Updated Weekly Senate Rankings (Hello Democratic Senate)

OK, so the headline is clearly overly optimistic.  But the recent news is very good and seems to be getting better (a Laffey win and I would be dancing in the streets).

Following is my weekly updated ranking of all of the Senate races in 2006.  Included is a discussion on changes from last week and other notes from the last week of news for the Senate campaigns.  Last week's rankings are here.

Changes from last week:

Arizona and Nevada swap spots (with Arizona moving to the 8th most vulnerable Republican seat and Nevada now 9th).  Their doesn't seem to be much movement in the Nevada race and Rasmussen's poll a while back that had Carter within 7 looks more and more like an outlier.  The money race is more favorable in Arizona and the polling there generally has Kyl under 50.  Both of these races need a jolt to become truly competitive.

Connecticut (now the 6th most vulnerable Democratic seat).  This is obviously an odd race for these sort of rankings.  There is, of course, no chance whatsoever that the Republican candidate will win which would suggest that it should be ranked close to last among vulnerable Democratic seats.  However, I gave it some thought this week and I think it is properly placed as the 6th most vulnerable.  Other than the top 5 ranked Dem seats (which have, at one time or another, showed some level of competitiveness) the rest of the Democratic seats are not competitive races.  No chance that Dems lose those seats.  Although Lieberman has promised to caucus with the Dems if he wins, I would say that the off-chance that he ends up switching to caucus with the Republicans is greater than the off chance that a Republican in the races I rank 7-18 wins.

Close to changing:

Tennessee and Missouri.  It is hard to believe that Tennessee might actually become more of a pick up opportunity than Missouri which has been ultra-competitive since day one.  But that day may actually come.  Recent polls either have Ford in the lead or within the margin of error; Corker has a scandal to deal with; and, importantly, Ford has more cash on hand.  Missouri remains very tight, with the most recent polls showing McCaskill up within the margin of error.  Missouri will clearly go down to the wire and is the better pick up opportunity now.  But it's possible Ford may be able to upon a steady lead if the race in Tennessee continues on its current path.

Montana and Ohio.  Most prognosticators have Montana listed as a more likely pick up opportunity than Ohio.  I can definitely understand the thinking.  But I have had Ohio ranked as the more likely pick up lately because the polls in Ohio have been more consistently in favor of Brown than the polls in Montana have been in favor of Tester.  However, a yet to be released Rasmussen poll has Tester up 52-43 on Burns.  If other polls confirm that Tester leads Burns by that margin (especially if Tester starts polling over 50) then Montana will pass Ohio shortly (and may even pass Pennsylvania).

Other notes:

Yet to be released Rasmussen polls.  Some very interesting (and all good news!) Rasmussen polls that have yet to be released to non-subscribers:  Connecticut -- Lieberman only up 2 on Lamont; Montana -- Tester up 9 on Burns;  Ohio -- Brown up 6 on DeWine.  Specific numbers are in the chart.

Seven Republican seats seriously at risk.  There can be no question now that there are 7 Republican seats that have a serious chance of going Dem.  Pennsylvania, Ohio and Montana can actually be considered Leans Democratic races with the Dems consistently polling leads outside the margin of error.  Rhode Island is tight, but probably leans slightly Dem (too bad Laffey didn't win).  Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia are all basically toss-ups.  It's amazing that we have gotten to this point when only a month ago it was difficult to find magical 6th seat Dems needed to take control.

One Democratic seat seriously at risk.  New Jersey is really the only Dem seat that is in serious jeopardy at this point.  Kean has polled slight leads lately and Menendez has corruption issues.  Maryland and Minnesota are competitive, but clearly lean Dem (I would say more so than Tennessee or Virginia lean Republican at this point).  Michigan and Washington are looking safer and safer by the week.

If the election were held today.  I am going to go out on a limb and say that, as of today, I would project Democratic pick-ups in Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, Rhode Island, Missouri and Tennessee with no Republican pick ups.  This would give Democrats control of the Senate.  It's optimistic, but there is strong support for this outcome.  New Jersey and Virginia are the next most likely races to flip.

The races are ranked by most likely to switch parties and I have separate rankings for seats currently held by Democrats and seats currently held by Republicans.  The approval numbers are from SurveyUSA's most recent 50-state tracking poll and are as of August 17.  The polling numbers are the most recent from Rasmussen in addition to the most recent non-Rasmussen poll I could find (no partisan funded polls included and no online Zogby).  Also included is the composite numbers from the last 5 polls taken in the race according to Pollster.com.  Cash on hand numbers are the Second Quarter numbers filed with the FEC and are current as of June 30 unless otherwise noted.

