level?

Warner
Warner already proved himself in 2005 by helping hold the governor's seat in a tough state, and making Democratic gains in the state legislature for the second election cycle in a row -- something not seen in recent memory. But, we all have short memories in politics, so those victories will be a distant memory unless he can reinforce them. And what better way to do that than to help Jim Webb take out Felix Macaca Allen?  

It would be a twofer -- he'd prove that he really has that "map changer" ability his campaign likes to tout, while also riding himself of one his potential 2008 foes. [Update] And there are competitive House races in Virginia as well, like VA-02.

And, a bonus, but future candidate:

Schweitzer
The Montana governor is not running in 2008. He's got big things planned for his state. But I suspect he has future presidential ambitions (2012 or 2016 depending on how we do in '08), and I'd like to see those encouraged as much as possible.

Schweitzer has three tough tasks facing him this year -- he needs to help deliver the Senate seat to Jon Tester, he needs to see his anti-corruption initiative pass, and he needs to protect razor-thin margins in the state legislature (50-50 in the House, 27-23 in the Senate). One of the key Schweitzer selling points as he builds his national image for a future run is that he can transform the most radically red areas into beautiful blue. This year, we get to see whether 2004 was a fluke, or whether Schweitzer really is the real deal.

Update: People ask in the comments, "where is candidate X?" Well, the other candidates don't seem to have as many opportunities to prove their coattails. There are no competitive races in Delaware, so Biden is out. Same with Kerry and Massachussets. Dodd threw in with Lieberman and we saw how well that turned out for him. Clark doesn't have a home base of support. It's not like he's a political institution in Arkansas. I forgot about the open seat in WI-08, so that might be Feingold's place to show some coattails. Daschle could help pass the reversal of his state's draconian abortion ban.

As for Gore, he's not running. If he starts considering a bid, I'll adapt accordingly.