Some DCCC top 2008 targets

The 2006 House battle was about New England, Pennsylvania, and Indiana -- all three places where Dems made huge gains. In 2008, it looks like the epicenter will be very attainable seats in New Jersey and Michigan.

Van Hollen singled out New Jersey and Michigan as two states where Democrats can remain on the offense for 2008. He named Reps. Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ 02), Tim Walberg (R-MI 07), and Joe Knollenberg (R-MI 09) as top targets for ’08.

Tim Wahlberg won a narrow 51-46 victory, despite having spent $1.16 million to $55,721 spent by his Democratic opponent Sharon Marie Renier. Joe Knollenberg in MI-09 won 52-46 against Dem Nancy Skinner, despite outspending her $2.65 million to $389K.

Another to watch for 2008 is MI-11, where newcomer Dem Tony Trupiano lost to incumbent Thaddeus McCotter 54-43 despite having been outspent $876K to $83K. And if it seems like 11 points is too huge a spread to overcome, consider that in 2004, now-Reps Boyda, Hodes and McNerney lost by 15, 20, and 22 points, respectively. Trupiano impressed me from afar. I'll be watching if 1) he runs, and 2) if the Michigan netroots embraces him. He's got great potential to follow in the footsteps of the above-named Congresspersons.

Meanwhile, New Jersey Dems running for the House can benefit from 1) the presidential-year turnout, and 2) what will likely be another quixotic, yet potentially competitive Senate race.

LoBiondo won easily against his low-profile and underfunded Democratic opponent. yet it's a district that Bush won by a mere 50-49 against Kerry in 2004. Our failure to contest this seat seriously in 2004 was a failure Van Hollen doesn't seem interested in repeating. In NJ-07, netroots candidate Linda Stender came within inches of unseating Michael Ferguson, losing 49-48. The district gave Bush a mere 53-47 Bush advantage, making it a solid contender for pickup in 2008. NJ-03 is a 51-49 Bush district, and another candidate for pickup. Depending on how the political winds blow next year, NJ-04 can also be potentially competitive.

Some other states potentially offering multiple pickup opportunities (based on district partisan performance or incumbent weakness) -- California (4, 24, 25, 26, and 50), New York (3, 13, 23, 25, and 29 -- yes, all remaining GOP-held seats), Ohio (1, 2, 14, 15, and 16), Virginia (2, 10 and 11), and Washington (5 and 8).