Without further ado, my (somewhat subjective) rankings:

Republican-Held Seats

 

Rank	State	Seat	Approval Rating	Candidates	Rasmussen Poll	Other Poll	Pollster.com	Money Race (COH)
1	Pennsylvania	Rick Santorum	48 - 45	Republican Rick Santorum Democrat Bob Casey	Casey 48 Santorum 40 (8/22)	Casey 56 Santorum 38 (8/27)	Casey 51 Santorum 40	Santorum $9.4 million Casey $5.2 million
2	Ohio	Mike DeWine	42 - 48	Republican Mike DeWine Democrat Sherrod Brown	Brown 47 DeWine 41 (9/14)	Brown 46 DeWine 40 (8/27)	Brown 46 DeWine 40	DeWine $6.6 million Brown $3.7 million
3	Montana	Conrad Burns	39 - 55	Republican Conrad Burns Democrat Jon Tester	Tester 52 Burns 43 (9/13)	Tester 48 Burns 45 (8/27)	Tester 47 Burns 44	Burns $2.2 million Tester $0.5 million
4	Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee	51 - 44	Republican Lincoln Chafee Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse	Whitehouse 44 Chafee 42 (8/23)	Chafee 43 Whitehouse 42 (8/21)	Whitehouse 43 Chafee 40	Whitehouse $1.5 million Chafee $0.8 million (Through 8/23)
5	Missouri	Jim Talent	52 - 41	Republican Jim Talent Democrat Claire McCaskill	McCaskill 45 Talent 42 (9/12)	McCaskill 48 Talent 47 (9/13)	Talent 48 McCaskill 45	Talent $6.9 million McCaskill $2.7 million (Through 7/19)
6	Tennessee	Bill Frist	Retiring	Republican Bob Corker Democrat Harold Ford	Corker 45 Ford 44 (9/5)	Ford 48 Corker 45 (9/11)	Ford 45 Corker 45	Ford $1.8 million Corker $1.2 million (Through 7/14)
7	Virginia	George Allen	51 - 38	Republican George Allen Democrat James Webb	Allen 50 Webb 43 (9/12)	Allen 48 Webb 45 (9/12)	Webb 46 Allen 46	Allen $6.6 million Webb $0.4 million
8	Arizona	Jon Kyl	53 - 36	Republican Jon Kyl Democrat Jim Pederson	Kyl 52 Pederson 35 (8/24)	Kyl 46 Pederson 36 (8/29)	Kyl 49 Pederson 40	Kyl $6.7 million Pederson $1.5 million (Through 8/23)
9	Nevada	John Ensign	50 - 38	Republican John Ensign Democrat Jack Carter	Ensign 46 Carter 39 (7/31)	Ensign 54 Carter 33 (8/12)	Ensign 50 Carter 38	Ensign $3.2 million Carter $0.4 million (Through 7/26)
10	Texas	Kay Bailey Hutchison	61 - 32	Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky	Hutchison 58 Radnofsky 32 (8/31)	None	Hutchison 55 Radnofsky 35	Hutchison $9.2 million Radnofsky $0.3 million
11	Utah	Orrin Hatch	60 - 34	Republican Orrin Hatch Democrat Pete Ashdown	No Poll Available	Hatch 61 Ashdown 27 (8/28)	Hatch 63 Ashdown 21	Hatch $2.5 million Ashdown $13,000
12	Maine	Olympia Snowe	72 - 24	Republican Olympia Snowe Democrat Jean Hay Bright	Snowe 68 Bright 20 (8/17)	Snowe 68 Bright 10 (7/21)	Snowe 64 Bright 24	Snowe $2.2 million Bright $100
13	Wyoming	Craig Thomas	61 - 31	Republican Craig Thomas Democrat Dale Groutage	Thomas 59 Groutage 32 (7/6)	None	Thomas 62 Groutage 29	Thomas $1.0 million Groutage $4,000 (Through 8/2)
14	Mississippi	Trent Lott	66 - 31	Republican Trent Lott Democrat Erik Fleming	Lott 66 Fleming 29 (2/13)	None	N/A	Lott $2.0 million Fleming $600
15	Indiana	Dick Lugar	59 - 33	Republican Dick Lugar	No Opposition	No Opposition	N/A	Lugar $4.0 million

Democratic-Held Seats

 

