Well it looks like all eyes are on (Republic of) Georgia once again.
Click below if you're interested.
Brief History Recap
Nov 2003 - US-backed and partially financed Mikhail Saakashvili leads a coup that overthrows longtime President Eduard Shevardnadze
Jan 2004 - Saakashvili is officially sworn in as President of Georgia
March 14, 2004 - Saakashvili and his posse attempt to enter Batumi, the capital of the autonomous region of Adjara (also spelled Adzharia). Adjara is in every way an independent state except that on paper they are part of the Republic of Georgia.
Adjarans are ethnic Georgians, speak Georgian but are predominately Muslim.
Yesterday I wrote a post about what happened after Saakashvili was turned away by armed police officers from entering Batumi.
Now, a dangerous game is being played. Here's what's at stake:
- Russia has an operating military base in Batumi
- Abashidze, the leader of Adjara since 1990, will never surrender his country to Saakashvili
- A tremendous amount of oil flows through Batumi's port
- Saakashvili has just imposed a total blockage on Batumi's (sea)port and airport
- Turkey and the US won't get involved but generally support Saakashvili
The Globe and Mail as usual has a great analysis of the situation:
Adzharia, a small, mostly Muslim region in Georgia's southwest with historical links to Turkey, has long had the autonomy to run its own affairs, and does not pay taxes to the central government in Tbilisi.
Add that to this:
President
Saakashvili ordered the sanctions after Ajaria failed to meet a deadline on Monday evening to recognise Georgian authority.
He said the sanctions were "very temporary" but admitted they could disrupt shipments of around 200,000 barrels of oil per day from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan that leave via Ajaria's port capital of Batumi.
Will the Russians bite? Will they mobilize their forces to defend Abashidze? Doesn't look like it:
OAO Gazprom is not currently planning to restrict gas supplies to Georgia, a source in the company told Interfax.
The source said that representatives from the Georgian side are negotiating with Gazprom to regulate debt for gas and to ensure that current payments are made.
What the above little article means it that the official Russian state natural gas company is not going to crush the Rep. of Georgia by denying it one of its main sources of heat.
Of course the Russians aren't going to lie down on the issue either:
Moscow mayor Yury Luzhkov arrived in
Batumi, Ajaria Tuesday morning. He was welcomed by the head of the autonomous republic Aslan
Abashidze and other officials, an Interfax correspondent reported.
Luzhkov stopped at David hotel. He refused to contact the press on account of being tired after the flight.
Abashidze promised reporters to appear to them with Luzhkov later in the day.
The Russian Duma isn't pleased either:
A conviction prevails in the State Duma that there exists no forcible solution to the critical situation between Tbilisi and Batumi.
If an attempt at the use of force is undertaken on the part of Tbilisi, the situation in Georgia itself will be aggravated seriously," Duma Vice-Speaker Oleg Morozov told ITAR-TASS.
Duma Vice-Speaker Sergei Baburin is confident that it is impossible to settle relations with Adzharia by force. "Fortunately, even the forces that inciting Saakashvili to repeat Gamsakhurdia's ill-advised experience begin to understand this," said he.
Meanwhile Abashidze has been grasping at straws to try to avoid a defeat:
Ajaria cannot count on protection from Turkey under the Treaty of Kars, Georgian Ambassador to Russia Konstantin Kemularia said at a Monday press conference at the Interfax main office.
"It is senseless to make any comments on the treaty. Its validity expired long ago. Things are completely different nowadays. International relations are based on the realities of the 21st century. Relations between Russia and Turkey, Georgia and Turkey, Georgia and Russia have changed," he said.
"Those who want to reanimate the past and pin hopes on problems in international relations between our ancestors stand no chance," Kemularia said.
"Russia simply must protect Ajaria," Ajarian leader Aslan Abashidze told Interfax earlier. "There is the Treaty of Kars, which stipulates that Turkey will protect the Ajarian autonomous republic. There is also the Moscow Treaty, which entails the same commitments. Russia must [protect Ajaria] under those treaties," Abashidze said.
The US weighs in with its usual limp approach to anything that matters:
US officials said Secretary of State Colin Powell had spoken to Mr Saakashvili and urged him "not to allow the situation in Ajaria to escalate"
Here's what I think:
I think Saakashvili is making a strong play here. Two major political items are up for grabs, with potential benefits on a few others. This is my guess but Georgia will not invade or cause bloodshed. Saakashvili wants Adjara to start paying taxes to Tblisi (capital of Georgia) and/or at least a part of its oil revenue fees. At the same time, Saakashvili wants some of his own men and women to gain a foothold in Adjaran politics. I don't think Saakashvili has any intentions or desires to "rule" Adjara, but Georgia can never operate properly so long as Adjara acts as an independent country.
I think the economic blockade against Adjara, which is supported by Turkey (Adjara's historical friend) and the US, is going to be enough to gain some concessions. The Russians have been stomping their feet and rattling their sabers but I don't think they're ready to spill blood to defend some Georgian-speaking Muslims. I think they want to be left alone and they want their bases to be left alone (including the one in Batumi). I think Saakashvili will crack Abashidze after a week or two of having all foreign petroleum ships turned away and not a cent coming into the state revenue box.
So long as Georgia can prevent some Adjaran "hero" (Adjara is essentially a militia state) from provoking a shootout, I think this crisis will resolve itself peacefully. Saakashvili has made a bold move and I think he will get something for his efforts, whether that's a foothold in Adjaran politics (parliamentary elections are to be held March 28) or a tithe in the form of taxes/customs duties, or both.
My guess is partly based on this statement by Saakashvili:
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said he has no plans to annul Ajaria's autonomy.
"It's a complete lie, which is distributed by the Ajarian authorities for propaganda purposes," Saakashvili said on Monday after meeting with Ajarian intellectuals in Poti.
Time will see but I think we might get lucky and have this resolved without death.
Peace