Rank	State	Seat	Approval Rating	Candidates	Rasmussen Poll	Other Poll	Pollster.com	Money Race (COH)
1	New Jersey	Bob Menendez	42 - 43	Democrat Bob Menendez Republican Tom Kean	Kean 44 Menendez 39 (8/30)	Kean 43 Menendez 39 (8/27)	Kean 42 Menendez 40	Menendez $7.4 million Kean $2.3 million
2	Maryland	Paul Sarbanes	Retiring	Democrat Ben Cardin Republican Michael Steele	Cardin 47 Steele 42 (8/9)	Cardin 44 Steele 39 (8/25)	Cardin 47 Steele 40	Steele $3.1 million Cardin $1.6 million (Through 8/23)
3	Minnesota	Mark Dayton	Retiring	Democrat Amy Klobuchar Republican Mark Kennedy	Klobuchar 47 Kennedy 40 (8/28)	Klobuchar 50 Kennedy 40 (8/27)	Klobuchar 49 Kennedy 41	Kennedy $3.4 million Klobuchar $3.0 million (Through 8/23)
4	Michigan	Debbie Stabenow	51 - 42	Democrat Debbie Stabenow Republican Michael Bouchard	Stabenow 51 Bouchard 43 (8/31)	Stabenow 54 Bouchard 34 (9/12)	Stabenow 50 Bouchard 41	Stabenow $4.4 million Bouchard $0.5 million (Through 7/19)
5	Washington	Maria Cantwell	55 - 38	Democrat Maria Cantwell Republican Mike McGavick	Cantwell 52 McGavick 35 (9/6)	Cantwell 56 McGavick 39 (8/27)	Cantwell 52 McGavick 39	Cantwell $6.4 million McGavick $1.1 million
6	Connecticut	Joe Lieberman	53 - 43	Democrat Ned Lamont Republican Alan Schlesinger Independent Joe Lieberman	Lieberman 45 Lamont 43 Schlesinger 6 (9/14)	Lieberman 51 Lamont 38 Schlesinger 7 (9/11)	Lieberman 48 Lamont 39 Schlesinger 4	Lieberman $3.5 million Lamont $0.4 million Schlesinger $76,000 (Through 7/19)
7	Nebraska	Ben Nelson	67 - 27	Democrat Ben Nelson Republican Pete Ricketts	Nelson 55 Ricketts 32 (8/10)	None	Nelson 54 Ricketts 33	Nelson $2.1 million Ricketts $1.1 million
8	West Virginia	Robert Byrd	65 - 32	Democrat Robert Byrd Republican John Raese	Byrd 63 Raese 30 (9/5)	Byrd 59 Raese 30 (5/22)	Byrd 59 Raese 31	Byrd $2.6 million Raese $0.2 million
9	Vermont	Jim Jeffords	Retiring	Independent Bernie Sanders Republican Richard Tarrant	Sanders 62 Tarrant 34 (8/3)	Sanders 56 Tarrant 35 (7/27)	Sanders 63 Tarrant 29	Sanders $1.7 million Tarrant $0.5 million (Through 8/23)
10	Florida	Bill Nelson	47 - 38	Democrat Bill Nelson Republican Katherine Harris	Nelson 57 Harris 34 (8/28)	Nelson 53 Harris 38 (9/13)	Nelson 57 Harris 29	Nelson $12.1 million Harris $2.2 million (Through 8/16)
11	North Dakota	Kent Conrad	74 - 21	Democrat Kent Conrad Republican Dwight Grotberg	Conrad 57 Grotberg 35 (1/25)	None	N/A	Conrad $3.5 million Grotberg $19,000
12	California	Dianne Feinstein	53 - 42	Democrat Dianne Feinstein Republican Dick Mountjoy	Feinstein 58 Mountjoy 35 (9/7)	Feinstein 56 Mountjoy 34 (8/27)	Feinstein 54 Mountjoy 32	Feinstein $8.0 million Mountjoy $21,000
13	Wisconsin	Herb Kohl	56 - 37	Democrat Herb Kohl Republican Robert Lorge	Kohl 59 Lorge 31 (8/10)	Kohl 63 Lorge 14 (7/2)	Kohl 57 Lorge 30	Kohl $1.6 million Lorge $2,000 (Through 8/23)
14	New Mexico	Jeff Bingaman	57 - 33	Democrat Jeff Bingaman Republican Allen McCulloch	Bingaman 56 McCulloch 32 (9/12)	None	Bingaman 58 McCulloch 30	Bingaman $1.8 million McCulloch $2,000
15	New York	Hillary Clinton	61 - 35	Democrat Hillary Clinton Republican John Spencer	Clinton 61 Spencer 31 (7/31)	Clinton 62 Spencer 32 (9/7)	Clinton 58 Spencer 33	Clinton $22.2 million Spencer $0.8 million (Through 8/23)
16	Delaware	Tom Carper	59 - 30	Democrat Tom Carper Republican Jan Ting	No Polling Available	None	N/A	Carper $2.5 million Ting $53,000 (Through 8/23)
17	Hawaii	Daniel Akaka	51 - 40	Democrat Daniel Akaka or Ed Case Republican Jerry Coffee or Mark Beatty	Akaka 58 Coffee 30 (7/31)	None	Akaka 58 Coffee 30	Akaka $1.0 million Coffee (No Report)
18	Massachusetts	Ted Kennedy	56 - 40	Democrat Ted Kennedy Republican Kevin Scott or Kenneth Chase	No Polling Available	None	N/A	Kennedy $8.7 million Chase $34,000